Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Fixing and making things, what tools to get and what skills to learn, ...
Kriegsspiel
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by Kriegsspiel »

Ego wrote:
Sun Mar 06, 2022 6:48 am
https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 022-03-05/



Same for Mastercard. Is this more impactful than SWIFT?

What if this happened to you? Imagine you are a Russian who took the train to Finland and you are suddenly disconnected from your wealth. No way to pay the hotel bill, buy food or pay for transportation. Perhaps you can't even buy a ticket home. How many things you rely on daily, weekly or monthly require a Visa or Mastercard payment? Maybe you do not buy much but do you rely on systems that would collapse as a result of the impact on others? Which ones? How can you robustify? If you were an ERE in Russia what do you wish you had done two weeks ago? Two months ago? Two years ago?
From a Russian perspective, mitigating a financial attack on civilians outside of Russia? That's a tough one. The first two actions that come to mind would be to carry physical currency of the country you're going to. I was going to say traveler's checks, but after a quick googling, they can probably be revoked by the issuing bank (if foreign), or deemed unacceptable by the foreign country you're in.

The second action (inside of Russia) would be to not travel outside of Russia & its allies.

The third (inside Russia) would be to utilize domestic financial institutions, not foreign ones.

Outside of travelling, I think the standard "prepper" checklist would apply. Maintain a bunch of supplies like food, toilet paper, etc. Keep some physical currencies, gold, and silver on hand. I wonder if the Russians may still be fairly well prepared and practiced for the chaos and breakdown of financial/cyber attacks due to their experience with the breakdown of the USSR, especially for personally-produced food.

Aside from their "homesteading" culture, Russia produces a *lot* of food. If they aren't able to export it (speculative), at least they're not going to be starving, they'll just be going without imported goods/services. Russia doesn't import a lot (as a % of GDP), so I don't know if that will affect them that much.

Overall, I'm reminded of the Keynes quote,
I sympathize, therefore, with those who would minimize, rather than with those who would maximize, economic entanglement among nations. Ideas, knowledge, science, hospitality, travel--these are the things which should of their nature be international. But let goods be homespun whenever it is reasonably and conveniently possible, and, above all, let finance be primarily national. Yet, at the same time, those who seek to disembarrass a country of its entanglements should be very slow and wary. It should not be a matter of tearing up roots but of slowly training a plant to grow in a different direction.

For these strong reasons, therefore, I am inclined to the belief that, after the transition is accomplished, a greater measure of national self-sufficiency and economic isolation among countries than existed in 1914 may tend to serve the cause of peace, rather than otherwise. At any rate, the age of economic internationalism was not particularly successful in avoiding war; and if its friends retort, that the imperfection of its success never gave it a fair chance, it is reasonable to point out that a greater success is scarcely probable in the coming years.

Kriegsspiel
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by Kriegsspiel »

One thing I forgot to say, RE Ego's post. I could imagine many Russians wished they had learned more about cryptocurrency, especially how and where they can use it to buy stuff/exchange it for local currency when travelling abroad. Russia, QUITE SUSPICIOUSLY, put in a new law just before they invaded Ukraine to regulate the use of crypto inside Russia, according to Business Insider. So even if you wouldn't be using it in Russia, it might enable travel or purchase of imports.

Admitedly, I'm not too familiar with this. Crypto geeks' input welcome.

white belt
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by white belt »

The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that most military tactical gear is actually not that useful in a bug-out scenario*. Having things like ballistic helmets, body armor, carbines, magazines, and so on are really a liability when the aim is mobility. My earlier post also explains how they attract a lot of attention. As many have stated earlier in this thread, the first strategy for the individual in short-term collapse scenario like Ukraine is to go to a safer area early and before the masses catch on.

