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PostPosted: Fri Jul 29, 2011 9:06 pm 

Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2010 7:17 pm
Posts: 1308

We're a slightly more open bunch than normal, so I thought people might be willing to share their trades. I know we all have different goals/styles, so I'm hoping for a thread where we can discuss investments without judgment.


Example (not real):


Bought SPY @ 129 as a short-term trade because I think the debt-ceiling is an overplayed non-issue. Exposure is 5% of my portfolio.


Maybe nobody will be interested in this, or maybe nobody trades often enough for it to be useful. However, I think it could be very helpful to identify trends, styles, and potential investments for further research.


Of course, the entire thread would carry the caveat that this is not investment advice, for discussion purposes only, and that everyone should do their own research. I would not expect anyone to blindly mimic trades.




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PostPosted: Fri Jul 29, 2011 9:35 pm 

Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 4:51 pm
Posts: 11

I like this idea. I went to all cash a week or 2 ago. I've been thinking of doing a short term index play like the one you are doing, but so far I've been surprised by the gradual nature of the price movements and haven't developed a firm conviction to trade on yet.




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PostPosted: Fri Jul 29, 2011 9:48 pm 

Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 11:16 pm
Posts: 115

That seems like a good choice Soujourner considering this last week.




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PostPosted: Fri Jul 29, 2011 11:14 pm 

Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2010 1:52 am
Posts: 43

I am currently 10% in cash. I too was thinking about buying an index fund for short term if the market goes down another few percentage points, then sell back out to cash once it goes up again (which I think it will).

Any ideas on specific stocks that are underpriced now due to the debt-ceiling jitters?




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PostPosted: Fri Jul 29, 2011 11:23 pm 
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Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
Posts: 4583
Location: Chicago, IL

@sree - Mortgage REITs took a panic hit today and they're still low. They triggered my stop losses (and what I'm guessing to be a lot of other people's stop losses one after another all the way down) and then recovered within the hour. ARGH! I managed to get them back near the selling price losing about 20 bucks in the process. This will be my first wash sale, yay (not!). So much for automatic stop losses. I figure in the future I'll use manual stop losses.




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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:02 am 

Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 9:58 pm
Posts: 427

I discuss every trade I make on my blog. I'm a net buyer of equities, so I have no sales recorded since the inception of my site.


My recent buys include TEF, COP and INTC:


http://www.dividendmantra.com/search/label/Recent%20Buy


My portfolio is listed here:


http://www.dividendmantra.com/p/portfolio.html


I usually run 5-10% cash, but am a little low after my COP purchase.


Cool idea for a thread though, I like it. I'll start cross-referencing my buys/trades here.




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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:57 am 

Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2010 6:03 am
Posts: 275

I bought TEF a few months ago as well, as I started shifting my taxable savings into dividends in preparation towards next springs 'retirement'. VKQ, INTC too. Most other funds.


Scariest thing about TEF is market perceptions w/r to europe, and the low institutional investment ratio.


All my "cash" is in IRA.


My good/bad is actually google which I finally bought some of (~1%) within the year. It promptly lost nearly 20% but is back net positive. No real fiscal justification except that this was my first venture into individual equities, and I (still) think they have such a solid hold over such a significant slice of the pie that they should fare well in the long run. (and P/E < 20 again at the time).




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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:05 am 

Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Posts: 2471
Location: Orygun

@jacob - yeah, NLY tripped my alarms, too. I went ahead and sold it just after the first morning bounce peaked. Not sure what conditions will cause me to repurchase.


I could be wrong, but I think the leveraged financial firms (BDCs, mREITs, & banks) will all be ratcheting downwards for the next couple of months. There's just too much fear for them not to keep sliding.


***

On the other hand, I think some of the traditional REITs are heading into bargain territory: OHI and GTY. GTY is riskier since there are tenant difficulties, but the yield is, IMHO, adequate for the risk.




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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:11 am 

Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Posts: 2471
Location: Orygun

@chilly - I keep looking at TEF, but find myself not pulling the trigger. They're not just in Spain/Portugal... I think they're in Brazil, too? They've been raising the dividend faster than earnings & revenue, so I'm not sure the dividend growth is sustainable for too much longer. And I'm not yet at a point where I want a stock only paying dividends semi-annually.


