What's the safest place to live in a socioeconomically stratified city?

[TopHatFox]

On my inter city bus ride home yesterday, I was wondering what it's like to choose a place to live in the city.

Say you just got a job in a big city or town. Where would you choose to live? Obviously location (job), location (food), cost (ERE) matters, but considering those criteria being met, what tends to be the safest areas to live in? Is it in a small room in the "nice" part of town, where you might risk people breaking in to your house stealing stuff, or is it in the poor part of town where rent might be cheap but crime rates are likely up? Or maybe somewhere in between?

In part I ask because my brother leased a small room in a nice part of town and had his house broken into & laptop stolen, so maybe an intermediary living setting might have avoided the theft.

[C40]

I've lived in a lot of different cities and I currently live in St Louis - a city with a full range of uhh, socioeconomics. I think it's generally true that there are cheap places in a city that are also very poor choices to live in (high crime and other reasons) and there are also cheap places in cities that are perfectly good.

It depends on so many local things both regional and very local. It can depend on the whole city, which part of the city, which specific neighborhood, and even which block or building. In St. Louis, for example, there are HUGE differences in crime rates just blocks away. Burglaries are not uncommon just 2-3 blocks down on my street, but they don't seem to happen at all on my block (I got a bit lucky here)

If I tried to reduce this to only a few factors that probable apply everywhere, the things to try to absolutely stay away from are:
- If the schools there area really bad (poor education and a lot of violence)
- If employment opportunities for uneducated people are very poor (like, only shit retail jobs such as McDonalds)
- If there is a lot of hard drug use in the area (meth or crack)

I think places with poor people but without the above criteria are generally much safer.

If you've avoided those things, then these are good:
- Stable population (people that live in the same house for a long time)
- Higher rates of home ownership
- Higher employment rates

In some areas (this is definitely true in St Louis) it is unfortunately true that racial segregation has ended up very strongly correlated with the above factors and with how "safe" a place is to live. In this case, checking demographics can be a quick way to get an idea of the lay of the land. I don't know how many cities this is true for but I hope it's not a lot.

[BRUTE]

it can depend on what type of safety zalo desires. brute owns very few and inexpensive physical items with the exception of a laptop. if all brute's physical possessions were stolen, he would lose ~$1500-2000, and could buy most of it back over the next few days. therefore brute worries very little about theft.

on the other hand, brute does not like to be stabbed and shot. so brute tries to stay away from those types of incidents. then again, even in the most dangerous places brute has lived, he has never been held up with a knife or gun.

[GandK]

Strongest predictor of safety that I know of: good schools. I would look at apartments/condos/the crappiest houses in the top ranked school districts in the areas. High income parents (who also tend to congregate near good schools) will just not put up with crime; they will spend whatever it takes to keep the ducklings safe. Get close enough to them and you'll reap the benefits.

Any time you buy a home instead of rent, you'll want to keep an eye on the property taxes.

[BPA]

I used to live in an apartment complex I later found out the police called the Zoo. Looking back, even though some of my neighbours were drug dealers, they didn't want the police showing up, so they were very friendly and generally made sure that things were seemly and not out of the ordinary.

There was a fire in the building one night when some druggies overturned the candle they were using to liquify whatever drug they were using in the laundry room, so that wasn't good.

I didn't own a lot of cool stuff. An original xbox and 27 inch tube tv and a bottom of the line desktop computer were about it as far as valuables went.

Even now, in the nicer neighbourhood I live in, I've never been broken into. I think everyone knows we have the least amount of material goods of anyone in the neighbourhood.

I should say that I live in Canada and shootings are somewhat less of a concern than in the US.

[Dragline]

I would live as close to work as reasonably possible and adjust my behavior depending on the area, including purchasing renters insurance if it made sense.

I might think differently from a safety perspective if I was not a large man, though.

[jacob]

Strongest predictor of safety that I know of: good schools.

The school rankings where I live are about 2/10 or 3/10, so pretty bad (my area is 80%+ Hispanic and many are recent immigrants(*)). However, I dare say that 2/3 of all houses have a Neighbourhood Watch sign in their windows stating that they will call the police. And from talking to the neighbours, they will! This area falls under the "most people have lived here for 20+ years" even if they aren't exactly engineers or VP's of the bond trading group.

