ERE and Electrification

[sky]

I wrote the following to guide my personal strategy for home electrification. I would appreciate any comments or ideas on this subject.

In my case, because I already try to reduce use of vehicles and limit utility costs, there is not a lot of savings to be found in electrification. But things may change and I want to continue to review whether steps toward electrification are worthwhile.

Electrification and ERE

Electrification is moving away from fossil fuels to electric powered devices, with the eventual goal of powering all devices with electricity generated from solar and stored in batteries. Electrification promises to decrease the cost of living, but only if the correct upfront investments are made.

Devices that would eliminate fossil fuels by converting to electric power:

Electric vehicle
Heat pump (home heating and cooling)
Electric hot water heater
Electric stove
Electric dryer (laundry)
Electric lawn care devices
Home solar
Home battery/inverter system

When considering new purchase of each of these devices, compare the cost of a new fossil fuel powered device over the life of the device.

When replacing an existing fossil fuel device, compare the lifetime cost of changing to an electric item when a replacement fossil fuel device is required. When an existing fossil fuel device is still functioning, I would compare the cost of the estimated remaining life of the fossil fuel device to a similar time frame of the electric device.

Some of the key variables are the future cost of fossil fuel and future cost of electric energy from the grid. These are unknowns that can only be estimated.

The home solar/battery/inverter system likely changes the results of cost comparison of the other electric devices due to a lower, predictable lifetime cost of electricity. This means that a complete conversion to electric devices is likely more advantageous than a piecemeal stepped transition.

Rather than refitting an existing home with electric devices and power generation, it may be more cost effective to build a new house.

Rather than recreating an existing house/lifestyle using fossil fuels, it may be advantageous to try to create a newer, more efficient lifestyle and structure using design such as superinsulation and solar gain appropriate to the climate. A smaller home might improve efficiency over an existing home which is larger than one's needs. An example of a lifestyle change would be to use clothesline drying rather than machine drying. Another lifestyle change would be to locate to an area where bicycle and walking transportation can be used for most trips instead of vehicle transportation.

One must consider one's own estimated lifespan when making a long term investment.

There are other benefits to electrification that may give preference to electrification, such as improvement to climate and home air quality by eliminating fossil fuel devices.

There are transition strategies that may be an improvement over the existing condition in individual homes. Balcony power, energy conservation measures, additional insulation and weatherstripping, energy conserving devices and personal behavior (wearing warmer clothes and lowering the thermostat, for example).

From a frugal, conserver perspective, it is likely that a newly constructed house would be the most cost effective solution to convert to electric. The house could be designed to be efficient and constructed to take advantage of rooftop solar electric power generation and battery power storage. If cost effective, the house could be designed to be off-grid and not connected to outside utilities. The house would be sized to meet the needs of the user and would be constructed in a manner to withstand the climate of the location. The house could be financed up front, with all costs included to provide energy for the long term at no additional cost other than repair, maintenance and replacement. In this scenario, housing and transportation costs would be reduced to property tax, insurance, repair, maintenance, replacement and debt service. The monthly cost of utilities would be eliminated or reduced to those services still connected (water?, sewer?).

The cost of electrification could be compared to an investment. An investment equal to the cost of electrification provides an annual return. Compare that return to the annual cost savings of electrification. If electrification is financed, add the annual cost of the loan to the cost of electrification.

It is likely that those benefitting most from electrification will be those using the most energy. People who live a conserver lifestyle may not find the transition financially viable until costs of electrification drop, or the cost of fossil fuels increase.

[sky]

The investment comparison is not a good one, after the service life of the devices, the value of the devices will be scrap value, while an investment such as a bond would have a market value after the service life period.

[blink2ce]

I think it is usually more affordable and simpler to just reduce energy usage instead of attempting to electrify a utility that is set up for fossil fuels. I suppose if someone was handy and fuel costs were quite expensive in their area, they could put in a heat pump and save a lot of money. It just depends on the situation.

[Jean]

My inlaws finished this process last year with the impressive diy instalation of a heat pump.
They have no ev, no dryer, and no lawn mower, as those devices are pretty useless.

[loutfard]

As far as general electrification recommendations go, focusing on reducing energy usage probably is the only universally good ERE recommendation in line with almost every ERE web of goals.

