Bad Economic Signs

dpmorel · Post by **dpmorel** » Sun Sep 05, 2010 4:22 pm

If you are close to the "real economy" - i.e. your business getting paid, you usual have lots of interesting indicators/anecdotes to warn you about economic activity.
One example was credit card failed authorizations at Peek, they definitely led the economy by a month or two.
Here's another one for you - my friends who are contract developers or run their own dev shops... they are having a very hard time collecting the past 2-3 months and/or are getting run to 90days+. I know several folks who have gotten shafted out of some very real amounts of money ($20k+).

Ralphy · Post by **Ralphy** » Sun Sep 05, 2010 5:28 pm

This might not be quite on the level you're thinking of, but a couple things I notice in our neck of the woods -
I see a lot more people looking for pop/beer cans in the dumpsters by the apartments I work at than I ever used to.
Even though our university's enrollment is at or near record levels, I don't see quite as many people out partying downtown when I'm delivering on the weekends.

HSpencer · Post by **HSpencer** » Sun Sep 05, 2010 6:42 pm

I have been thinking a lot about this as well. What bothers me is the fact it seems so quiet around here compared to a few months ago. Sort of like everyone is on vacation or sick at home.

Few customers in many businesses. Some long time married good friends having marital spats, where there should be none. The finances I am sure at the bottom of it.

Sensors I follow show something for October. A spike in the I-ching on 10/2010. Of course that could be a lot of hooey.

Also the Web-bots show October chatter, but I pay little mind to web bots or I-ching either. Some folks do.

Q · Post by Q » Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:19 am

Sometimes I feel like we are immune here in the bay to any bad economy because the roads are still packed, the Starbucks are packed, the mall is packed, Bevmo runs out of stuff, the roads are packed and the roads are packed.
I only "hear" about it from other contractors whose work is based solely on construction, vs. my job which is mandated by government and insurance, so very very safe (and not outsource-able either)

Post by **jacob** » Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:37 am

We can gauge the construction business by the amount of contractors (truck+fifth wheels) vs retirees (class A and C RVs) in the park. The contractors started leaving last year. There are still several empty spots and these are filled with retirees who mostly just stay a short while. Usually the park is filled with longterm residents but currently it seems to take what it can get.

Robert Muir · Post by **Robert Muir** » Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:29 pm

The cover of last week's Time was "The Case Against Home Ownership".

Robert Muir · Post by **Robert Muir** » Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:29 pm

Ignore duplicate

Post by **jacob** » Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:32 pm

@Robert Muir - This marks the official bottom of the housing market

Robert Muir · Post by **Robert Muir** » Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:17 am

NYT article: Housing Woes Bring a New Cry: Let the Market Fall

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/06/busin ... ef=economy
They mention part of the shadow inventory, the foreclosed houses that aren't on the market yet, but they don't bring up the houses that people have stopped paying on but haven't been foreclosed because the bank can't afford the hit to their books. These are in what I call the sheltered shadow inventory.
This may be just more proof that the mainstream has jumped on board the housing market is doomed mindset, indicating that the housing market has bottomed. But I think this sheltered shadow inventory is going to be sinking more banks and as the foreclosures eventually get thrown onto the market, prices will continue dropping.
My home has dropped well over 30% and this isn't even a bad economic area.

Post by **jacob** » Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:22 am

I'm waiting for the "Volcker-event", that is, Bernanke resigns and is replaced with someone who bumps rates to 10%+ to clear out all the bad investments.

Q · Post by Q » Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:31 am

I am currently pricing houses in Las Vegas myself. I think it will be where I move to eventually, but at the very least could make money on several ways, if no family moves there.
I wish housing here would dip into an acceptable range and not require HOA

Matthew · Post by **Matthew** » Wed Sep 08, 2010 1:16 am

I agree with Robert. I also think future energy conservation could pose a problem/solution? in the next decade. However, I would not be surprised to see this NOT immediately affecting the stock market as greatly as it has in the past. A lot of major corporations may have already corrected growth to future forcast and demand. This might just mean more wealth in fewer hands.
One thing is sure. All new government buildings (courthouses, jails, etc.) seem to be built grade A just like the new health industry hospitals. It seems they are the new "Cathedrals" of the day:)

Jon · Post by **Jon** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 6:13 am

I hope that as all of the ambitious building projects started 5-10 years ago wrap up we'll stop seeing superfluous public buildings like Dude mentioned. Like the half billion dollar school in California. I don't know how something like this can be extrapolated to give insight into nations economic health though, it seems like a anomaly especially now.

Post by **jacob** » Thu Sep 09, 2010 6:23 am

I doubt there'll be a wrapup. Government tends to grow unlimited which means a concentration of political power, and capitalism tends to concentrate money in the hands of the few. If there's one thing that powerful people like, it's building their legacy, literally.
Not being built of stone, I wonder how long these modern monuments are going to stand though. Any experts?

Matthew · Post by **Matthew** » Sat Sep 11, 2010 11:18 pm

A lot of the buildings I was refering to are still built with stone. I am no expert, but it appears buildings last as long as they are maintained. I don't imagine the foam board houses of today going much longer than 50 years without some major overhaul.