COVID-19

[steveo73]

thrifty: spanish flu came from pigs in the us, h5n6 came from birds in philipines, so it's not like it's a chinese problem. Unless you are advocating the world go vegan, in which case I'd agree

I'm not vegan but we'd all be so much better off if we just stopped eating animal products. None of these viruses and we'd all be so much healthier. It's probably not the time to argue this though.

[steveo73]

@Thrifty: You’ve been yammering about this for a while. We get it, you blame China and the Chinese. Take a seat next to Trump.

Lots of people are blaming China but you look at the way Trump has handled this situation and it's clear the guy is a fool. I'm also no Trump hater. In Australia we have a term called "yobbo". It means that you are rough around the edges and uncultured. I fall into this category myself a lot of the time. Trump to me is a "yobbo". He just isn't the right person to be in charge in a situation like this. In stating that I think he is changing his tune and is starting to realize it's a problem.

I'm happy to crucify China but the western world has handled this situation atrociously.

[classical_Liberal]

Yes, you may have missed it but I included that same study at the bottom of that post.

Indeed I did, thanks and sorry I missed it.

[George the original one]

State of Washington published count as of 3:15p Tue, 17 Mar
- 1012 Positives
- 13117 Negatives
- 52 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 4 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 7 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 14 Island (Coupeville)
- 3 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 569 King (Seattle)
- 7 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 3 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 1 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 1 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 45 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 9 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 254 Snohomish (Everett)
- 4 Spokane (Spokane)
- 5 Thurston (Olympia)
- 6 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 5 Yakima (Yakima)
- 70 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 7% 0-29
- 12% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 16% 50-59
- 15% 60-69
- 17% 70-79
- 17% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown

175 new cases picking up Chelan, Franklin, & Mason counties. Age distribution continues to slide younger.

State of Washington published count as of 3:25p Wed, 18 Mar
- 1187 Positives
- 15918 Negatives
- 66 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 2 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 4 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 1 Franklin (Pasco)
- 8 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 16 Island (Coupeville)
- 4 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 562 King (Seattle)
- 9 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 4 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 1 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 1 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 1 Mason (Shelton)
- 56 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 14 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 310 Snohomish (Everett)
- 4 Spokane (Spokane)
- 6 Thurston (Olympia)
- 7 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 7 Yakima (Yakima)
- 167 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 8% 0-29
- 12% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 17% 50-59
- 15% 60-69
- 16% 70-79
- 16% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown

[George the original one]

Preliminary study from CDC (released today) on hospitalization rates (by age, even!), ICU admission, and fatalities: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/ ... mm6912e2_w

China reported 1-in-5 needing hospitalization and CDC comes to the same conclusion (or worse!) with USA cases.

[Jin+Guice]

Things are going pretty badly in New Orleans. All of the restaurants are closed (still offering take-out though, so pretty much still fucking shit up) so most of my friends are either out of work or on extremely reduced hours. All of the bars are closed so all musicians are out of work. The New Orleans attitude is *not great* for a crisis of this nature. I had some hope, because this is vaguely reminiscent of a hurricane, that people would respond well, but that has not been the case. My GF had to go to Bourbon St. for an article she was writing, she wore an N95 and biked... "Nice Hazmat suit, lemme see them titties." People were still out partying with restaurants serving booze in to go cups. The streets are emptier than they would normally be (March is guaranteed nice weather here and it's still cold in most states that have winter, so it's the busiest tourist season except for major events), but there are still plenty of people out. I've seen maybe 1 or 2 people wearing a mask or gloves.

I've recovered from my cold (still no idea if it was COVID-19 or not). It was very mild but stuck around for 7 days with the worst day being day 4. Today is the first day that I'm totally better. The protocol is to quarantine for 14 days after I feel better correct?

I really think we are fucked on containment. The people who aren't trying are extremely not trying. I don't think people are going to isolate without some sort of militarized enforcement, which is also scary. How is the forced isolation in SF going? Is anyone on here not totally isolating aside from groceries? I'm considering small gatherings of friends (like 1-on-1) who also have no symptoms after I'm done quarantining. Is this horribly irresponsible?

[Sclass]

People in my suburb of Orange County are moving around. They certainly aren’t partying like what you’re seeing. Mostly scared looking seniors and soccer moms getting groceries and running errands. No mask wearing but people are trying to distance themselves.

My neighbors are saying via social media that the stores are out of the typical items like canned food and pasta. There is plenty of produce though. I plan to go out tomorrow. Wearing a mask cautiously because I’m worried I’ll get mugged for it. There isn’t a mask left on the shelves anywhere in town.

[Ego]

A clearing house for those who want to volunteer for Covid projects.

https://helpwithcovid.com/

[thrifty++]

Lots of people are blaming China but you look at the way Trump has handled this situation and it's clear the guy is a fool. I'm also no Trump hater. In Australia we have a term called "yobbo". It means that you are rough around the edges and uncultured. I fall into this category myself a lot of the time. Trump to me is a "yobbo". He just isn't the right person to be in charge in a situation like this. In stating that I think he is changing his tune and is starting to realize it's a problem.

