COVID-19

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bigato
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bigato »

thrifty: spanish flu came from pigs in the us, h5n6 came from birds in philipines, so it's not like it's a chinese problem. Unless you are advocating the world go vegan, in which case I'd agree :)

ertyu
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

On why china has had issues with controlling the wet markets:

Authoritarianism in china is very strange. There is quite an element of "god is high, the emperor is far" to it; while technically many regulations exist, there are often issues with applying them because at the grassroots level, the system is actually run by a local web of connections and relationships causing things to get "overlooked." The central government has a lot of control, but at the same time, state monopolies and local gvt officials play cat and mouse with them all the time. Recommend "china's great wall of debt" as a book that in addition to discussing debt places it in the context of china's diffuse relationships of power. Another recommendation highlighting how power in china works: the documentary "under the dome" which highlights some of the challenges with enforcing pollution laws. should be somewhere on youtube.

In general, to rant about how disgusting and third world china is because of the practices of some of its people is kind of like going to the states, then going, idk, in rural mississippi, finding a bunch of crackheads who live in the stench of the local slaughterhouse and have a communal shit bucket, and using those people to characterize "America." Yes, those people exist - enough of them exist to become a stereotype. But also, some of the most forward thinkers and scientists in the world today are american.

Now that the wet markets have become a serious problem, I believe the ban will be enforced. Time will tell, though. Many people believe the ban will only force the practice underground.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

There's a tendency to classify those behaviors that one does not oneself engage in as nasty. Bad behaviors for zoonotic epidemics from the perspective of humans are:
  • Encroaching on nature - humans cutting down forests to build housing in "natural surroundings".
  • Non-necessary air travel - tourists and business people flitting around the world allowing for rapid transmission .
  • Individualism and free public movement - why the west is in deeper shit than China/the east is and was.
  • Having babies and growing our population - the enormous and still growing biomass of humans constitute about 30% of all vertebrate biomass now... an enormous food source for vira and bacteria. It's very easy to infect other humans when they're nearby.
  • Wet markets - mixing nature with other nature (e.g. bats and ducks) and humans in pursuit of culinary experiences.
  • Eating meat - domesticated animals make up an astounding 60%+ of vertebrate biomass... an even greater bacterial and viral food source and part of the reason we use so much antibiotics (most go to livestock), developing superbugs in the process.
Of course these are all good habits from the perspective of an infectious disease as they expand the food supply of delicious humans. Of course one could also argue that this [pandemic] is just a natural process. Before antibiotics and public sanitation measures, it actually was. We might have reached the point in terms of our numbers and general behavior where these measures are not enough anymore for the world we've created.

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TheWanderingScholar
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Re: COVID-19

Post by TheWanderingScholar »

Eh, we still more than likely have a recession on the way for the entire world, which will also hurt China as well as it still depends on outside trade. If Depression becomes actualized, any good will people had for China, from delaying this virus will be gone. There has already been talks about countries who can afford to take their medical production "in-house" will try to, with Germany already discussing this recently in the past couple of weeks and I imagine EU as a whole will soon be bringing it up as well. USA will probably be doing so as well depending on how bad it is.

China still has other problems such as debt woes, African Swine Flu still kicking about inflating pork prices, the knock-off effects of the One Child Policy will be kicking in soon causing a social security crunch as the old quickly outnumber the young. If China is going to ascendant during the 2020's, it has rocky road ahead of it. And that is not including climate change.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:37 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 9a Tue, Mar 17
- 65 Positives
- 968 Negatives
- 1 Death
- 215 Pending

Cases by County
- 2 Benton (Corvallis) - Note these are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 6 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 6 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 15 Linn (Albany)
- 4 Marion (Salem)
- 3 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 21 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 1 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 3 17 or younger
- 4 18-24
- 1 25-34
- 15 35-54
- 42 55+
Commercial testing labs still not online, though Kaiser-Permanente expects to be going this week and OHSU next week. Health worker protective gear in short supply.

Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Wed, Mar 18
- 75 Positives
- 1118 Negatives
- 3 Deaths
- 361 Pending

Cases by County
- 3 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 6 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 6 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 2 Lane (Eugene)
- 15 Linn (Albany)
- 8 Marion (Salem)
- 3 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 23 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 2 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 4 17 or younger
- 4 18-24
- 1 25-34
- 19 35-54
- 47 55+

slowtraveler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by slowtraveler »

Does anywhere actually show how many people have been tested?