I think in our consumerist society, the tendency when thinking about prepping is to just stockpile a ton of special gear. However, if you look at the system I talked about with a transportation PACE, all of that equipment is useful for other activities. There are obvious activities like camping and hiking, which really could just be thought of as mini-exercises to test and improve all processes/equipment with other benefits like physical fitness, getting oneself out in nature, instagram-worthy photo ops, etc. A bicycle with racks is useful for everything from commuting up to bicycle touring. A bicycle trailer is useful for hauling groceries or large items in the day to day. In other words, the idea isn't to buy a bunch of special gear or acquire skills that are only useful in a bug-out/emergency situation, but rather just have useful equipment/skills for daily life that also happen to be even more useful in a bug-out. I think ERE provides the best framework for developing useful skills. I haven't attempted to put such a system into practice so this is all theoretical, but it jives well with the ERE principles.

However, one downside of not having dedicated bug-out equipment is that it might not be prepped on a short notice when it is needed. Therefore, I think another helpful concept is something like alert/threat levels based on the situation. A popular example is how the government does this with DEFCON levels. Maybe something like:

Level 4 - Low Risk (4-8 hour notice) (items still in their day to day configuration, which should already include baseline emergency preparedness)
Level 3 - Medium Risk (2 hour notice) (transportation methods have additional emergency gear, modify activities to reduce distance from home, etc)
Level 2 - High Risk (1 hour notice) (more gear prepped)
Level 1 - Imminent Danger (10 minute notice) (transportation methods are all loaded and ready to depart)

Obviously tweak timelines and details as you see appropriate, but the idea is that you tailor your preparedness to the risk level. Risks could be political like civil unrest, weather-related like a wildfire/hurricane/tornado/blizzard, or military-related like what we see in Ukraine. This system isn't as useful against surprise events, but most of these bug-out situations are actually not that surprising if one is looking for the signs. It's possible you might have false alarms and also have trouble with normalcy bias, so perhaps it's more useful to frame things as "let's go on a weekend camping trip or to visit friends/family in X for a week" instead of "let's evacuate our home because of Y." Worst case is you were wrong but still have an enjoyable trip, which is much better than the alternative.

A related concept is to have set packing lists for specific scenarios. This isn't as good as having everything already packed, but is the next best solution because it means you will be able to quickly gather the essential items without forgetting anything while stressed or rushed. I think this is fairly typical emergency-preparedness advice.

I've been perusing the internet for the basic backpacking gear that would form the foundation for all mobility solutions. I think a bag designed for multi-day hikes like this would be ideal: https://www.rei.com/product/164599/myst ... -pack-mens

It provides the same durability and functionality as most military gear, but it would also completely blend in among the bags the displaced masses will be carrying. It's designed for carrying a lot of weight comfortably over long distances, which we've pointed out is what you will have to end up doing in a worst-case scenario.

Bug-out is the worst case scenario, so I think if you are well-prepared with skills and supplies to bug-out like my PACE plan, then by default you are well-prepared for just about any other less serious emergency. Kind of like ERE's focus on preparing for a low energy intensity future also happened to make one well-prepared for the COVID pandemic.

* = It still might be useful in a bug-in/conscription scenario

theanimal
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by theanimal »

Coinbase blocked the accounts of over 25,000 Russian users today. The company says they are only blocking those who are thought to be engaging in illicit activity and they say that ordinary Russians aren't affected.

It seems just like with traditional markets, this suggests that it is prudent to divest of any intermediaries and have a way to mange/keep your assets on your own terms. In terms of crypto, this seems best achieved by not keeping anything on the exchanges and having a hardware wallet. My knowledge of crypto is very limited, so perhaps someone with more knowledge can chime in with more and/or better suggestions.

white belt
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by white belt »

AxelHeyst wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:00 am
CB Radio is the traditional approach to long range comms if the grid is down. Requires some training, a cert/license, and some specialized equipment, I believe.
I've done a little research on communications options the last few days. I'm now even more convinced that planning for long range communications to be non-existent is the best strategy. I'm not convinced that going beyond having a basic SATCOM capability as a backup is worthwhile. My understanding is that CB radio is used for short range communications up to a few miles in flat terrain because the power you can push out on it is very limited.

In order to push enough power and in a frequency band to actually speak over long range comms when repeaters are unavailable, you're going to have to be broadcasting over HF. This requires a radio with that capability which is going to cost in the $500-1000 range, an appropriate antenna, and a "General" HAM radio license in addition to the baseline "Technician" license (at least in the USA). Anyone who you are transmitting with also must have the appropriate equipment and license.