(*) So school performance is bad but family values and the opportunity to make friendly relations and barter is supremely high!

Houses are well-maintained on the outside (most of the code seems to deal with how things look) and there are real shops, both local and national (Walgreens and banks); not just the trifecta of liquor stores, check cashing and "churches"---I suppose sins, the ability to pay for sins, and a way to compensate for sins.

Also, people know each other. Unfortunately, I know of no way to learn off the existence or strength of any social network before moving in.

For the OP, if safety is the only concern, I have mostly used Trulia's crime heat maps. I avoided anything that shows more than 10% yellow but I also look for the kind of criminal activity: Is it gunshots or store thefts?

PS: It's my not-very-informed impression that crooks mainly steal from people living very close to them and more importantly people they know or know off (based on a sample size of TWO, so pinch of salt here). This is how you can be quite "safe" on one side of the street for a given block while being compromised just across the street. In that regard, the areas to avoid are the areas that have a big concentration of convicts, etc. People who circulate between prison and not-prison.

[Ego]

In part I ask because my brother leased a small room in a nice part of town and had his house broken into & laptop stolen, so maybe an intermediary living setting might have avoided the theft.

How did they break in?

What can you do to avoid the common problems?

-Locks: The landlord may not change them between tenants or may rotate them around the building. Rekey the lock yourself or add a second lock. Don't hide a key.
-Windows: Make sure they can be secured.
-Neighborhood/neighbors: Visit in the evening as neighborhoods can look very different at night than at 10am.
-Owner/manager: Ask them about security before renting. Have there been any problems recently? Do they live on property?

A cheaper place in a nice neighborhood is usually an insecure dump.
A nicer place in a cheap neighborhood is usually secure and well maintained.

[BRUTE]

on the subject of neighborhood and safety, brute recommends reading "The Death and Life of Great American Cities" by jane jacobs.

[SimpleLife]

Strongest predictor of safety that I know of: good schools. I would look at apartments/condos/the crappiest houses in the top ranked school districts in the areas. High income parents (who also tend to congregate near good schools) will just not put up with crime; they will spend whatever it takes to keep the ducklings safe. Get close enough to them and you'll reap the benefits.

Any time you buy a home instead of rent, you'll want to keep an eye on the property taxes.

Why does renting make a difference? Do you think landlords eat the rising taxes on rental properties out of their own pocket or pass that cost along to tenants? I and every other landlord I know, pass the rising costs to tenants, so just because you are renting doesn't mean somehow you aren't going to be affected by rising property taxes/high property taxes. It's not like you are magically immune from rising costs of living because you rent.

Also, I disagree with your assertion that good schools are the strongest predictor of safety. Statistical analysis of crime in the area is the strongest predictor of safety. You can literally tell what area is safer by looking at a crime map of the area and seeing what crimes are reported by block. That is a more logical way to assess and predict safety than good schools alone. If I was pressed for time, I'd look for an area with good schools because it is more likely to be safe than unsafe, however; that is not by any means the strongest predictor of safety.

[GandK]

Any time you buy a home instead of rent, you'll want to keep an eye on the property taxes.

Why does renting make a difference? Do you think landlords eat the rising taxes on rental properties out of their own pocket or pass that cost along to tenants? I and every other landlord I know, pass the rising costs to tenants, so just because you are renting doesn't mean somehow you aren't going to be affected by rising property taxes/high property taxes. It's not like you are magically immune from rising costs of living because you rent.

You're right, they pass it on. But the price of rent is the full price. Taxes are a separate figure/calculation when you're looking at home ownership, and a lot of young home buyers look only at the sticker price of a house and don't think about the annual taxes. I didn't take that into consideration in my own first home purchase, and some of the young people we've counseled financially through our church have done the same. It caused them trouble down the line. Hence the heads up.

Also, I disagree with your assertion that good schools are the strongest predictor of safety.

What I said was, that's the strongest predictor I know of. It's what I was advised by my elders and it's what I've gone by, and that has served me and my family extremely well.