VKQ is looking a bit attractive again this week. Munis are not being hit particularly hard despite the Federal government uncertainties and VKQ is trading below NAV again even though NAV remains flat.




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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:27 am 
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Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2011 4:30 am
Posts: 763
Location: STL

Over the last week or two I moved pretty much all of my 401k out of a 100% stock fund mix and into PRPFX (The Permanent Portfolio mutual fund). I was hoping to create a P.P. myself with my 401k money through a mutual fund window option we have. The commonly used ETFs (VTI, TLT, SHY, and IAU) are not available through my 401k - only mutual funds. So I will have to investigate more. For now I think I will let my money sit in PRPFX. It is substantially less risky than the 100% equity elections I had before, but it might perform just as well or better.




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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2011 7:16 am 

Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2010 7:17 pm
Posts: 1308

Is PRPFX a good alternative to cash? The expense ratio is a bit scary. Right now I only have cash available in untaxable accounts, so I'd like to avoid dividends. Nevertheless, I'm happy with my last trade of intc a while ago.




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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2011 10:41 am 

Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 9:35 am
Posts: 81

@Chilly/DividendGuy,


As you bought TEF, would one of you happen to have an opinion about the Dutch telco KPN.AS? I've got a position in them for the high dividend yield, but I'm constantly worried about their low solvency (~15-16%) and slowly declining revenues. They're planning to increase the dividend in 2012 and 2013 though next to a share buyback program. Cash flow is still adequate for the dividend payout. Any thoughts would be appreciated.




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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:10 pm 

Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 5:49 pm
Posts: 220

I went with a position in NYB. It's been on my watch list since the beginning of the year. It dropped a bit after it's Q2 earnings came in lower. Then the market as a whole dropped all through the week. Always great to lose money right after a purchase eh? I'm ok with the company and it's a good way to test my psychological response to a drop in market value. I'm also looking at AFL and waiting to see what HGIC reports on their Q2 earnings next week.


Speaking of psychologcial responses here is a question for you. I know a lot of you are natural savers. I've mentioned in a few posts that I'm not. To the savers how much does it "hurt" to see a drop in the price of your holdings? I've only started my ERE fund in Dec of last year so I'm still learning, but I have a few holdings that have dropped. For me I don't see it as a loss till I sell and surprisingly it's not bothering me to see a drop in price. Now if I see a drop in dividend I will probably be singing a different tune...




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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2011 4:49 pm 
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Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2011 4:30 am
Posts: 763
Location: STL

@dragoncar - In short I would say no. Each of the investments within it have risk and theoretically the fund could have a big drop in value.


That said, I have been had some thoughts of putting money that I'm saving up for a house (currently in a M.M.) into PRPFX, because I consider it unlikely that it would have a big drop.




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PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2011 10:24 pm 

Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2010 4:00 pm
Posts: 40

Stop loss for NLY triggered for me as well. I was too busy Friday to repurchase so double uggh for me.


After this, I'm pretty much done with trailing stop losses (was leaning this ways anyways). I'm primarily invested in dividend stocks with a long-record of stability--so a stop loss doesn't make a lot of sense. The only time I'll probably use one is if I have a good run up with a non-dividend stock and I want to preserve my gains.




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PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2011 10:31 pm 
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Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2011 3:31 am
Posts: 876
Location: NYC

Out of curiosity, is there any recommended sites for tracking manual stop losses, etc? The company I invest with doesn't have too many features. I've been looking for something to log trades, names and target prices to keep an eye on, and so forth. Google Finance doesn't really have any features beyond a watchlist.


As for recent trades, I got a bit more into blue chip names (ABT, PEP) as I think they'll recover once (if?) the debt ceiling crisis passes. I also sold a short term trade on QQQ as it's not a position that's very rewarding from an income stream perspective. Also loaded up on 50 more shares of EHI, which seems to cycle. I can usually buy at 12.85 or so, it will cycle up to 13.40, and then return. Been doing that for a few months.




