COVID-19

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Tyler9000
Posts: 1688
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:45 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Tyler9000 »

Hang in there, JP. I admire your perseverance and how you're doing a great job caring for your family.

AnalyticalEngine
Posts: 403
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:57 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

I also feel like a lot of these headlines are taking the "asymptomatic" cases out of context.

For example, are these cases truly 100% asymptomatic or just presymtomatic? You can't know that unless you only report the data after all cases have resolved. Additionally, how contagious are true asymptomatics as opposed to presymptomatics? It could be that presymptomatics are far more likely to transmit the disease than true asymptomatics.

The data on asymptomatic cases is interesting to be sure, but it's important to be careful to not extrapolate too far on those data and understand how the data were measured in the first place.

Also, a high number of asymptomatic cases could mean this disease will have an even worse impact than we thought. Consider:

1. Asymptomatic infection may not prevent reinfection. That is, if your innate immune system nukes the virus before your b and t cells get enough time to make antibodies, you may not really be immune to the disease. Or the antibodies you make are weak and don't last longer than a year or two, like Lassa fever.

2. Imagine a disease where 50% of cases are asymptomatic and 50% result in death. This disease would still have a 25% IFR. A disease like this would be a disaster because it spreads asymptomatically and you can't contain it. So a high number of asymptomatic covid cases may actually lead to more deaths due to containment difficulties. This would imply we need more social distancing, not less.

3. About 95% of polio infections are asymptomatic, yet the 5% that aren't are so bad that polio continues to remain a significant public health problem in many countries.

4. In some diseases, weak antibodies are worse than no antibodies. Dengue fever is like this. Being vaccinated for dengue actually made the disease worse because you had enough antibodies to enhance the disease but not enough to prevent it. Is it possible that asymptomatics might be one reinfection away from critical?

Everything I said is speculation, but there's so much we don't know about this disease. So it's important to be careful from drawing too many conclusions.

thrifty++
Posts: 1114
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 3:46 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

@JP - sorry to hear about your situation. We are all hoping for the best for you. Stay strong.

George the original one
Posts: 5369
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:09 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 9a Wed, Mar 25
- 266 Positives
- 5476 Negatives
- 10 Deaths

Cases by County
- 6 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 21 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 1 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 10 Deschutes (Bend)
- 3 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 1 Hood River (Hood River)
- 4 Jackson (Medford)
- 2 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 5 Lane (Eugene)
- 1 Lincoln (Newport)
- 25 Linn (Albany)
- 43 Marion (Salem)
- 33 Multnomah (Portland)
- 3 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 96 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 7 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 5 19 or younger
- 15 20-29
- 32 30-39
- 55 40-49
- 42 50-59
- 57 60- 69
- 34 70-79
- 25 80 and over
- 1 Not available

Hospitalized
- 75 Yes
- 135 No
- 56 Not provided

Sex
- 142 Male
- 123 Male
- 1 Not available
50 new cases. Added Tillamook and Wasco counties. Exciting new data about hospitalization by age group and bed/ventilator availability!

Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Thur, Mar 26
- 316 Positives
- 6953 Negatives
- 11 Deaths

Cases by County
- 6 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 21 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 2 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 15 Deschutes (Bend)
- 3 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 1 Hood River (Hood River)
- 4 Jackson (Medford)
- 4 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 7 Lane (Eugene)
- 1 Lincoln (Newport)
- 26 Linn (Albany)
- 57 Marion (Salem)
- 45 Multnomah (Portland)
- 6 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 104 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 7 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 5 19 or younger
- 19 20-29
- 39 30-39
- 63 40-49
- 52 50-59
- 70 60- 69
- 40 70-79
- 27 80 and over
- 1 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 0 19 or younger
- 3 20-29
- 4 30-39
- 14 40-49
- 12 50-59
- 28 60- 69
- 21 70-79
- 8 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 90 Yes
- 170 No
- 56 Not provided

Sex
- 170 Male
- 144 Male
- 2 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 362 Available ICU beds
- 2193 Available non-ICU beds
- 684 Available ventilators

7Wannabe5
Posts: 6647
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@Tyler9000:

The Stanford research used the incident rate in Vo and projected it out to include the entire province and also relied on NBA testing data? :? In Veneto, where 8% of the population was tested with attempt to go deep enough to hit asymptomatic, the death rate was much lower than Lombardy, but still over 2% due to similar aged population-IOW reflective of near 1% rate in less aged population.

bostonimproper
Posts: 254
Joined: Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:45 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by bostonimproper »

I'm really confused by the recent wave of "this is not as fatal as you think" pieces when none of the data we've seen seems to support IFR << 1%. It's like the media pendulum has to have "both sides", even in a pandemic.