I expect it's best for Zalo to get a wide range of opinions in any case.

[Toska2]

I would say away from bad schools would be better than towards good schools when going by that predictor. The good can drive kids to school of choice. The bad schools are at best a bunch of bored kids. Idle hands makes the Devil's work. At worst, everything that their parents are and more.

I would go with closest to work and food. The less you're alone and wandering the better. I'm putting the assumption nonviolent better than violent crimes.

[SimpleLife]

Any time you buy a home instead of rent, you'll want to keep an eye on the property taxes.

Why does renting make a difference? Do you think landlords eat the rising taxes on rental properties out of their own pocket or pass that cost along to tenants? I and every other landlord I know, pass the rising costs to tenants, so just because you are renting doesn't mean somehow you aren't going to be affected by rising property taxes/high property taxes. It's not like you are magically immune from rising costs of living because you rent.

You're right, they pass it on. But the price of rent is the full price. Taxes are a separate figure/calculation when you're looking at home ownership, and a lot of young home buyers look only at the sticker price of a house and don't think about the annual taxes. I didn't take that into consideration in my own first home purchase, and some of the young people we've counseled financially through our church have done the same. It caused them trouble down the line. Hence the heads up.

Also, I disagree with your assertion that good schools are the strongest predictor of safety.

What I said was, that's the strongest predictor I know of. It's what I was advised by my elders and it's what I've gone by, and that has served me and my family extremely well.

I expect it's best for Zalo to get a wide range of opinions in any case.

You have never heard of crime statistics? They show them online by neighborhood. I use Trulias heat map, as was already mentioned.

Lol at the explanation about the taxes. One should keep an eye on taxes whether buying OR renting. Same with insurance. Most online calculators factor taxes in. There is usually either a percentage based field or dollar amount field that you can modify to account for it.

In any case, back to the OP. Burglars are reportedly (according to studies) 80% less likely to target you if you have an alarm system. Add cameras and a dog, lot's of lighting and secure frames/doors/locks and a safe. I can't see the additional items beyond an alarm system NOT reducing your risks.

I've noticed from cursory observation of heat maps in my area, that the more affluent areas are more likely targets of property crime, while the less affluent areas are more heavy with drugs, violence but with some property crime mixed in, especially cars. But no area, house or person is immune. Anyone can be affected.

[BPA]

I would say away from bad schools would be better than towards good schools when going by that predictor. The good can drive kids to school of choice. The bad schools are at best a bunch of bored kids. Idle hands makes the Devil's work. At worst, everything that their parents are and more.

I would go with closest to work and food. The less you're alone and wandering the better. I'm putting the assumption nonviolent better than violent crimes.

I'm a former high school teacher of 20 years and I am Canadian, so please bear in mind my bias, but "bad schools" according to standardized testing do not necessarily mean a bad area. There are any number of reasons why kids might not fare well at standardized testing. Having English as a second (or third) language puts people at a disadvantage. This does not mean that they are not intelligent or hard working or have some sort of character flaw. I wonder if this is why Jacob's nice neighbourhood has lower test scores. Another prime predictor of low test scores is poverty (which to some people makes a bad neighbourhood, but not necessarily for everyone). And then, if an area has a higher number of students with learning disabilities (not their fault, they are intelligent but access and process information differently) or autism (often similar to LD), or attention deficit issues, then those things can also affect test scores.

[BlueNote]

Don't keep really portable high value/low weight items in your home if you can at all help it.( Gold, jewelry, gems, cash etc.)

The two biggest break ins I have seen in the apartment buildings I lived at were because in one case the guy wore gold approaching a Mr T level and in the second case it was just an old person who kept cash, jewelry etc. in the home and someone found out. The gold guy was really pissed off, super nice guy too, but he might as well have been wearing a rob me sign walking around downtown Toronto like that. ERE people probably aren't big on ostentatious displays of wealth, they seem to be bigger on quiet freedom seeking so you probably have that going for you.

You'll probably never totally eliminate the threat of a random break in but having good non-transient neighbours probably helps a lot.