Useful Hard Skills for the near future

[Dream of Freedom]

How to think about it?

I'm not sure, Poland is NATO, could NATO even have a conventional war with Russia? If you think it is an extinction-level event or close to it you would have more to worry about than being conscripted.

[Ego]

Switching to different point: how to predict borders closing for males in productive age in Poland/Slovakia/Belarus?

This is a good question.

Censorship is no longer about hiding information. It now works by flooding the field with immense amounts of irrelevant and contradictory information until it becomes impossible to focus.

Find ways to filter the flood by listening to the people who speak to the people who would know the answers. They are generally those who worked with the person in a position of power or they may have held the position prior to the current person. They will not speak candidly on television but may be more free with their tongues on a specialized podcast, social media or when they participate in an old school internet forums. You will have to read between the lines.

A good example would be the Covid info that flowed from TWiV where they hinted about asymptomatic spread and the ineffectiveness of vaccines almost a year before anyone else. Another example is the recent successes of our intelligence community regarding Putin's intentions. They called it right when almost everyone believed he was bluffing. I have no specific information but I would be willing to bet it was these informal channels paid dividends.

[chenda]

Some countries like Israel and certain Nordic countries (?) conscript females as part of the first wave.

Yes Sweden and Norway.

There are reports that increasing number of Russians, especially the middle classes, are also starting to leave Russia in respond to the war, economic pain and political crackdown. With most airspace closed one way out is the St. Petersburg to Helinski rail link, which Finns and Russians can use visa free. Apparently the trains are jammed. Others are driving to the Finnish border, or using one of the few remaining air links to places like the middle east.

Tellingly, some can't leave simply because they don't have an up to date passport (or covid paperwork) So that's something to always have. And Putin has of course introduced stringent capital controls so they can't take all their money with them.

Another thing is that commercial aviation Russia is likely to become increasingly unworkable or even risky, due to a shortage of spare parts and engineers. Aeroflot's main maintenance hub is in Germany, now cut off from the fleet its supposed to serve. Although Russia does manufacture its own commercial aircraft, they are still reliant on western manufacturers for key components (like engines)

[Colibri]

Switching to different point: how to predict borders closing for males in productive age in Poland/Slovakia/Belarus?
I hate my life, but I don't want to sacrifice it before 30s for Polish/Russian politicians/oligarchs.
For political perspective, I consider myself as low tier opportunist (if living with parents gives me right to be called so).
How to predict such things? How to think about it?
Do we have NATO intelligence officers over here?

Canada will accept a bunch of Ukrainian refugees. If SHTF for poland as well, maybe the Canadian government will extend the same offer. An option to look into ?

[white belt]

We have mostly focused on the effects of the situation on Ukrainians for obvious reasons, however I think there are also lessons to be learned about the impact of the invasion on average Russian citizens. Although a foreign concept for most western citizens, I think an important consideration to wargame is what happens if your government enters a conflict that cuts off trade, results in sanctions, and/or results in restrictive domestic policies (we’ve seen similar situations throughout history). Assuming that everyone lives in a representative democracy or should just attempt to flee to one in such a situation is probably not a scalable solution.

I know there are a lot of financial sanctions along with attempts by the Russian government to limit outflows of financial capital from its citizens. Chenda talks about struggles Russians may face with maintaining transportation infrastructure. What are other some other actions we’ve seen and possible mitigations for the individual?

[theanimal]

I think all the suggestions regarding communications are relevant. Russian citizens are experiencing the more traditional form of censorship, given today how Russia banned the use of Facebook and Twitter in the country and you can be jailed for sharing "misinformation" about the war. Knowledge in using communication systems that can not be surveilled seems prudent, with the most basic being using a VPN if the internet is still up and running.

Beyond that the solution always seems to come back to ERE. If you are able to develop a range of skills and a lifestyle that doesn't rely on the globalized economy and international trade, you will find yourself far less affected than those who live more traditionally.

The decision of whether to stay or go seems to be much harder for citizens of the invading country to make. Just 1-2 weeks ago it would've been difficult to foresee the stringent sanctions that have been placed not just on the Russian government but on anyone and everything Russian.