So you have all the equipment, you're maintaining regular proficiency, and a Ukraine-like SHTF scenario strikes. Good thing you are prepared right? Well no, because the government could just ban the operation of amateur radio transmitters, which is exactly what they did: https://www.arrl.org/news/view/amateur- ... -emergency

I think for short range comms, there might still be value in having some kind of walkie talkie or handheld radio equivalent if you are traveling in a group. These also have utility for many other outdoor activities.
Last edited by white belt on Mon Mar 07, 2022 8:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Ego
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by Ego »

A day or two after Canada began shutting down the bank accounts and the exchange-based crypto wallets of those who donated to the freedom caravan, Coinbase and Kraken released self-custody wallets, making it impossible for the exchanges to execute court orders to freeze funds in those new wallets. They also have Ledger integration which adds another layer of security. Coinbase has been pushing them hard, trying to get account holders to transfer their crypto to the self-custody wallets. Coinbase makes money on fees and while they do not charge fees to transfer from one Coinbase wallet to another, they do charge fees to transfer to their self-custody wallets.

https://www.coinbase.com/wallet

In theory it doesn't stop the governments from blacklisting particular addresses. Any coins that touched those address would be consider poisoned. But then again the people who hold the keys to those wallets could use mix trades where many people mix up and redistribute their coins. During the Canada thing I read that the authorities were considering blacklisting all wallets participating in a mixer transaction if one wallet in the mix was blacklisted.

Keep in mind, all of these transaction are happening on public ledgers that everyone can see. Chainalysis is the biggest company tracking everything and charging governments for their all-knowing AI analysis. If a wallet connected to a KYC account at any point along a string of transactions, a tax bill will be paid by someone, someday. Retroactive enforcement is inevitable.

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Ego
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by Ego »

white belt wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 7:54 pm
I think for short range comms, there might still be value in having some kind of walkie talkie or handheld radio equivalent if you are traveling in a group. These also have utility for many other outdoor activities.
One of these days I am going to stumble upon some Gotenna Meshes or (hopefully) Gotenna Pros at the bottom of a bag of military gear at the swap meet. Their range is up to 10 miles for the mesh and a set of the pro version connected 23 mile apart in a real world use in Puerto Rico after hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017. Gotennas provide texting and location data when internet and cell service is unavailable. The pros do a lot more.

Here is a map of all the meshes connected right now.
https://imeshyou.gotennamesh.com/

white belt
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by white belt »

@Ego

I wasn't aware that those mesh options are available to the general public, but I think that would be perfect if one is in a region with a lot of nodes (it seems most urban areas have a lot of nodes). It's less effective in wilderness areas. Nevertheless, it could be useful to verify safety and coordinate link-up with loved ones in a scenario with no cell signals. It seems a little large to carry on a keychain at all times but I could see keeping it in a workbag or vehicle.

A pair of Meshes go for $150 used on eBay, which isn't cheap but may be a worthwhile insurance policy.

white belt
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by white belt »

jacob wrote:
Sat Mar 05, 2022 10:45 am
The risk of stuff being stolen or confiscated should probably not be ignored either. I have one of these: https://www.scottevest.com/shop/mens-ja ... -men.shtml which I was lucky enough to pick up for $12.75+shipping on eBay after trawling for a couple of years. It makes a good "temperate" travel jacket once one figures out how to load it (it's kinda set up with gadget freaks in mind). The load carrying system applies some kind of magic which means that it doesn't feel like the jacket hangs uncomfortably ... and more importantly, from the outside there are no weird "prints" of the stuff(*) in the inside pockets---it just looks like I gained 20 lbs of apple-shape. I can only somewhat recommend it, since it's made of polyester and wouldn't last long in an abrasive environment ... I wish they made a sturdier/outdoorsier version.
Another alternative I've come up with is to carry a fanny pack that can also hold a water bottle, similar to the ones marketed to runners: https://www.amazon.com/WATERFLY-Running ... ZI5Z5KOFCI

Obviously you will be broadcasting to everyone you are carrying water and have some stuff in it, but in my opinion it could be useful as a FLC alternative and will blend in much better than a military/police FLC. It can be worn around the waist, slung over a shoulder in the front, or slung over a shoulder in the back. In theory it should be comfortable enough and the configuration options should mean you can keep it on you 24/7 in an emergency situation. It can be carried in all weather and won't heat you up very much. Easy to carry in front when you're carrying your bug-out bag.