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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 1:39 am 

Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2010 2:08 am
Posts: 56

I just loaded up on WM after their earnings miss. Bought at 33, now it is at 31.50 or so. Might buy more. I bought once the dividend hit the 4% mark. I love their business and I know that even before the earnings miss they have been working to automate processes to save expenses operationally.


I wanted to add to my position in EXC, however it has been moving up, so I will stand pat for now.


Also, I noticed EMR has been going down. Might look into that one at some point and try to figure out if it is a good value or not.




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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 2:23 am 

Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 9:58 pm
Posts: 427

@OurLifeInc.


I've looked at WM sparsely. The yield is intriguing, but I'm wondering about their debt and their declining revenues/earnings. Seems to be a value play, as the business of garbage isn't going anywhere.


I generally like to see improving revenues and earnings, or flat at the very least. The declines are troublesome.




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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 2:39 am 

Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2010 2:08 am
Posts: 56

Yeah, currently earnings are depressed...but I think that is a function of manufacturing being depressed. WM, historically, has had a pretty large industrial client base, which in the last few years, hasn't been as strong. So, in my opinion, that will eventually be back to some extent. But the two segments of theirs that really intrigue me are recycling and landfills.


Recycling, I think, will be huge in the future as we must reuse more and more of our stuff as raw materials just will not be available. That will bode well for WM.


Landfills are the really attractive part of WMs business. That is because very few landfills are being built, so as time moves forward, WM will (should?) have pricing power, increasing revenues without any additional (in theory) costs.


With the 4% yield, I thought it was a good time for me to buy.




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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 2:50 am 

Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 9:58 pm
Posts: 427

@OurLifeInc.


Good points. I appreciate your insight. Always good to know what another investor thinks.


I agree with you on the landfill comment. Especially as smaller landfills lose their usable space. I think that will definitely help their pricing power.


I may look into it, especially after the recent sell-off. Thanks!




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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 2:59 am 

Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2010 2:08 am
Posts: 56

If it keeps going down, I think it is really attractive. I like the dividend in the 4% range, it hasn't been there in the last year or two I think. I have read another article that had the value in the low 40s. I haven't run the numbers in a few months, but last time I did I had them around 38 to 40.


No problem, I love the idea of this thread. Right now I get most of my investing ideas and analysis from some blogs (including yours, so thanks!!). It will be interesting to hear commentary from some other EREs ( and those striving for ERE, like me).




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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:58 pm 
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Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
Posts: 4583
Location: Chicago, IL

@dragoncar - No. PRPFX is not a substitute for cash---it has lost money in some years (about a handful). It's intended for people who don't want to or don't have enough money to run build their own (the expense ratio is nasty). With ETFs there are no minimum investment amounts (like there is with mutual funds), so it's pretty much only useful if you don't want to run it yourself.


On a related note, the PP has won me over and but this is partially for the reason that I have enough money to [almost] live on the yield of it. The yield is pretty low so you'd need almost 750 times your monthly expenses, much more than the usual 300-400. I bought $20k of GLD for my IRA a couple of weeks ago. I have pretty much vowed to stop buying stocks (yeah right, let's see how long that lasts :P :( ) until I reach a 25/25/25/25 allocation.




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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:16 pm 
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Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 6:00 pm
Posts: 1813
Location: Rockies

My PP allocation (rebalanced in March) is currently yielding 2.7% annually in interest and dividends... Mine is that high because I have decent cash options. In my retirement there is a cash option paying 3% and I still have a couple rewards checking accts paying decent rates.


My preference is also to hold some non-US currency (30% of the cash component) which pays higher interest... Days like today I'm happy to be a PP holder (SP500 -2.5%).




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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:20 pm 
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Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
Posts: 4583
Location: Chicago, IL

Does that cash option (money market fund?) have a name?




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PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:34 pm 
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Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 6:00 pm
Posts: 1813
Location: Rockies

Key Guaranteed Portfolio Fund: current yield 2.90%. Unfortunately, I think it's only for Great-West retirement acct holders...


Yield keeps coming down, however. Much like rewards checking accts, which seem to be on the path to extinction. :(




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