That said, I am eagerly waiting for serology tests so we can do population sampling. If you look at the distribution of cases by age range from Germany, Italy, and South Korea, number of infected for children are well below what you'd expect based on local demographics. I'm wondering people are either just naturally immune or are kicking the virus to the curb before its able to multiply to detectable levels by nose&throat swab PCR tests. That'd be good news and would support a "this is not as fatal as you think" conclusion, but obviously no data tending toward that way yet.

CS
Posts: 644
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2012 10:24 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by CS »

Data on the cases cared for in Nebraska.

There is support for airborne transmission.

Abstract: Lack of evidence on SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics has led to shifting isolation guidelines between airborne and droplet isolation precautions. During the initial isolation of 13 individuals confirmed positive with COVID-19 infection, air and surface samples were collected in eleven isolation rooms to examine viral shedding from isolated individuals. While all individuals were confirmed positive for SARS-CoV-2, symptoms and viral shedding to the environment varied considerably. Many commonly used items, toilet facilities, and air samples had evidence of viral contamination, indicating that SARS-CoV-2 is shed to the environment as expired particles, during toileting, and through contact with fomites. Disease spread through both direct (droplet and person-to-person) as well as indirect contact (contaminated objects and
airborne transmission) are indicated, supporting the use of airborne isolation precautions.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

George the original one
Posts: 5369
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:45 pm
State of Washington published count as of 6:20p Wed, 25 Mar
- 2580 Positives
- 31712 Negatives (not updated for 2 days now)
- 123 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 1 Adams (Ritzville)
- 10 Benton (Prosser)
- 6 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 4 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 16 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 3 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 2 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 7 Franklin (Pasco)
- 27 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 38 Island (Coupeville)
- 10 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1359 King (Seattle)
- 27 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 6 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 6 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 2 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 2 Mason (Shelton)
- 1 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 155 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 2 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 63 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 634 Snohomish (Everett)
- 54 Spokane (Spokane)
- 2 Stevens (Colville)
- 14 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 66 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 2 Whitman (Colfax)
- 51 Yakima (Yakima)
- 77 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 9% 20-29
- 14% 30-39
- 13% 40-49
- 17% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 14% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 4% Unknown
627 new cases. Surges in Clark County (Vancouver) and Spokane County (Spokane).

State of Washington published count as of 6:20p Thu, 26 Mar
- 3207 Positives
- 43173 Negatives
- 147 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 3 Adams (Ritzville)
- 19 Benton (Prosser)
- 10 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 5 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 48 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 7 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 5 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 7 Franklin (Pasco)
- 33 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 64 Island (Coupeville)
- 11 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1577 King (Seattle)
- 33 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 8 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 7 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 5 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 2 Mason (Shelton)
- 1 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 186 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 2 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 78 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 778 Snohomish (Everett)
- 67 Spokane (Spokane)
- 2 Stevens (Colville)
- 24 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 86 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 3 Whitman (Colfax)
- 61 Yakima (Yakima)
- 69 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 9% 20-29
- 15% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 18% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 13% 70-79
- 13% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown
Last edited by George the original one on Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

thrifty++
Posts: 1114
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 3:46 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

368 confirmed or probable cases in NZ

37 people recovered.

Shit! Now there is the first critical/serious case. I fear we are soon going to be just like everywhere else!

At least there is now a testing capacity of 2,000 per day which apparently is on a per capita par with Germany.

George the original one
Posts: 5369
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

AnalyticalEngine wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:44 pm
I also feel like a lot of these headlines are taking the "asymptomatic" cases out of context.
After listening to today's White House briefing, they're taking them out of context. Dr. Birx said the spread of COVID-19 doesn't match their models, so either people are asymptomatic or they don't really understand how it spreads. I'll take the latter rather than the former, maybe a small mix.

AnalyticalEngine
Posts: 403
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:57 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

George the original one wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:05 pm
Dr. Birx said the spread of COVID-19 doesn't match their models
That's interesting. Did she mention in what ways the spread of COVID-19 doesn't match their models? Is it spreading faster than they were expecting?

theanimal
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Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 10:05 pm
Location: AK
Contact:

Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

Marc Lipsitch, an infectious disease epidemiologist, who was part of the group who produced some of the models Dr. Birx was talking about had a response on Twitter here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243 ... 15136.html

bostonimproper
Posts: 254
Joined: Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:45 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by bostonimproper »

Individual states are competing against each other, bidding up prices on key medical supplies. Blue state governors believe they cannot rely on federal reserves of medical equipment.

From CNN:
Frustration over the Wild West-style market for these essential medical goods has bubbled up with increasing heat over the past few days. Speaking to reporters, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker underscored the absurd push-and-pull between government officials and manufacturers.