[white belt]

Another thing to keep in mind: the Russian stock market has been closed since the start of the conflict and will remain closed until at least March 9th. Imagine a scenario where your own country closes their financial markets for a couple of weeks during a crisis situation. I’m sure there are a lot of Russians who would like to sell some of their stock holdings right now…

Edit: Remember that there were calls from US politicians to shutdown markets during the COVID crash in March 2020, so that possibility is not far-fetched.

[chenda]

The decision of whether to stay or go seems to be much harder for citizens of the invading country to make. Just 1-2 weeks ago it would've been difficult to foresee the stringent sanctions that have been placed not just on the Russian government but on anyone and everything Russian.

Right. I think its easy to underestimate the psychological barriers that exist against leaving, especially if there is no immediate danger like there is in Ukraine. Many Russians perhaps are considering leaving but are understandably reluctant to leave their friends, family and their hometown. Others might be too old or have elderly relatives to care for, or don't want to leave their pets (pets are a real barrier to mobility - one Russian women I saw interviewed in Finland only left once she was able to rehome her cat) The analogy of slowing boiling a frog springs to mind. If Russia starts to impose travel restrictions on its citizens (which I'm sure would be very unpopular but could well happen) you would want to get out sooner rather than later.

Whether Russian exiles will be permitted to remain in western Europe is another question. A second citizenship could obviously be enormously beneficial, but in addition so would having connections, familiarity, language skills and financial assets in the second country. As an aside, there are apparently thousands of Ukrainian and Russian tourists stranded together in resorts in Egypt, staying in the same hotels and now in diplomatic limbo.

Within Russia there has been a lot of rural to urban migration in recent decades, the countryside is often extremely poor and people there are likely used to privation and have the skills to adapt. So they may not be as impacted by sanctions and international orchestration as more affluent urban dwellers.

[Ego]

Communication. People will often use the method they have been using because without it they do not know how to reconnect. It would be wise to create several backup methods of communication with everyone involved before splitting up.

EFF put out a good guide for using telegram.
https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2022/03/t ... nd-ukraine

[white belt]

So far my impression from the mainstream coverage is that Europeans seem welcoming of Ukrainian refugees. Last number I saw was 1.2 million in just over a week, which is a pace that is unprecedented since WW2. An extended conflict could generate tens of millions of Ukrainian refugees according to FP. An influx of refugees of that size will strain neighboring EU countries, so I wonder how long the warm welcome will last.

Compare to the treatment of ME refugees by European countries: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/03/10842015 ... ees-racism

Therefore, one consideration when scouting evacuation locations for the individual is how culturally/ethnically/economically similar you are to the locals in the area you are fleeing to. The more similarities, the more welcoming that area will likely be to refugees of your ilk. Humans tend to revert to tribalism in times of crisis, so make attempts to minimize the impression that you are an outsider. Expat populations probably help in this situation, unless of course they are persecuted in the new location. It may also be worth having an understanding of basic local customs/courtesies, rudimentary language skills, and mimicking the clothing/grooming/appearance patterns of the locals.

[white belt]

Watching the news clips of refugees fleeing from Kyiv has me thinking about transportation. I see people struggling to carry all forms of bags, struggling to walk, dressed in inadequate clothing, and so on. Just like with a communications systems, I think it is important to have transportation options. PACE is an important concept: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PACE_(com ... thodology)

I like a plan that is almost like nested dolls in that in each method can be part of the previous method. Therefore, you take a method of transportation as far as possible and then move down the list to the next method when it is no longer viable. This will mean leaving behind equipment/supplies in exchange for greater mobility. For transportation in a refugee situation, I envision something like this:

P - ICE Vehicle
This one is straightforward. It is useful to have a bug out vehicle because it can cover large distances, store a lot of equipment, and double as shelter. The downside is it requires gas, takes up a lot of space, and restricts you to main roads that may be bogged down by traffic. Smaller form factors like a motorcycle are more maneuverable, with the tradeoff that they have less carrying capacity and offer less protection than a larger vehicle.

A - Bicycle w/ trailer
I think a bicycle for each individual travelling and one trailer for the group would be extremely useful. These are small enough to be transported by the ICE vehicle on a rack. The trailer is useful for carrying equipment, but more importantly it can be fashioned into a makeshift litter or rickshaw in the event that a member of the group is immobile due to age, injury, or for other reasons. An advantage of the bicycle is it is human powered and the smaller form factor means it is much more maneuverable. A bicycle's weakness is that it still requires some road infrastructure, cargo capabilities are limited, and it requires a healthy and fit human to ride it. E-bikes may be useful to extend distance and supplement human fitness, with the downside they add weight and that electric components require electricity.