The idea is you'd keep your most desperately needed stuff in there that you don't want to or can't carry in clothing pockets. Things like passport, multi-tool, water filtration, a couple of food bars, fold up map, fire starter kit, headlamp, small first aid kit, and so on. Concealed carry fanny packs exist, which tells me in theory you could also carry a subcompact pistol like a Glock 26 in the fanny pack (acknowledging you'll probably have to ditch it before a border crossing or security checkpoint). This is basically stuff that can help you survive for the 12-24 hours of walking it might take to get to a safer situation if all your other options have failed.

I don't think cheapo fanny packs will be durable, so I'd have to do some digging to find a durable option that doesn't look too tacticool. I'd also stitch some MOLLE webbing on the inside as attachment points for dummy cords and maybe go with some slightly wider/thicker straps to increase durability and comfort.

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Ego
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by Ego »

white belt wrote:
Tue Mar 08, 2022 11:43 am
so I'd have to do some digging to find a durable option that doesn't look too tacticool.
I use an older version of the PacSafe hip pack every day. I like the older version because I can literally lock the waistbelt to myself or some fixed object and lock the zippers shut when I fall asleep.

Image

I like their larger packs for the same reason.

white belt
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by white belt »

Ego wrote:
Tue Mar 08, 2022 12:21 pm
I use an older version of the PacSafe hip pack every day. I like the older version because I can literally lock the waistbelt to myself or some fixed object and lock the zippers shut when I fall asleep.
Perfect. So we’ve come back full circle to the basic idea that some of the most useful gear in a collapse situation is also very useful in daily life.

I’ll see if I can find one of those old PacSafe hip packs.

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Ego
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by Ego »

Cyber attacks are intensifying from both Russia and Iran. If Russia declares the beginning of WWIII because of US and European assistance to Ukraine we may begin seeing serious attacks here. What are some possible targets and how can we plan for the disruptions?

A few years ago the Israeli water supply system and treatment facilities were targeted. What if that happened where you live? Bottled water and a backup toilet would be useful.

What else?

Kriegsspiel
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by Kriegsspiel »

Ego wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 8:31 am
Cyber attacks are intensifying from both Russia and Iran. If Russia declares the beginning of WWIII because of US and European assistance to Ukraine we may begin seeing serious attacks here. What are some possible targets and how can we plan for the disruptions?

A few years ago the Israeli water supply system and treatment facilities were targeted. What if that happened where you live? Bottled water and a backup toilet would be useful.

What else?
My water was taken out recently. Hell, it could have been a cyberattack (let's call it... StinxNet). It took about a week to repair.

I snagged a case of water from the municipality on the first day, but after that they only were available for a couple hours in the middle of the day. I think their supplies ran low. I already had some bottled water in the bunker, so I was fine.

Washing dishes is the most annoying thing, I ended up just eating prepackaged food so that I didn't have to wash dishes.

The first morning I used a gallon of water to flush my toilet. I think that would have gotten old quick, and I would have started pissing in a jar and pooping in plastic grocery bags and disposing of it that way instead of wasting my water on flushing a toilet.

As it happened, they were able to turn back on non-potable water after a couple days, so I could flush toilets as usual.

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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by jacob »

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 9:46 am
As it happened, they were able to turn back on non-potable water after a couple days, so I could flush toilets as usual.
We once had our main sewer line taken out for several days. I'd say the toilet is the most significant issue. The logistics can get real interesting. My current preferred solution would be to dig a hole in the backyard and put a tent over it.

Storing water for a week's usage is easy enough. For dishes, I suggest wiping the dish clean with a piece of bread (and then eating the bread). Then very little water is needed to make it completely clean.

