Investments Trade Log
Eric, I have seen no evidence that technical analysis works in the long run. On the contrary, all of the unimpeached research that I am aware of says it does not work. All systems occasionally work or they wouldn't be systems, but the only consistent winners seem to be the robo traders with servers located a couple of ip hops away from the exchanges. Regular investors have no chance of playing that game.
Edit: Yesterday I placed 3 lowball "bets" on mrk, ge, and intc. I picked up mrk and missed intc by 8 cents. If the market drops today I may get the intc but the ge at 15 will probably take a bit longer.
Edit: Yesterday I placed 3 lowball "bets" on mrk, ge, and intc. I picked up mrk and missed intc by 8 cents. If the market drops today I may get the intc but the ge at 15 will probably take a bit longer.
That's fine. I'm not trying to convince anyone to use technical analysis. I'm merely suggesting that studying market cycles and reviewing market internals may be a useful component of analyzing more or less favorable times to risk your hard earned money. Doing so implies no prediction - just observation.
If you want to see the way a famous value investor uses such information, then check out this Jeremy Grantham article published in January:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/47607952/Jere ... 011-Letter
Just goes to show that there are few ways, all of which are imperfect, to determine some sense of underlying supply and demand in the market. A basic familiarity with such history and precedent probably doesn't hurt.
Best
If you want to see the way a famous value investor uses such information, then check out this Jeremy Grantham article published in January:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/47607952/Jere ... 011-Letter
Just goes to show that there are few ways, all of which are imperfect, to determine some sense of underlying supply and demand in the market. A basic familiarity with such history and precedent probably doesn't hurt.
Best
I agree with that. I just think that published theories can't give you a direct edge because that knowledge is already factored into the market which is essentially what EMT says.
On the other hand, if someone develops a theory that works, they would have little incentive to publish it. They would just use it and get rich.
On the other hand, if someone develops a theory that works, they would have little incentive to publish it. They would just use it and get rich.
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@jerry - don't give up on technical signals for the overall market. See http://www.buydonthold.com/category/blog/ for an example of using technical indicators in the real world... I've been watching the blog carefully since May 2010 and the indicators have been pretty much spot-on.
@george. I checked out buydonthold and I found limited and very short term back testing so it is hard to draw any conclusion without reading the book or watching it for a while.
I will follow it myself for a while and see how he does. I will also try and find out if he is a billionaire or at least very rich. I believe that is the best indicator of a truly successful strategy.
I will follow it myself for a while and see how he does. I will also try and find out if he is a billionaire or at least very rich. I believe that is the best indicator of a truly successful strategy.
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DG
HGIC has been on my watch list for several months. I was anticipating they would have problems with the storms that hit in the early spring. This was revealed in their Q2 earnings report that came out Monday with the share price being hit as a result. I don't have to tell you what the rest of the week has done to the price. No way of knowing if the markets are going to go lower, but I'm happy with a YOC of 5.49%
AFL is also on my watch list. I had not been that excited about it due to the yield being just over 2% but now with it over 3% it's got my attention. Seems like the financial sector is getting hammered over the debt problems in both the US and Europe. There are a lot of bargins to be had if you can stomach the risk.
HGIC has been on my watch list for several months. I was anticipating they would have problems with the storms that hit in the early spring. This was revealed in their Q2 earnings report that came out Monday with the share price being hit as a result. I don't have to tell you what the rest of the week has done to the price. No way of knowing if the markets are going to go lower, but I'm happy with a YOC of 5.49%
AFL is also on my watch list. I had not been that excited about it due to the yield being just over 2% but now with it over 3% it's got my attention. Seems like the financial sector is getting hammered over the debt problems in both the US and Europe. There are a lot of bargins to be had if you can stomach the risk.
Different REITs classify dividends differently. @dragoncar is right as to many REIT dividends, i.e., not fully qualified thus treated as income and better kept under a tax umbrella (the regular IRA vs Roth comparison should be made on anticipated taxable income and the compound effect of the initial tax savings over the number of years to withdrawal).
But timberland REITS are different:
http://forisk.wordpress.com/2011/01/19/ ... dividends/
Most timber REIT distributions are taxed as long term capital gains from the sale of timber, so I like to hold them in a taxable account.
But timberland REITS are different:
http://forisk.wordpress.com/2011/01/19/ ... dividends/
Most timber REIT distributions are taxed as long term capital gains from the sale of timber, so I like to hold them in a taxable account.
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In a rare case of good judgement concerning the market, I decided to get completely out 3 weeks ago and wait for the DOW to hit 10500.
I have not waited for 10500 but I am now long on GE, MRK, T, INTC, NLY, WM, TOT. I plan on continuing to buy mostly dividend stocks held by Vanguard Wellesley if the market continues downward.
I have not waited for 10500 but I am now long on GE, MRK, T, INTC, NLY, WM, TOT. I plan on continuing to buy mostly dividend stocks held by Vanguard Wellesley if the market continues downward.
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I purchased 18 shares of COP at $63.65/share on 8/22/11. This doubles my position with ConocoPhillips. This will likely be the last energy purchase for a while, as energy now comprises almost 25% of my portfolio. I feel that's high, and typically would like one sector to comprise no more than 20% of the portfolio.
My next purchase will likely be in the financial or consumer staple sector.
My next purchase will likely be in the financial or consumer staple sector.