Hey Tyler9000!
That was quick! I read that half year article after posting.
Tyler9000 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:07 pm
I personally moved half the short term bonds to REITs in my personal portfolio, but that was several years ago so nothing new or reactionary.
Ouch! That hasn't helped. too bad because leveraged real estate in certain specific sectors has done very well (ie homes, or healthcare). You can make the right call, but still, the index can fail at producing returns. That has been a big take away over the past 18 months.
Tyler9000 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:07 pm
The two portfolios that hurt the least are the ones with commodities allocations as oil has carried the day.
I got lucky/smart because i allocated about 5% of my portfolio with two big oil stocks in 2021. It was because they were such values at the time. No one could have predicted the geopolitical issues, but as a commodity it was clearly being undervalued even without. My big take away here was that even a small percentage right (or wrong) bet can have huge implications for performance in a given year.
I guess I have learned to have fun with more active investing. I'm still down about 8% nominal this year, painful with 8% inflation to boot, but not too bad looking at the passive portfolios.
Tyler9000 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:07 pm
Hopefully there will be more days like today where gold and LT treasuries take off.
Gold has suffered because of the weak dollar and yield increases. I think it'll be ok going forward as we have almost reached max on those in this cycle (because stuff is breaking internationally already). LTT in the US could keep rising a bit, but the losses will be minimized now that we are back to historical norms. (shout out to your article about extremes and convexity).
The biggest lesson I have learned is that there are times to be a bit more passive and times to be a bit more active. Of course, this is also based on the bias that i enjoy learning about and testing these things.
Glad you are doing well! I'll be in TX at some point visiting my friend in Dallas again this winter. Maybe I can drive down and meet up at some point? If you're interest PM me with an email or phone #.