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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by AxelHeyst »

Poop in 5 gallon bucket. Pee in something else. Cover with coconut coir (bougie level), old rotted leaf matter, or even dirt works. Just have to cover the turds and it won't smell. Fold tp into very small wads so it's easier to cover, most noobs do this wrong and the tp is source of smell. Bury in large cathole in backyard infrequently (or humanure pile).

Similar to the food preps method; if you do this normally or at least semiregular, it won't be an S curve to ascend while you've got other stuff on your mind. An emergency is a bad time to discover that your plastic bucket is sun-rotted and cracking.

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Ego
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by Ego »

We had a two day water main brake here as well. Fifty tenants. They did surprisingly well.

The residents on the first floor had water a little longer than those of us above. Once they ran out I wheeled two of the large rolling trashcans into the elevator, down to the basement and drained what remained in the building's water system. That gave us about 150 gallons of non-potable water in addition to the supply I have. Whenever someone discards a water bottle or container I pick it out of the trash and add it to my supply in the basement.

Image

We used our MSR Dromedary bag with the shower valve for dishes. The city had announced that service would be restored so we just flushed with stored water.

We have one of those doggy poop bag dispensers out on the sidewalk and keep a few cases of the bags on hand. I guess we would have resorted to those if things got bad. They would definitely hold up to the job but they are small and some people may not be too happy with them. I am going to start picking clean plastic bags from the trash was well.

Kriegsspiel
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by Kriegsspiel »

Just wiping out a pot with some bread... of course. And now that you mention it, I seem to recall the guy who lived in a van while going to Duke said he eventually stopped cleaning his dishes at some point too.

I also like Ego's idea. I could probably suspend a used wine bag over my sink with a broomstick and some 550 cord and use that for washing dishes.

Kriegsspiel
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by Kriegsspiel »

Whoops, that was my other tip. Make sure you have plenty of boxed wine on hand when the water goes out.

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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by theanimal »

The culture up here is that ~35% of households already live without plumbing (dry cabins) so there is a heightened awareness of water conservation and alternative uses. As a result, the water source is not susceptible to outside disruptions as there are detached facilities (not delivered) that operate on quarters and nickels. You will help yourself immensely in terms of washing dishes etc. if you have some type of jug on your counter which water can flow out of. The standard 5 gal cubes are the easiest. If your water shuts off for extended time, undo the piping under your sink and have the excess water flow directly into a 5 gallon bucket. This is your slop bucket. You can use this to flush your toilet as needed (only flushing when there are solids). The far easier solution to using a toilet is the humanure option as AxelHeyst suggested. Get a 5 gallon bucket and cover it in wood shavings, leaves or some other type of carbon based compostable material. We burn the toilet paper in an old tomato can. I will echo AH's statement that it does not smell. I lead tours of our compost pile ( :lol: ), where there is plenty of waste buried underneath, and people are always astounded by the lack of smell. Regarding showers, a solar shower bag over a large tub can do the trick (you can use the excess water for your garden, toilet etc) or there are always sponge baths. If you are able to get water during a disruption, you should be able to carry on your life activities as more or less normal. Otherwise you're doing it wrong.

white belt
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Re: Useful Hard Skills for the near future

Post by white belt »

AxelHeyst wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 10:31 am
Poop in 5 gallon bucket. Pee in something else. Cover with coconut coir (bougie level), old rotted leaf matter, or even dirt works. Just have to cover the turds and it won't smell. Fold tp into very small wads so it's easier to cover, most noobs do this wrong and the tp is source of smell. Bury in large cathole in backyard infrequently (or humanure pile).
What if there is no backyard? Or any yard? That’s how most of the urban population lives. I guess that’s where trash bags come in, but they are only really helpful as long as trash pickup is still happening. I don’t know that there is a scalable solution, since our dense urban centers are built with the prerequisites that various services are running.

Just like with COVID lockdowns, I suspect the situation is more unpleasant the higher the population density of the area you live in. To me that’s reason enough to avoid high rises and the like. I imagine the vermin populations in Ukrainian cities are booming at the moment.

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