C - Bicycle
Pretty much the same as the A method, with the exception that you gain maneuverability in exchange for losing cargo capacity. Having a rack on the bike to still carry a large backpack is essential, so that you are always prepared to switch to foot movement if necessary.

E - Foot
This has been well covered already in the thread.

E - Public transportation
I'll include buses, trains, and other forms of transportation that require higher level of organizational complexity. I think these are the least reliable method in a collapse scenario because they lack flexibility and the less-prepared masses will have the same idea.


The bug out bag filled with essentials is crucial as the foundation because one must be prepared to grab it and switch to foot movement at a moment's notice when using other methods of transportation. This may mean always carrying the bag and/or wearing a FLC with critical items to reduce the risk that you become separated from such gear. No solution is perfect but this will at least increase your chances of success. Maybe this is all common knowledge in the experienced prepper community, but I'm just giving my thoughts/experience from spending a lot of time carrying stuff and living outdoors in austere environments.

Edit: I could also see the utility of more niche transportation methods like ATVs, inflatable kayaks/boats, etc if they make since in a particular geographic area.

[jacob]

This may mean always carrying the bag and/or wearing a FLC with critical items to reduce the risk that you become separated from such gear.

I think it's pretty hard to understate this. "You don't really have it with you, unless it's on your person." We had one offshore race that nearly turned into a disaster. All the proper and mandatory safety gear (except lifejackets of course) was stored below and we'd always leave it there. However, as waves increased beyond 10ft, all the concentration was on the boat and so the lifelines we should have clipped in with remained downstairs in the respective bags. BOOM! Rudder snaps and drops to the bottom of the Pacific. Boat broaches and rounds up dropping half the crew in the water. Luckily we didn't lose any. After that trip everybody was always fully decked out with tethers and rigging knifes even when the weather looked nice. I suppose it's the equivalent on not putting one's helmet on "because it's just a short trip".

I suppose the closest "consumers" generally come is losing their checked-in luggage when traveling by air. Next step would be carry-on only. And so on. I like the PACE idea. It's a good way to think about a cascading collapse.

The risk of stuff being stolen or confiscated should probably not be ignored either. I have one of these: https://www.scottevest.com/shop/mens-ja ... -men.shtml which I was lucky enough to pick up for $12.75+shipping on eBay after trawling for a couple of years. It makes a good "temperate" travel jacket once one figures out how to load it (it's kinda set up with gadget freaks in mind). The load carrying system applies some kind of magic which means that it doesn't feel like the jacket hangs uncomfortably ... and more importantly, from the outside there are no weird "prints" of the stuff(*) in the inside pockets---it just looks like I gained 20 lbs of apple-shape. I can only somewhat recommend it, since it's made of polyester and wouldn't last long in an abrasive environment ... I wish they made a sturdier/outdoorsier version.

(*) Kindle, 400 page paperback, water bottle, sunglasses, old phone for taking pictures, two pencils, gloves, hat, neck gaiter. ... Obviously, this could easily be changed to fresh socks, underwear, first aid kit, earplugs, rope, knife, ...

[sky]

From this list, the most effective transportation option is a bicycle with a rack and panniers, or other means to carry gear. The gear should be adequate to allow for shelter and insulation in the climate in which one is located. The gear should be able to be transferred to a backpack in case of damage to the bicycle. One should know how to use the gear. It would be good to keep a week's worth of dry, long term storage backpacking food on hand at all times.

I recommend that everyone maintain a pack of ultralight backpacking gear, and a bicycle with racks and panniers suitable for bicycle touring.

[jacob]

Much of the information in this classic also seems to align well with this thread:
https://www.amazon.com/Modern-Survival- ... 9870563457

[white belt]

I think it's pretty hard to understate this. "You don't really have it with you, unless it's on your person."
I suppose the closest "consumers" generally come is losing their checked-in luggage when traveling by air. Next step would be carry-on only. And so on. I like the PACE idea. It's a good way to think about a cascading collapse.