Even projected total cost of ownership reductions enabled by electrification are tricky. They require the ability to plan ahead.

Solar panels seem to be another almost universal recommendation. They've become so incredibly cheap that it's hard not reduce expenses producing your own solar electricity. Even when renting, large parts of Europe now allow these mobile sets that you can just put on a balcony and plug into an electric outlet.

[7Wannabe5]

Electricity is high quality energy. Where it really shines (pun intended) is when applied to information needs. For example, powering the lightbulb that allows you to read in your tent during a thunderstorm or safely skin a rabbit in your kitchen after dark. In a cold climate, reducing size of shelter, considering passive solar gain (long side of shelter faced to the south, etc.), and appropriate insulation (closed building syndrome is a thing too) would be some first steps. The next step would be to convert as many currently non-existent (couch potato) or useless (running on treadmill to nowhere) physical activities to replacement or production of energy with your human physiology at the rate of at least 2 hours/day moderate exercise. Hooking up your stationary bike to battery storage system would be about the least efficient way to do this, but might serve at the margin. Walking for transportation instead of driving your car (even if EV) would likely be the most efficient way to accomplish this step, with vegetable gardening maybe being a close second. If expense reduction is to be maximized over hassle and/or completely avoiding direct CO2 production*, then maintaining a wood lot (and/or scavenging for wood) and purchasing or constructing a modern-design efficient wood-burning stove would likely be most efficient. My oldest-ever BF only had one arm, and he was still chopping wood for his wood-burner at age 75, and his upper-body musculature was quite impressive.

However, I should note that my above recommendations are based on the inclusion of at least one human with human requirements for food, warmth, information intake, and physiological activity in the systems model. Otherwise, just powering robots with solar panels is the best way to maximize production/acre over energy usage, because feeding human workers, even just on a diet of potatoes, corn, and/or cane/beet sugar, is relatively inefficient.

*Obviously, there is indirect CO2 emissions in production and depreciation of solar panels and electrical devices and appliances, and the trees maintained in a wood lot will also process CO2 at a somewhat higher rate than if allowed to grow to "climax" and orchard production of high quality foodstuffs convertible by humans into muscular power may also be integrated into design.

[Saltation]

I think most of this comes down to where you live. We live deep in the midwest and electrification of the entire house seems very farfetched in our circumstance. We had a furnace replaced last year and purchased the 96% efficient natural gas model. A heat pump that would have fully electrified our heating but would have cost thousands of dollars more initially. After the initial period the operation costs would be lower in mild conditions but when they hit the extremes (December-March) that is when the heat pump is least efficient and that is for 1/3 of the year. It works out that when demand peaks for the resource the efficiency of the heat pump units are at their lowest efficiency. Another 1/3 of the year total demand from a heating and cooling perspective is very low because temperatures are in 60-80F during the day and 40-60F at night. In the remaining period of the year temperatures fluctuate so much that you might only run AC 15 days our of the year. Looking at the Utility Model Heating Degree Database our area has 7963 heating degree days and 463 cooling degree days. Our solution is to utilize the public utility and supplement with wood for space heating. I don't purchase wood as I can harvest it from the woods or you can go to your local yard waste and cut up wood and store for one year before usage. If I'm in a pinch I can cut pallets into sections and use that for space heating.

Electric vehicles on their face appear to be great from an efficiency standpoint and they are. From a DIY and cost perspective not so much. Working in the automotive industry you see first hand the absolute disgust from technicians trying to work on the vehicles. When not working as designed they can be down for days at a time with failing software updates, unidentified problems or actuator/motor/sensor problems that are very expensive to fix and diagnose. If (and this is the big if) you do not have a battery problem you are probably fine but most likely from a financial perspective not coming out ahead. The vehicles cost more up front for an equivalent, they go through tires more quickly and newer gasoline vehicles have many fewer scheduled maintenance interval periods. Examples of reductions would be synthetic oil changes that go upwards of 10000 miles, transmissions that never need fluid servicing by design, coolant services that have intervals of 10 years etc. All of the major maintenance issues on your standard vehicles are basically solved problems for high users and for low users there are only a few based timed service intervals. Even when this is all considered what is the resale value of a vehicle after 15 years when the battery is 50% degraded and the technology vastly obsolete? Currently the industry is having trouble even making a single common connector for home usage resulting in consumer confusion. If they can bring down the cost further and design subcompact/compact affordable EV's (Chevy Bolt/Nissan Leaf) and do it with a higher long-term resale value I think this tide will turn.

