COVID-19

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C40
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Re: COVID-19

Post by C40 »

Here is a collection of Covid-related videos.. mostly from China and Iran. Mostly cel-phone videos.

https://archive.nothingburger.today/Vid ... d_or_Dead/

I believe many of these are videos that the governments (in China and Iran probably) would not allow sharing.

warning - these can be disturbing. Lots of patients in bad conditions, dead bodies, etc.
Last edited by C40 on Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:10 am, edited 3 times in total.

IlliniDave
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Re: COVID-19

Post by IlliniDave »

They told us at work the folks in the hazmat suits would be in yesterday evening to perform a "deep cleaning". Story is that someone who works on the campus was in contact with someone covid-19 positive. The person is in self-quarantine without symptoms but hasn't been tested. Because of HIPAA they won't id the individual, so I can't judge my personal risk based on the "incident" any more than that. That's the closest the virus has penetrated my orbit so far.

Latest is 531 confirmed cases in the state out of about 4,080 tests performed and 43 positives in my county. Testing guidelines are pretty strict still, as far as I know, and the implication from state department of health data is that about 13% of the statewide population identified by medical providers as displaying symptoms associated with covid-19 and subsequently tested are testing positive. Because of the way the data is collected there are unreported negative specimens (private labs are required to report all positives to the state, but not all private labs furnish negative result data to the state according to the state department of health). So the ratio of positives to tests successfully performed is probably a little lower.

Bad news is that the virus is established here and illnesses from it are on the rise. The good news, if you could call it that, is that data implies that less than 20% of the people around here sick with covid-19-like symptoms are infected with covid-19. I'm still hopeful (but not confident) that the arrival of warm weather will blunt the spread.

My city is still not under any sort of shelter-in-place, just the restrictions I mentioned before on bars and restaurants and other businesses and venues where moderate or large numbers of people would gather. No idea what the local hospital situation is. My local grocery store is setting aside some time first thing in the morning for folks over 65 only. That seems like a pretty good idea and allows that cohort to shop with reduced risk if they choose to do so.

Looks like I'll have to make my own decision when enough is enough and I stop going into work.

ertyu
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

Keeping my fingers crossed for you, UK! BoJo is doing his part for #HerdImmunity! He may die - but that is a sacrifice I'm willing to accept.

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

Quite a lot of high profile politicians in the UK already got it: Prince of Whales:), UK Health Secretary and now BoJo to name a few. Is it a chance, the fact that they meet a lot more people each day or has the virus spread much wider than suspected?
Last edited by Bankai on Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

Jason
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

No worries in the US being that Trump walks through the world like he's Robert Duvall on the beaches of Viet Nam in Apocalypse Now.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

@Bankai - High profile people seemingly have very easy access to testing for even the lightest of symptoms indicating a wider spread. OTOH, politicians do shake hands and otherwise interact with a lot of different people making them great vectors indicating the opposite. It's tradition in the US when one president leaves the office to leave a letter with a piece of advice for the next president and IIRC, GWB give Obama a bottle of hand sanitizer and recommended using it.

Gilberto de Piento
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Gilberto de Piento »

Another factor to consider when considering whether or not the current measures are needed is mutation. A few weeks ago there was a report that the virus had mutated so there was more than one type with variation on ability to spread and to kill. Maybe different types are operating in different areas making for different results. This along with all the other factors would make the measures look more or less necessary.

Jason
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

This was in the NYT - how a ritzy Connecticut community became a hub of the virus for various reasons including fear of stigmatization.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/us/c ... -zero.html

I felt when Tom Hanks announced that he and his wife caught the virus that it was somewhat a Magic Johnson has AIDS moment, at least in the US. I know when I told someone I wasn't feeling well the first thing they asked was "Do you have the virus?" I understood their concern as I was just with them a few days before but it felt that someone just spray painted COVID19 on my life.

High profile announcements at once reflect the discrepancy of testing but also serve as cautionary tales and anecdotal means to de-stigmatize.

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@classical_Liberal:

First off, I am not a math whiz (call out to daylen/Jacob etc.) It does not take a math whiz to recognize the huge problem with the math/science in the WSJ/Stanford MDs opinion piece.

There are many examples of well conceived studies that extrapolate from a relatively small group to a larger population, for instance the Framingham Heart study. This only works if valid assumption that small group is reasonably representative of larger group. The extrapolation described in the WSJ opinion piece does the opposite. The population of Vo was not chosen for mass testing because representative or at random. It was chosen because early incidence was already detected there! So, the Stanford MDs are extrapolating rate of infection over entire region in violation of level of introducing bias into data that is taught at 8th grade level. Therefore, what I would be so bold as to extrapolate would be that the average WSJ reader must be at below 6th grade math/science competency.

Anyways, the simple answer to your question is that such an extensive survey would generate far more than enough data for valid statistical analysis. However, it would just generate a snapshot in time of what is a constantly changing situation. I am constantly updating my own take as I attempt to read more science (as opposed to either opinion pieces or hospital room anecdotes) and my current take is that the level of contagion is such that a reasonable degree of social distancing is generally effective and that is why/where curve flattens. IOW, large hidden already immune asymptomatic portion of population is not necessary or best fit explanation.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

AnalyticalEngine wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:11 pm
That's interesting. Did she mention in what ways the spread of COVID-19 doesn't match their models? Is it spreading faster than they were expecting?
They were expecting a faster spread.

Tyler9000
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Tyler9000 »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:40 am
It does not take a math whiz to recognize the huge problem with the math/science in the WSJ/Stanford MDs opinion piece.
To be fair, it also does not take a math wiz to recognize the huge problem with the math/science in the Imperial College study that everyone seems to hold as the gold standard. They assumed that there would be no community testing available at all to mitigate the spread until a vaccine is widely available, an important detail which is on the verge of being invalidated just a few weeks later. That makes a big difference! And if some of these treatments pan out in reducing the fatality rate and recovery time by external means, all bets are off with every study done so far. Models are hard, and even the very best ones require constant updates as new information becomes available.