I'm happy to crucify China but the western world has handled this situation atrociously

Agree that Trump is not the right person to be dealing with all this.

This has fallen out more badly for the west for cultural reasons. The govt was able to get away with a heavy handed authoritarian approach to bring the virus under control (in China). I cant imagine this approach ever having worked in Italy for cultural reasons. Would have been too much backlash. But I think now that the west is starting to understand what is required to bring it under control things will start to fall into line, although a little more messily. Although how things go in the USA is probably a bit of a wild card being the mother ship of libertarianism.

[theanimal]

My community has a Facebook page that serves as the neighborhood message board. I made a post yesterday offering to pick up/drop off groceries for any older members of the community who are looking to avoid going on. Nothing yet. If anyone's community has something similar and you're looking to help it'd probably be very much appreciated. Some of the elderly are very scared to go out.

It sucks not being able to do anything to combat the virus other than staying home (without a technical background). If anyone has any suggestions on how to help besides the link above please share.

[black_son_of_gray]

I don't think people are going to isolate without some sort of militarized enforcement, which is also scary. How is the forced isolation in SF going? [...] I'm considering small gatherings of friends (like 1-on-1) who also have no symptoms after I'm done quarantining. Is this horribly irresponsible?

Two full days of mandatory "shelter in place" here in Bay Area. Legally speaking, meeting up with friends, even just one, is a misdemeanor punishable by fine or imprisonment- but SFPD and mayor have said they are going to be lax about this. I haven't seen a single cop (just a pair of parked patrol cars once).

This has been what I've seen during the ~2.5 hours of walking around that I've done for exercise during the last two days: 1) There are a ton more people walking around than normal. In the neighborhoods around me, that means a couple people per block on average. People have been good about keeping distance, but yeah... it looks nothing like the footage I've seen from France, Italy, or Spain, where the police will ask for papers and/or the public spaces are empty. The first thing you realize is that sidewalks are not six feet wide! So you get into a lot of awkward games of chicken. I walk next to the parked cars in the street when the road is clear. Oh yeah, and kids. They're mostly with their parents/playing in front yards, but they are all over the place. 2) Considering you are only supposed to make essential car trips, there's actually a lot of traffic. If I didn't know the "shelter in place" was happening, I wouldn't have even registered a difference. 3) The commercial street near me was about 25-50% of normal in terms of pedestrians/parking. 4) Two-car light-rail that I saw today around rush hour had maybe a dozen people on it, maybe three wearing masks. It would normally have maybe 4-5x that. 5) A lot of people are making use of local parks, which is kinda annoying, because I used to have those places mostly to myself. 5) Haven't been to a grocery store, but the local paper/news stations have talked up lots of empty shelves for the last few days. 6) You know who really has it made? Pets. I've never seen so many people walking the dog in the middle of the day. (Happy for them)

Summary: I'm fairly sure this won't be as effective as the European lockdowns - it certainly isn't as strictly enforced. But at the same time, maybe it'll get 80+% of the results? No one seems to be flagrantly violating the order, and because of store/restaurant/venue closures, there really isn't much to do besides hang out at home or take a walk anyway. From what I can tell from Wuhan, South Korea, and starting to show up in Italy, the "topping" process of the curve takes about 5 days (same length of time as exposure>symptoms), so I'm hoping by the weekend, there'll be numbers to show that the infection rate has started leveling off in the Bay Area.

[enigmaT120]

I'm jealous of the people who catch it early, recover hopefully without infecting anyone else, and can get on with their lives.

[llorona]

How is the forced isolation in SF going? Is anyone on here not totally isolating aside from groceries? I'm considering small gatherings of friends (like 1-on-1) who also have no symptoms after I'm done quarantining. Is this horribly irresponsible?

Everyone I know is complying with the shelter in place order. Today my husband and I drove to a park to take a walk. Considering that it normally would have been rush hour, there were fewer cars on the road -- I'm guessing maybe a 70% to 90% reduction from usual. There were quite a few people at the park, but again, many less than normal. Some were wearing masks and gloves. Park-goers included two police officers who were talking to each other through their vehicle windows and appeared to be completely unconcerned about monitoring social distancing.

There are still quite a few places where we're allowed to make essential trips (i.e., grocery stores, restaurant take out, banks, hardware stores, gas stations, pharmacies) plus some folks commute to jobs at essential businesses/municipal functions, so it was no surprise to see other human beings.

Passed by two grocery stores on the way home and there were spaces available in the parking lot. No idea if there was still any food inside.

