Investments Trade Log

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Dream of Freedom »

cmonkey wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:02 pm
Anyone else excited for the T/TWX decision? Care to make any predictions? :D
Sure I predict that putting billions towards TV in a world of Amazon prime video and Netflix will turn out to be foolish.

Chris
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chris »

cmonkey wrote:
Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:02 pm
Anyone else excited for the T/TWX decision? Care to make any predictions? :D
I think it'll happen. It's a vertical merger. Comcast-NBC is the blueprint. The only question is if the government will appeal the ruling.

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jennypenny
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jennypenny »

Any thoughts on why rising interest rates are driving gold prices down? I know gold prices drop when the stock market goes up (generally), but since the 'smart' money is predicting a pullback I would think they would be propping up gold prices.

Anyone with a PP/GB type portfolio have any ideas? I'm tempted to keep adding to my gold position but I don't want to OG.

ThisDinosaur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ThisDinosaur »

Higher rates lure a fraction of investors away from everything else in favor of "safe" yield. It also means it's more expensive to borrow. Fewer borrowers means less money in deposit accounts for banks to loan out. So smaller money supply available for investing in gold or anything else.

Kriegsspiel
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Kriegsspiel »

OG?

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jennypenny
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jennypenny »

Ha, showing my age ... OverGold.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Stay the course jennypenny. Short term manipulations and counterintuitive trends can only make the long term more profitable. Don’t chase yield.

Michael_00005
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Michael_00005 »

Does anyone connect in a smaller group where you exchange buying opportunities? It seems like that could be helpful, if the group had some experience with trading.

If anyone is into short term trading HCLP could be worth a look. Even after its 27% jump today it should have room to run past 13.85. This is one of those stocks that often does well before earnings, and with the bump in dividend disclosed today they basically told everyone earnings will be very good on (7/31 ??), and then a dividend of .75, Ex-date on 8/3. My guess: $15-$18 range before the dividend on 8/3.

An interesting side note with this stock, which you see far too often in the market, where a analyst downgrades a stock just before it takes off in price. A couple weeks ago someone downgraded them (close to earnings), when oil prices have been going up for the quarter. That makes no sense for a company that profits with rising oil prices. Do you suppose some of that is intentional so insiders can buy cheap, or just incompetence?

I already started moving more into cash and hope to be mostly out after 2nd quarter earnings, and then sit out the summer. But if I get stuck holding an oil stock, no big deal. Above is one I've been in and out of all year, it usually starts to dip sometime after earnings, so I'll be looking to sell between earnings and Ex. (if the price goes up), and then potentially buy it back in Oct.. Stock prices are not always rational so it will be interesting to watch the next 10 days.

I would have posted this earlier on 7/23 after increasing my holding, the price was 12.75 then, but alas I"m stuck in a 9 to 5.

cmonkey
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey »

Ugh, why does T keep tempting me. I suspect that dividend is likely safe, but their legacy business just sucks right now. Going to watch for 7%.

Tyler9000
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Tyler9000 »

jennypenny wrote:
Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:08 am
Any thoughts on why rising interest rates are driving gold prices down?
If there's one thing I've learned from in investing in the PP/GB over the years, it's that watching each of the very different assets gives you a unique insight into just how poor the experts are at predicting or explaining macroeconomic price movements. The beauty of buying a chunk of each and letting rebalancing sort things out is that you're covered no matter how poor your instincts are. ;)
Last edited by Tyler9000 on Wed Jul 25, 2018 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Michael_00005
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Michael_00005 »

cmonkey wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:01 pm
Ugh, why does T keep tempting me. I suspect that dividend is likely safe, but their legacy business just sucks right now. Going to watch for 7%.
Good tip, that looks like one to watch, but almost every time I purchase something immediately following earnings and div I regret it as the price continues to fall.

The trade war talk, and good earnings are almost a wash this quarter; it would not be a surprise to see a dip once we loose the balancing factor of good earnings. If the trade war ends we should see a good jump in the market, but when does that happen?

George the original one
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by George the original one »

Michael_00005 wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 5:08 pm
The trade war talk, and good earnings are almost a wash this quarter; it would not be a surprise to see a dip once we loose the balancing factor of good earnings. If the trade war ends we should see a good jump in the market, but when does that happen?
Which trade war? Trump has gone after everybody! It's worse than the Germans opening a second front on Russia.