"In one case (a ventilator maker) told me I was competing with FEMA to acquire ventilators. So they told me I'm competing against the federal government to get ventilators from the state of Illinois. And the federal government is not distributing ventilators to the state of Illinois, so I'm literally working against a competitor," Pritzker said, relaying a story he told Trump.
Relevant thread from Tom Inglesby about how federal government could coordinate that's worth a read.

slowtraveler
Posts: 757
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:06 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by slowtraveler »

2 professors of medicine at Stanford do some math and realize the fatality rate may be orders of magnitude lower than predicted because actual infections are orders of magnitude higher than current numbers. So all deaths and serious cases are counted with the lower number of confirmed infections rather than real infections*.

This article is mostly covered here ** as well if you can't get around the wsj paywall.

In short, it may just be a more contagious flu. Mortality rate may be on par with a normal flu in the .1% range. 1/1000 deaths/infections.

*https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-cor ... 1585088464

**https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... ality-rate

classical_Liberal
Posts: 2053
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:05 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:02 pm
The Stanford research used the incident rate in Vo and projected it out to include the entire province and also relied on NBA testing data? :? In Veneto, where 8% of the population was tested with attempt to go deep enough to hit asymptomatic, the death rate was much lower than Lombardy, but still over 2% due to similar aged population-IOW reflective of near 1% rate in less aged population.
Ok, I could use some help from a math wiz. The US is currently running it's 2020 census. So the infrastructure is already in place to mail outserolgy kits to each household(ie to each census household), at a cost of about $20 per person based on the information I've seen. This would cost around 7 billion, drops in the bucket compared to stimulus. People then use the census site to report household findings, just like the census, with similar response rates.

Let's assume the current serology test kits are not 100% accurate, with some amount of random false positives and random false negatives. How would the variable of accuracy percentage of serology testing impact the data for a general sense of COVID exposure rates? Would 90% be enough? How about less?

Basically my question is, would this make sense if we could ramp up production of home serology tests effectively enough to do something like this? How accurate would the test really need to be to get some general public health guidance on the situation? At least we'd have the data and could modify it as research continues on the test itself and true accuracy rates are fleshed out. We could even use tests from several different sources, hoping that at least one of them is accurate enough in the end to get some good data. That would probably make production levels easier as well.

LiliLost
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Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:18 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by LiliLost »

Coronavirus COVID-19 preventive measureshttps://creazilla.com/nodes/18821-stop- ... ms-vector
Image

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C40
Posts: 2548
Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2011 4:30 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by C40 »

Here is a collection of Covid-related videos.. mostly from China and Iran. Mostly cel-phone videos.

https://archive.nothingburger.today/Vid ... d_or_Dead/

I believe many of these are videos that the governments (in China and Iran probably) would not allow sharing.

warning - these can be disturbing. Lots of patients in bad conditions, dead bodies, etc.
Last edited by C40 on Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:10 am, edited 3 times in total.

IlliniDave
Posts: 3069
Joined: Wed Apr 02, 2014 7:46 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by IlliniDave »

They told us at work the folks in the hazmat suits would be in yesterday evening to perform a "deep cleaning". Story is that someone who works on the campus was in contact with someone covid-19 positive. The person is in self-quarantine without symptoms but hasn't been tested. Because of HIPAA they won't id the individual, so I can't judge my personal risk based on the "incident" any more than that. That's the closest the virus has penetrated my orbit so far.

Latest is 531 confirmed cases in the state out of about 4,080 tests performed and 43 positives in my county. Testing guidelines are pretty strict still, as far as I know, and the implication from state department of health data is that about 13% of the statewide population identified by medical providers as displaying symptoms associated with covid-19 and subsequently tested are testing positive. Because of the way the data is collected there are unreported negative specimens (private labs are required to report all positives to the state, but not all private labs furnish negative result data to the state according to the state department of health). So the ratio of positives to tests successfully performed is probably a little lower.

Bad news is that the virus is established here and illnesses from it are on the rise. The good news, if you could call it that, is that data implies that less than 20% of the people around here sick with covid-19-like symptoms are infected with covid-19. I'm still hopeful (but not confident) that the arrival of warm weather will blunt the spread.

My city is still not under any sort of shelter-in-place, just the restrictions I mentioned before on bars and restaurants and other businesses and venues where moderate or large numbers of people would gather. No idea what the local hospital situation is. My local grocery store is setting aside some time first thing in the morning for folks over 65 only. That seems like a pretty good idea and allows that cohort to shop with reduced risk if they choose to do so.

Looks like I'll have to make my own decision when enough is enough and I stop going into work.

ertyu
Posts: 1450
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

Keeping my fingers crossed for you, UK! BoJo is doing his part for #HerdImmunity! He may die - but that is a sacrifice I'm willing to accept.

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Bankai
Posts: 816
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

Quite a lot of high profile politicians in the UK already got it: Prince of Whales:), UK Health Secretary and now BoJo to name a few. Is it a chance, the fact that they meet a lot more people each day or has the virus spread much wider than suspected?
Last edited by Bankai on Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

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