The risk of stuff being stolen or confiscated should probably not be ignored either.

In the infantry we called it using a "dummy cord". This includes absolute essentials like knife/multitool, maps, first aid kits, compass, and so on. Molle webbing, 550 cord, carabiners, and pouches that close with fasteners/snaps/velcro can all be useful in facilitating this. That way, as long as your vest/FLC/jacket is still on you, the worst you will end up regardless of the situation is with your important items dangling off of you, rather than lost. The corollary to this is your FLC/vest/jacket is on you the entire day and is right next to you when sleeping/showering. You can do the same thing by dummy cording things to your belt if you're wearing pants with sufficient pockets, but that is less comfortable and you will have less capacity.

Stuff being stolen is always a risk. I think the best mitigation is to blend in with the population. The challenge is finding durable gear that doesn't look too flashy or tacticool. That means a regular car/minivan rather than some tricked out SUV or cargo vehicle with gas cans, ammunition, and water strapped to the outside. Stay away from any overt camouflage patterns and stick with solid colors for clothing. Traveling using public transportation carries a higher risk of theft in my opinion, but centralized points may also have more security to control the masses.

Tacticool appearance carries the additional risk of being identified as a combatant in a warzone, which should be avoided at all costs. It seems the reporters in Ukraine are using black body armor and helmets to try to differentiate themselves from combatants. Be careful with carrying guns in sight because they could be used to identify you as a combatant from drone surveillance. They will also draw attention from government authorities at checkpoints and border crossings.

[Aspirant]

White belt knows what he's talking about

Finland has increased probability of conflict. The situation has never been this bad in my lifetime. We have been prepping since 1945 so we are in better situation than Ukraine. In worst case scenario we have at least until summer before anything major. They can't haul anything worthwhile from Ukraine to our border in less than 3 months.

"St. Petersburg to Helinski rail link, which Finns and Russians can use visa free. Apparently the trains are jammed." As of today the rail connection works normally.

Practical stuff:
-Will get passports renewed for the whole family
-Discussed immediate evacuation plans for family
-Starting to slowly stockpile more stuff (not in any real prepping sense)
-Talked about support from US if DW and DK need to evacuate
-Slowed investing and increased cash position (not dropping out of the market)
- Got better military boots (I'd like to keep my feet warm while repelling Russian invasion)

[chenda]

"St. Petersburg to Helinski rail link, which Finns and Russians can use visa free. Apparently the trains are jammed." As of today the rail connection works normally.

Sorry I meant that the trains were jammed in the sense they were full of people, not that they were not running. Maybe you will join NATO before the summer anyway ?

[Qazwer]

Just finished the book ‘Move’ by Parag Khanna
He argues that migration will increase in the near future. There are five forces that drive it: climate change, demographics, politics, economics, and technology. A big chunk of his book is on the first. Recent European events makes me think that politics will be a bigger force in the near future. He correctly points out though that these five forces interact and he tries to predict future winners in movement. Given climate change, he points out how Russia will have advantages in the future (published months ago before the invasion). I wonder though how unknowable such a chaotic system will be with each of the five factors playing out making long term planning on an individual location useless. I think though the topic of hard skills which he discusses but does not define are still relevant.

[Aspirant]

Unfortunately the NATO process will be a bit slower than that. We have been a hangaround member for 20 years (partnership for peace). We are pretty much compatible with NATO. I served in a peace-keeping mission 20 years ago. Our president met with Biden and we are applying for the next step (MNNA status).

[Ego]

https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 022-03-05/

all transactions initiated with Visa cards issued in Russia will no longer work outside of the country and any Visa cards issued outside of Russia will no longer work within the country, the company said.

Same for Mastercard. Is this more impactful than SWIFT?

What if this happened to you? Imagine you are a Russian who took the train to Finland and you are suddenly disconnected from your wealth. No way to pay the hotel bill, buy food or pay for transportation. Perhaps you can't even buy a ticket home. How many things you rely on daily, weekly or monthly require a Visa or Mastercard payment? Maybe you do not buy much but do you rely on systems that would collapse as a result of the impact on others? Which ones? How can you robustify? If you were an ERE in Russia what do you wish you had done two weeks ago? Two months ago? Two years ago?