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

slowtraveler wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:57 pm
Does anywhere actually show how many people have been tested?
CDC site shows total tests for the USA. You have to add up a column of numbers. We're at about 32,000, doing a little over 3,000 tests per day now. Compare with South Korea which has done 300,000 tests.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

https://www.politico.com//interactives/ ... new-cases/ (US testing tracker)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6 (Jos Hopkins ... a bit slow these days)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... rue&lsrp=2 (tons of data, sometimes closed to the public or overloaded)
https://covid19info.live/ (for those who like apps)
https://www.bing.com/covid (Microsoft's contribution ... seems to be the fastest and most up to date currently)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (an increasingly larger text file)
https://www.healthmap.org/covid-19/ (animation of the spread that gets updated every few days)
https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... on-reports (the daily sitreps .. lag time on numbers)

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

bigato wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:49 pm
thrifty: spanish flu came from pigs in the us, h5n6 came from birds in philipines, so it's not like it's a chinese problem. Unless you are advocating the world go vegan, in which case I'd agree :)
I'm not vegan but we'd all be so much better off if we just stopped eating animal products. None of these viruses and we'd all be so much healthier. It's probably not the time to argue this though.

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

Peanut wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:47 pm
@Thrifty: You’ve been yammering about this for a while. We get it, you blame China and the Chinese. Take a seat next to Trump.
Lots of people are blaming China but you look at the way Trump has handled this situation and it's clear the guy is a fool. I'm also no Trump hater. In Australia we have a term called "yobbo". It means that you are rough around the edges and uncultured. I fall into this category myself a lot of the time. Trump to me is a "yobbo". He just isn't the right person to be in charge in a situation like this. In stating that I think he is changing his tune and is starting to realize it's a problem.

I'm happy to crucify China but the western world has handled this situation atrociously.

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

Ego wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:15 pm
Yes, you may have missed it but I included that same study at the bottom of that post.
Indeed I did, thanks and sorry I missed it.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:20 pm
State of Washington published count as of 3:15p Tue, 17 Mar
- 1012 Positives
- 13117 Negatives
- 52 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 4 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 7 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 14 Island (Coupeville)
- 3 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 569 King (Seattle)
- 7 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 3 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 1 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 1 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 45 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 9 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 254 Snohomish (Everett)
- 4 Spokane (Spokane)
- 5 Thurston (Olympia)
- 6 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 5 Yakima (Yakima)
- 70 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 7% 0-29
- 12% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 16% 50-59
- 15% 60-69
- 17% 70-79
- 17% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown
175 new cases picking up Chelan, Franklin, & Mason counties. Age distribution continues to slide younger.

State of Washington published count as of 3:25p Wed, 18 Mar
- 1187 Positives
- 15918 Negatives
- 66 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 2 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 4 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 1 Franklin (Pasco)
- 8 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 16 Island (Coupeville)
- 4 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 562 King (Seattle)
- 9 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 4 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 1 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 1 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 1 Mason (Shelton)
- 56 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 14 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 310 Snohomish (Everett)
- 4 Spokane (Spokane)
- 6 Thurston (Olympia)
- 7 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 7 Yakima (Yakima)
- 167 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 8% 0-29
- 12% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 17% 50-59
- 15% 60-69
- 16% 70-79
- 16% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Preliminary study from CDC (released today) on hospitalization rates (by age, even!), ICU admission, and fatalities: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/ ... mm6912e2_w

China reported 1-in-5 needing hospitalization and CDC comes to the same conclusion (or worse!) with USA cases.

Jin+Guice
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

Things are going pretty badly in New Orleans. All of the restaurants are closed (still offering take-out though, so pretty much still fucking shit up) so most of my friends are either out of work or on extremely reduced hours. All of the bars are closed so all musicians are out of work. The New Orleans attitude is *not great* for a crisis of this nature. I had some hope, because this is vaguely reminiscent of a hurricane, that people would respond well, but that has not been the case. My GF had to go to Bourbon St. for an article she was writing, she wore an N95 and biked... "Nice Hazmat suit, lemme see them titties." People were still out partying with restaurants serving booze in to go cups. The streets are emptier than they would normally be (March is guaranteed nice weather here and it's still cold in most states that have winter, so it's the busiest tourist season except for major events), but there are still plenty of people out. I've seen maybe 1 or 2 people wearing a mask or gloves.

I've recovered from my cold (still no idea if it was COVID-19 or not). It was very mild but stuck around for 7 days with the worst day being day 4. Today is the first day that I'm totally better. The protocol is to quarantine for 14 days after I feel better correct?

I really think we are fucked on containment. The people who aren't trying are extremely not trying. I don't think people are going to isolate without some sort of militarized enforcement, which is also scary. How is the forced isolation in SF going? Is anyone on here not totally isolating aside from groceries? I'm considering small gatherings of friends (like 1-on-1) who also have no symptoms after I'm done quarantining. Is this horribly irresponsible?