Electrification of smaller, lower energy impact devices has made rapid improvement and this is where industries are changing quickly. If you have a smaller yard (<.5 acres) then switching to electric lawnmowers, string trimmers etc. is probably worthwhile. When deciding on a generator for our off-grid building we decided on a battery portable power station and 20lb propane cylinder combo. In this circumstance solar panels can easily charge the small battery system and the maintenance costs are zero unless the generator or panels fail. Heat is wood and cooking is propane. Water is from river. Bathroom is an outhouse. The usage rate is so low that all of the upfront costs go away because scaling of the system is not required resulting in very low maintenance and smaller initial build.

From an ERE perspective it would make sense in the basic formula that if you can outwardly live like the average person but use 75% fewer resources (live 300-400% more efficiently) then maybe full electrification is worth it. Your usage patterns become so low that all the current society level scaling efficiencies no longer need apply.

[loutfard]

I think most of this comes down to where you live. We live deep in the midwest and electrification of the entire house seems very farfetched in our circumstance.

It's not the technology. If it works well for heating in Scandinavia, it will certainly work well in the lower US states. Look at models like Panasonic's CU-3Z75ABEC for example. It makes less economic sense in the US because energy prices and insulation standards are substantially lower, and home sizes susbstantially larger.

Electric vehicles on their face appear to be great from an efficiency standpoint and they are. From a DIY and cost perspective not so much. ... If they can bring down the cost further and design subcompact/compact affordable EV's (Chevy Bolt/Nissan Leaf) and do it with a higher long-term resale value I think this tide will turn.

The main reason I'm not sure of getting an EV for use at our summer house is not maintenance or cost effectiveness. A cheap second hand EV would shine on these criteria. In our case, geopolitics is suggesting range demands. "Can it get you to Poland on a single charge?" is an actual question actual people ask.

Electrification of smaller, lower energy impact devices has made rapid improvement and this is where industries are changing quickly. If you have a smaller yard (<.5 acres) then switching to electric lawnmowers, string trimmers etc. is probably worthwhile.

A 2000 m² (.5 acres) garden would be the largest by far around where I live in winter, but small where I live in summer I find the electrification in gardening tools fascinating, but also rather expensive. There's no second hand market to speak of around where I live in summer yet, so holding off for now.

From an ERE perspective it would make sense in the basic formula that if you can outwardly live like the average person but use 75% fewer resources (live 300-400% more efficiently) then maybe full electrification is worth it. Your usage patterns become so low that all the current society level scaling efficiencies no longer need apply.

This indeed.

[Saltation]

It's not the technology. If it works well for heating in Scandinavia, it will certainly work well in the lower US states. Look at models like Panasonic's CU-3Z75ABEC for example. It makes less economic sense in the US because energy prices and insulation standards are substantially lower, and home sizes susbstantially larger.

Definitely agree it is not a technology problem, but the basic premise that when needed most the units are least efficient still applies. I looked at the model you presented and the manufacturers manual indicates a substantial drop in in efficiency at 5F. I can only imagine how poor the performance is to combat -20F or 0F for days at a time.

We would have purchased a outdoor heat pump for our home if the economics were better; it just so happens that they probably won't be for quite a long while. It's a hard sell here where you can buy a natural gas furnace for thousands of dollars less and when needed most know the unit is still running nearly at peak efficiency. Not to mention the very costly potential repair/refrigerants to run these pumps. To add to the already initial bad economics is the higher service charges when repairs are needed because the tradesman needs to be certified in additional refrigerants reducing the number of competitors in the market.

The main reason I'm not sure of getting an EV for use at our summer house is not maintenance or cost effectiveness. A cheap second hand EV would shine on these criteria. In our case, geopolitics is suggesting range demands. "Can it get you to Poland on a single charge?" is an actual question actual people ask.