Summary: I'm fairly sure this won't be as effective as the European lockdowns - it certainly isn't as strictly enforced. But at the same time, maybe it'll get 80+% of the results? No one seems to be flagrantly violating the order, and because of store/restaurant/venue closures, there really isn't much to do besides hang out at home or take a walk anyway. From what I can tell from Wuhan, South Korea, and starting to show up in Italy, the "topping" process of the curve takes about 5 days (same length of time as exposure>symptoms), so I'm hoping by the weekend, there'll be numbers to show that the infection rate has started leveling off in the Bay Area.

Agree with this because the "borders" of the SF Bay Area area still wide open. Even though we're not supposed to cross county lines or leave the Bay Area, it doesn't look like this is being enforced. Hope that partial containment will reduce cases or at least help delay a spike in community transmission.

[BMF1102]

Apparently a couple of Nuclear plants in New York, Fitspatrick & Nine Mile have cancelled their outages (shutdowns for major maintenance) due to the health concerns. I assume because an outage brings in a couple thousand extra people from all over the country/world. Here in Michigan at Fermi they have brought in tents and trailers. I'm hearing from coworkers, that if some one comes down with the virus they will all be quarantined on site until the work is complete and they have passed health checks.

[jacob]

Kinsa has distributed a network of smart thermometers all over the country in order to track the flu. This ostensibly works better than CDC's reporting methods. They've created a website that shows not only what people's temperatures are over the country now (at the county level), but also where they're atypically higher than last years number. The latter could indicate areas of C19.

https://healthweather.us/

[jacob]

Wuhan reports ZERO new cases for the first time.

Life under lock down in Wuhan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyucJekT87E (previously posted)

[horsewoman]

Some numbers from Germany - Schools and lots of shops are closed, there is no curfew like in Austria but people are strongly encouraged to stay home.
Source: https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona ... -weltweit/

(1) confirmed cases, (2) recovered (3) deaths

March 16 19:00 (1) 7.241 (2) 65 (3) 15
March 17 17:00 (1) 8.616 (2) 67 (3) 23
March 18 20:00 (1) 12.327 (2) 105 (3) 28
March 19 16:00 (1) 14.292 (2) 113 (3) 43

[FRx]

As a physician seeing patients in South Central Los Angeles it's been an interesting experience. The lack of reliable information disseminated to us docs is simply odd. We can't get the CEO's of the clinic or gov't officials to give us proper guidance on what to do. Each workflow creates another problem. We can't send patients to the ER but we can't test them or properly examine them.
The telemedicine rules are more lax but most clinics are still afraid of excess malpractice risk and we certainly don't have the infrastructure to see these growing number of patients who are on the fringes of healthcare to begin with.

And still, as a physician, I don't know if I'm missing something or simply am too naive to recognize this as nothing more than a flu virus, not much different from H1N1 or other SARS outbreaks. Deaths will occur as they always do. Medications, even though available for flu viruses, are still quite ineffective for most outpatient cases and even inpatient cases. We've always known they are mostly bullshit but if you don't prescribe tamiflu to a patient with a flu you'll get your ass sued back to the dark ages.

Still, I'm sad that I don't have any support from the major medical establishments to give me more guidance. It's just panic and chaos and hiding behind carefully phrases online sentences. I don't even have access to instagram or twitter and other websites on my work computer because someone decided that those are "social media" sites and don't warrant access for a physician. I even get blocked out of some website where there are images of genitals and breasts because the brilliant software things it's porn - but that's been the case for years, nothing new.

I still haven't heard anyone say that I'll have a reprieve from being sued if I mistake the flu for corona or vice versa. As such, most of my colleagues are tweaking their documents properly and sending specific patients home because we don't want to miss something or be held liable for not following some guideline which was never given to us. Patients are lying about their symptoms, understandibly so because they are afraid of being labeled as "corona-ish".

[Sclass]

@FRx thanks for sharing. Very interesting stuff there.

[CS]

@FRx
I think some hospital admins deserve to have their heads on the chopping blocks at this point. They don't want to stock the necessary equipment reserves because *costs* but then always have enough for their salaries. When I was on a contract in NC, a law passed mandating public sharing of salaries for those folks and it was enraging to see where the money was going. No admin rationally deserves 1million+ a year.

Just by chance, someone today posted this detailed handbook on another forum I read. It is based on experiences of the Chinese doctors. The translation was funded by Jack Ma.

Handbook of Covid-19 Prevention and Treatment from Hospital with 0% fatality
https://video-intl.alicdn.com/Handbook% ... atment.pdf

Disclaimer - I have not had time to study it. I'm in danger of blowing a book deadline so have to get back to it. I did open it and take a look. It looks legit. There are protocols for testing, management and nursing. The whole process.
We are so short of on equipment, it is criminal.

A smuggled out video of what the hospitals were like:
https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1220 ... 22784?s=20

Cuomo is already talking about this reality. They are going to waive laws about space (the 15' wide rule and all that for hallways, etc) because it is going to be sardines in a can. If we're lucky.
https://youtu.be/l2mFu9IilAI