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Sclass
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Sclass »

People in my suburb of Orange County are moving around. They certainly aren’t partying like what you’re seeing. Mostly scared looking seniors and soccer moms getting groceries and running errands. No mask wearing but people are trying to distance themselves.

My neighbors are saying via social media that the stores are out of the typical items like canned food and pasta. There is plenty of produce though. I plan to go out tomorrow. Wearing a mask cautiously because I’m worried I’ll get mugged for it. There isn’t a mask left on the shelves anywhere in town.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

A clearing house for those who want to volunteer for Covid projects.

https://helpwithcovid.com/

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

steveo73 wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:43 pm
Lots of people are blaming China but you look at the way Trump has handled this situation and it's clear the guy is a fool. I'm also no Trump hater. In Australia we have a term called "yobbo". It means that you are rough around the edges and uncultured. I fall into this category myself a lot of the time. Trump to me is a "yobbo". He just isn't the right person to be in charge in a situation like this. In stating that I think he is changing his tune and is starting to realize it's a problem.

I'm happy to crucify China but the western world has handled this situation atrociously
Agree that Trump is not the right person to be dealing with all this.

This has fallen out more badly for the west for cultural reasons. The govt was able to get away with a heavy handed authoritarian approach to bring the virus under control (in China). I cant imagine this approach ever having worked in Italy for cultural reasons. Would have been too much backlash. But I think now that the west is starting to understand what is required to bring it under control things will start to fall into line, although a little more messily. Although how things go in the USA is probably a bit of a wild card being the mother ship of libertarianism.

theanimal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by theanimal »

My community has a Facebook page that serves as the neighborhood message board. I made a post yesterday offering to pick up/drop off groceries for any older members of the community who are looking to avoid going on. Nothing yet. If anyone's community has something similar and you're looking to help it'd probably be very much appreciated. Some of the elderly are very scared to go out.

It sucks not being able to do anything to combat the virus other than staying home (without a technical background). If anyone has any suggestions on how to help besides the link above please share.

black_son_of_gray
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Re: COVID-19

Post by black_son_of_gray »

Jin+Guice wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:32 pm
I don't think people are going to isolate without some sort of militarized enforcement, which is also scary. How is the forced isolation in SF going? [...] I'm considering small gatherings of friends (like 1-on-1) who also have no symptoms after I'm done quarantining. Is this horribly irresponsible?
Two full days of mandatory "shelter in place" here in Bay Area. Legally speaking, meeting up with friends, even just one, is a misdemeanor punishable by fine or imprisonment- but SFPD and mayor have said they are going to be lax about this. I haven't seen a single cop (just a pair of parked patrol cars once).

This has been what I've seen during the ~2.5 hours of walking around that I've done for exercise during the last two days: 1) There are a ton more people walking around than normal. In the neighborhoods around me, that means a couple people per block on average. People have been good about keeping distance, but yeah... it looks nothing like the footage I've seen from France, Italy, or Spain, where the police will ask for papers and/or the public spaces are empty. The first thing you realize is that sidewalks are not six feet wide! So you get into a lot of awkward games of chicken. I walk next to the parked cars in the street when the road is clear. Oh yeah, and kids. They're mostly with their parents/playing in front yards, but they are all over the place. 2) Considering you are only supposed to make essential car trips, there's actually a lot of traffic. If I didn't know the "shelter in place" was happening, I wouldn't have even registered a difference. 3) The commercial street near me was about 25-50% of normal in terms of pedestrians/parking. 4) Two-car light-rail that I saw today around rush hour had maybe a dozen people on it, maybe three wearing masks. It would normally have maybe 4-5x that. 5) A lot of people are making use of local parks, which is kinda annoying, because I used to have those places mostly to myself. 5) Haven't been to a grocery store, but the local paper/news stations have talked up lots of empty shelves for the last few days. 6) You know who really has it made? Pets. I've never seen so many people walking the dog in the middle of the day. (Happy for them)

Summary: I'm fairly sure this won't be as effective as the European lockdowns - it certainly isn't as strictly enforced. But at the same time, maybe it'll get 80+% of the results? No one seems to be flagrantly violating the order, and because of store/restaurant/venue closures, there really isn't much to do besides hang out at home or take a walk anyway. From what I can tell from Wuhan, South Korea, and starting to show up in Italy, the "topping" process of the curve takes about 5 days (same length of time as exposure>symptoms), so I'm hoping by the weekend, there'll be numbers to show that the infection rate has started leveling off in the Bay Area.

enigmaT120
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Re: COVID-19

Post by enigmaT120 »

I'm jealous of the people who catch it early, recover hopefully without infecting anyone else, and can get on with their lives.

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