Investments Trade Log

[cmonkey]

Here we go Dow 20,000!! WOOOO!

[thegreatvoid]

how low do you think the market could go ?

[just]

@jacob: So what is your interpretation of the stock market overreaction? Because the rate hike was anticipated from my understanding. Is it because investors only wanted to move over once the rate was hiked? I mean, can you only get short term instruments with a interest rate of 2.5% once the FED hikes the rate?

[jacob]

Turns out risk-off made sense. There was some statement language that the Fed will no longer manage for volatility (no Powell put).

[cmonkey]

Going to watch for 7%.

Patience is a virtue! Too bad I bought at 6.5%.

[George the original one]

Patience is a virtue! Too bad I bought at 6.5%.

T @7.12% yield this morning, so I finally couldn't resist. Only bought a token amount in an IRA in case it's a value trap.

[Mister Imperceptible]

Interesting interview with Stan Drunkenmiller. I like his comment @29:15 that one of his investing strengths was being open minded.

At 10m30s he rips Dalio without mentioning him.

I agree, nothing beautiful about it.

[George the original one]

I got out of AVA (Avista, electric utility) a few quarters after the deal to be purchased by Hydro One (Canadian utility) was announced. The buyout price was good, got to collect a few more dividends, but didn't see any reason to hang on until the buyout was finished.

About two weeks ago, Washington PUC denied the buyout and the stock price sank. It hadn't dropped sufficiently to make a case for adding AVA back to my portfolio based on yield, however I've just stumbled onto this little tidbit which makes me reconsider:
"Hydro One would owe Avista a $103 million break-up fee if the merger isn’t approved by regulators, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission."

AVA has about 65 million shares, so a $103 million payout is not bad. And if the deal eventually goes through, share price will go back up about $8.

[Mister Imperceptible]

Great interview with Jeff Gundlach. He hits all the notes.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hA_kg_nMGNU

I might open an account with Treasury Direct next week and buy some 2-year Treasury notes to compliment my precious metals. That is all the duration risk I am willing to take. Gundlach opines that the the 10-year Treasury could yield 6% in just a few years.

Edit: Treasury yields for durations 1 year or longer look like they peaked in early November. Not sure if bond buyers have the power to keep them low. If the bear market deepens then the Fed will likely reverse course, but it will be interesting to see how the short term Fed Funds rate works against the growing deficits. The Chinese and Japanese could dump more of their Treasuries, forcing yields upward as well. The yield curve looks really strange. As Spock would say: “Fascinating.”

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-cente ... &year=2018

[cmonkey]

So many price triggers tripping - Merry Christmas everyone.

[George the original one]

I'm off the idea of AVA this morning. Looking at the revenue and profits, they need a merger (whether they're buying or selling) to justify the current price as the trend is not in their favor.

[jacob]

Nasdaq entered a bear market Friday. S&P500 entered a bear market Monday.

Given TTM earnings and median P/E valuations, the price of the S&P500 would be 2067.
Given CAPE10 earnings and median P/CAPE10 valuations, the price of the S&P500 would be 1413.

The current price of the S&P500 is 2351.

[Michael_00005]

After ignoring the market for for about 3 months I ended up getting back in on 12/24; when the market dives I mostly stop looking. Tripled down on OPI (last 2 days), as I think this one oversold big time. It currently has around * dividend yield.

--Edit At the time of this post E-Trade noted an incorrect dividend of 1.72 (*), they actually will only pay .55. So the yield I originally noted of 21% was incorrect. Guess you have to be very careful of the data being provided on financial sites.

My personal portfolio got clobbered in 2018. Hopefully recoup with some gains in 2019, and be more into cash like investments for the 2nd half of the year. It would have been nice to have had more on the side to capitalize on the pull-back.

[Mister Imperceptible]

Obligatory table pounding.

It’s not too late to question assumptions. The recent bounce looks to me like a great selling opportunity.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/423313 ... ket-cycles

https://seekingalpha.com/article/423231 ... -kirk-gold

https://seekingalpha.com/article/423294 ... -bests-gdx

http://www.myrmikan.com/port/

Outside my retirement accounts I hold cash, 2-year Treasuries, physical gold and silver. (Holding rental property bought 3 years ago.)

In my retirement accounts (~15% of NW) I am long GDXJ and a little SGDM.

If I am wrong, and the Fiat Credit Boom continues, I should have no problem pulling in 6 figures of the fictitious money in the next few years. My portfolio does not exist in a vacuum.

Judging by the reaction to the government shutdown in the US, and civil unrest in Europe, it is clear that no one has any money saved. Individuals, corporations, and sovereigns are collectively broke. A recession has not even hit hard yet. When it does, there will be no alternative but to print. There are too many paper claims on too few goods and services.

You still have time to “make it real.”

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wM6exo00T5I&t=85s

[jacob]

PG&E (PCG) will file for bankruptcy following potential liabilities from wildfires in 2018 and 2017. This wipes out 17B+ of market value + the equity.

Thanks #climatechange

[Mister Imperceptible]

PG&E (PCG) will file for bankruptcy following potential liabilities from wildfires in 2018 and 2017. This wipes out 17B+ of market value + the equity.

Thanks #climatechange

No skin in the game.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/01/14/ ... ankruptcy/

[jacob]

S&P Global Ratings reports the cost in lost productivity due to the shutdown was 6B+
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... PJ2MU?il=0

So back of the envelope: Spread over 35 days, that's 6000M/35=171M/day. To put that in perspective, US GDP (2017) was 19390B or 19390000/365=53123M/day. The shutdown thus caused a GDP drag of 171/53123=0.3%. Expect quarterly GDP to be ~0.08% lower than it would otherwise have been.

For financial markets, this reduction in earnings (even trading at at P/E leverage of ~20) will likely mean less than the market's interpretation of how all this went down.

[Mister Imperceptible]

Grant Williams a guest on MacroVoices (where I also found Chris Cole).

Crony capitalism, populism, violence, the outlook for gold.

Per outlook from Williams (Townsend disagrees), you only need enough dollars to survive the dollar short-squeeze. A strong dollar/worldwide deflation benefits no one, not America, not China, and will eventually be stamped out.

https://www.macrovoices.com/

I am long firearms and canned food.

[Mister Imperceptible]

Neil Howe of “Fourth Turning” fame on Hedgeye TV.

https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/72933- ... type=macro

I am short complacency and long a good sense of humor.

To break up the monotony, here is the Constant Agony of Hans Moleman. The plight of Dr. Fisker is at 2m18s.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fVtrlLeuFvY

[jacob]

I took my previous screen (see above) and added a condition for low institutional (that means pension funds, mutual funds, ...) ownership to reduce index exposure as many indexes are float-adjusted.

The screen now returns only 3 viable candidates ... out of some 8000+. That's a new low.

Also observing that ever since the Powell made some dowish statements, CD yields are no longer increasing/not as high as they were 3 months ago.