In any case, I personally have no idea what will happen. Being a seasoned ERE reader, I'm pretty sensitive to trying to avoid sitting on top of Mt. Stupid. And frankly, most of the layperson/media research interpretations seem to be falling exactly into that trap with a false sense of expertise in fields they knew nothing about before reading about pandemic models on Wikipedia. If you read Twitter (please don't), apparently everyone is an epidemiology expert now and the actual people who have dedicated their lives to it are morons who don't know how science works. :roll:

So I'll keep sharing stories about different researchers who have competing ideas about what's going on in the hope that the truth is out there somewhere and will reveal itself in time.
Last edited by Tyler9000 on Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:53 am, edited 3 times in total.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:40 am
IOW, large hidden already immune asymptomatic portion of population is not necessary or best fit explanation.
Exactly my thoughts.

COVID-19 has a long cooking time, 2-12 days with the average at 5 days. Those long and short tails may indicate that the length or concentration of exposure is a factor in transmission, while most models with wider/faster spread probably assume instant infection at exposure.

Beyond social distance, we know that washing hands and face masks reduce infectability, otherwise our health professionals would not be able to do their work.

The other thing we saw from the Chinese lockdown is that the virus is persistent. It took 6+ weeks of lockdown before they had no new cases.

sky
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Re: COVID-19

Post by sky »

Apparently industrial farming is causing risk of influenza outbreaks similar to COVID-19 which was likely caused by bushmeat.

(Long youtube video)
Pandemics, History and Prevention
https://youtu.be/7_ppXSABYLY

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@Tyler9000:

I don’t disagree. Every model is only as good as its assumptions combined with its math. My BIL who is an epidemiologist is now replying “I’m not a virologist!” ti any requests for his take in the situation :lol:

@GTOO:

The study on the mutation of the virus itself indicated high degree of variability in transmission. As in some humans pass it on to zero other humans and some humans pass it DIRECTLY on to 40 other humans. This evidence is independent of the human population surveys so lends credence to social distancing behaviors as effective mechanism to slow transmission. IOW, if everybody is taught/forced to exhibit behavior like unto that of least effective spreaders prior to widespread knowledge of epidemic, rate of transmission should be significantly reduced.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

IlliniDave wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:58 am
Looks like I'll have to make my own decision when enough is enough and I stop going into work.
My god I can't believe that your work has not taken steps to arrange for staff to work from home. That is completely negligent. Personally I would take charge myself and proceed to work from home.
Last edited by thrifty++ on Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Missouri has got to be the weirdest state. What sort of governor calls out the National Guard to assist with COVID-19 response, gets a federal disaster declaration, yet refuses to issue a "stay at home" order because it will damage the economy? At least St. Louis and Kansas City mayors issued "stay at home" orders earlier this week.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:30 pm
The study on the mutation of the virus itself indicated high degree of variability in transmission. As in some humans pass it on to zero other humans and some humans pass it DIRECTLY on to 40 other humans.
COVID Georges, you say? :mrgreen:

Tyler9000
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Tyler9000 »

Augustus wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:39 pm
My thinking is that it's prudent to base your personal decisions on a worst case set of numbers right now.
...
I fully expect the numbers to not be that bad, but it's just not worth the personal risk to assume things will be fine right now since no one knows.
That's a very reasonable approach. And as the situation changes, our plans can change as well.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

If you rank the states by case count (easily done with the Johns Hopkins map, Admin 2 tab after highlighting US on Admin 1 tab, https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html) and don't bother to adjust for population, then I think the states to watch are the ones who do not have a "stay at home" order.

As of yesterday, in the top half of the list, they are:
  • Florida - bars, nightclubs closed Mar 17, state parks closed Mar 22
  • Pennsylvania - 7 counties "stay at home" Mar 23
  • Texas
  • Georgia
  • Tennessee
  • North Carolina - bars, nightclubs closed
  • Maryland
  • Alabama
  • Arizona
  • Missouri - St. Louis & Kansas City "stay at home" Mar 23 & Mar 24 respectively
  • Mississippi
  • Virginia

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Augustus wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:39 pm
I fully expect the numbers to not be that bad, but it's just not worth the personal risk to assume things will be fine right now since no one knows.
This is what I'm going with (not adjusted for age or comorbidity).

Death rate: 1.2% with vents still available, 2.4% with no more vents. (I've previously explained my rationale for these numbers.)
Hospitalization(*) rate: 0.024/0.15 = 16%. (15-20% of all hospitalizations go into critical, ratio seems to hold all over the world)
Asymptomatic rate: 70% (Vo, IT). (Also includes the "I'm not sure I have it, but I have something, maybe?" cases)
Non-hospitalized but with symptoms up to and including pneumonia: The rest or 14%. (Includes the, "I definitely had it/sickest ever/I pulled through" cases)

Total number of infected before herd immunity is achieved given no change of behavior: (2.5-1)/2.5 = 60% with R0=2.5
Total number of infected before herd immunity given Italian lock down: 5-30% (we don't know yet since the curve has yet to break)

(Interestingly, normal influenza has an reproduction number of ~1.4 which is lower and thus easier to control. A nice side-effect of the social distancing and other measures is that the number of ordinary flu cases have seen a significant decline.)

(*) Alternatively a cot in a convention center together with 500 other people.

Being in the US, even if one is fearless of death or nobly willing to chance it for the continued prosperity of the stockmarket economy, the medical bill from spending a week in the hospital should give pause. Though maybe there's a discount on the "cot#481 in a sports hall"-package? #facetious

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