For now, Euro-zone has gone into cease-fire. Can't say the same for China, NAFTA, etc.

bryan
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by bryan »

bryan wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:11 pm
So all-in-all, it's a bit hard to tell exactly what the result will be for the companies' financials (will it place more demand on upgrades? lawsuits?). I had a negative outlook on Intel even before this, so this another bundle of hay loaded onto the camel.
bryan wrote:
Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:34 pm
Went short QCOM.
Closed this short position (QCOM) to open a short on INTC. I haven't been paying attention else I would have likely closed the QCOM position in May when it was down 20%. I'll settle for ~10% while in the same duration SMH (sector index) is flat and INTC is up 10%. Intel's earnings call is tomorrow. I'm not sure how that call will go, but I think Intel will (relatively) under-perform over the next few quarters. AMD will probably be the main benefactor (in the server market) of Intel's numerous difficulties. AMD is already up 60% since April. I also think AAPL will announce (Sep/Oct or next year) a transition away from Intel to their own processor for the MacBook or MacBook Air (if only AAPL sold their components to external companies..).

Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

cmonkey wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:01 pm
Ugh, why does T keep tempting me. I suspect that dividend is likely safe, but their legacy business just sucks right now. Going to watch for 7%.
The whole telecom sector seems to be suffering, just look at Vodafone and Telefonica which are doing much worse than T.
The idea is that added competition is driving down prices and profitability, same as it was happening with airlines.
I just dipped my toes into both european big players and I'm so far down, but it's too early to evaluate.
What I'm trying to say is that if the same narrative applies to T, it has more room to fall.


In unrelated news, Facebook is down around 20% after market close because of earnings.
I hate the company so can't say I'm sad about this (I'm a believer that fecabook and it subsidiaries are a net negative to the world's wellbeing - not referring to politics/Russia)

cmonkey
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by cmonkey »

Extreme saturation is also not helping. Once everyone has a phone (or 2 or 3) who left to sell too? This is why you see big acquisitions and diversifying happening on large scales.

7% would imply another 6% drop, which would be very nice to pick up. I've had some money in them for a couple years and added a bunch more about a month ago. I'm tempted to add even more. T, and VZ to an extent are definitely not going to grow much in capital value, but they are excellent cash flow engines.

+1 to FB, especially because the money is flowing out of FB and into my value stocks. Might be temporary but its nice for the time being. I just can't wait for AMZN to finally crack. :lol:

bryan
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by bryan »

Bought EWT in long-term portfolio, driven by wanting more TSMC (TSM on NYSE) exposure, today. I reckon TSMC (and MTK in there too) should benefit as Intel and QCOM decline and RISC-V SoCs will be coming down the pipe, eventually. Intel is down 4.7% after hours atm, seemingly due to missing, slightly, targets for data center market growth. So basically predictions/bets are in line with what I have been thinking. It looks like I closed QCOM just in time, too: up 7% today. Sometimes it's stupid how two companies you think will under-perform are also competitors so price movements in the short-term are in opposite directions.

Michael_00005
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Michael_00005 »

net negative to the world's wellbeing
FB is a solid money maker, but i'll put a 4-6 week hold on that one unless it drops into the 160-170 range.
Social media and the internet ended the monopolies of televised news and newspapers so I see it as a mixed bag. People were basically pawns to the few in power who owned these companies and a lot of lies were propagated over the years...it's good to see some of that being corrected.

Strong (US) GDP is expected tomorrow (7/27/18), should be a bump to the markets
Last edited by Michael_00005 on Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Chris
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Chris »

bryan wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:08 pm
Closed this short position (QCOM) to open a short on INTC.
INTC down 8% so far today. Nice one.

George the original one
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by George the original one »

WDC got pounded for 6.7% this morning.

Michael_00005
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Location: East coast USA

LX

Post by Michael_00005 »

Remaining long HCLP positions were closed today, and added a small short position. Now comes the difficult part, staying out of the market (Aug. - Sept.) unless there is a really good deal.

Anyone have an opinion on LX?

--edit-- short position closed after a nice drop (8/3). I would not feel comfortable staying short in oil for a long period, given it's volatility.
Last edited by Michael_00005 on Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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