Can you explain a little further? Maintenance on an EV is likely to be greater in the used market than a new market. Battery degradation is both increased by usage and time and often the main battery is a swapped item instead of a repaired item (high repair cost). Buying used would present both factors as present and the range would be diminished. The diminished range in inclement weather is one of the most common complaints of EV owners.

This aside, I think EV's could be a great option for low users. The resale, however, might be so low that your operation costs both over time and per mile will be high. Once the EV market has matured costs will drop or be very competitive resulting in switch overs. Market research currently indicates that at 300+miles on a single charge basically eliminates range anxiety.

Infrastructure is another obstacle to EV. If charging at home there is the initial installation costs (unless you DIY which I would) and it's not as simple as an outlet and running wire. Many homes in the states run <100 amp main breaker panels and if you were charging an EV while running your stove and heat pump simultaneously the housing infrastructure is nearly at capacity.

A 2000 m² (.5 acres) garden would be the largest by far around where I live in winter, but small where I live in summer I find the electrification in gardening tools fascinating, but also rather expensive. There's no second hand market to speak of around where I live in summer yet, so holding off for now.

Where we reside .5 acre lots are very common (unfortunately). Nearly all homes are built on large plots like this and mega houses (2500 sq. ft.) are part of the bylaws. Frankly, I enjoy cutting a lawn about as much as the other person on these forums. I'd rather be tending a garden twice the size of ours instead of putting the time into mowing.

[theanimal]

In our offgrid lifestyle, we have found that the best approach on this topic is in reducing our needs for electricity. To power a conventional home with standard electrical appliances would require a tremendous amount of solar panels, batteries, inverter and various components. For example, we've tried an induction stove but it simply requires too much power to be feasible off-grid without a large setup. The same is true for heat. Electrical heat is very inefficient, so we opt for wood instead.

As others have mentioned, electrical appliances are often much more difficult to maintain and repair than their conventional counterparts. A basic example is a car, or even a simpler engine like a chainsaw. On their own, they are relatively straightforward, with extremely efficient engines and minimal parts. Once computers and electrical compents are added to the mix, attempts to understand and repair them become an exercise in frustration. Electrical appliances and devices often have much higher amount of rare minerals and toxic materials, making them difficult to reuse, recycle, or dispose of.

Personally, I don't consider fossil fuels inherently bad on their own. They are very useful and much more energy dense than their alternative counterparts. I view it as just another input to avoid abusing a la "Riot for Austerity".

[loutfard]

Definitely agree it is not a technology problem, but the basic premise that when needed most the units are least efficient still applies.

Definitely. Not too worried though because consistent -25 Celsius is rather rare in this part of the Baltics. Also, less efficient, but it still works: COP 2.47 at -15 Celsius, COP 1.85 at -25 Celsius. 4.8 kW should be enough for our heating needs, and if not, there's still 5.4 kW of infrared panels. COP 1, but who cares, for those rare moments they have to be used...

We would have purchased a outdoor heat pump for our home if the economics were better; it just so happens that they probably won't be for quite a long while. It's a hard sell here where you can buy a natural gas furnace for thousands of dollars less and when needed most know the unit is still running nearly at peak efficiency.

This heat pump should cost us ~5000€ including 21% VAT including three interior units and installation. The economics work for us because:
- Our place is super insulated.
- Just firewood is not an option (short term rental, pipe freezing risk, distance, ...)
- Pellets are ~0.045€/kWh.
- Grid electricity is ~0.17€/kWh.
- Own solar is ~0.04€/kWh.
- We already own a pile of infrared panels.
- We have a 3x25A electric grid uplink.

the higher service charges when repairs are needed because the tradesman needs to be certified in additional refrigerants reducing the number of competitors in the market.

The three Baltic republics formerly occupied by the USSR still have fairly cheap labour.

Can you explain a little further?

My wife wants to be able to start driving the moment the Russians touch one mm² of Baltic territory and not stop until we are in Poland.

Maintenance on an EV is likely to be greater in the used market than a new market. Battery degradation is both increased by usage and time and often the main battery is a swapped item instead of a repaired item (high repair cost). Buying used would present both factors as present and the range would be diminished. The diminished range in inclement weather is one of the most common complaints of EV owners.

In very broad strikes, you're probably right. Except government encouragement away from oil drinkers and towards EV's makes them more interesting.

Plus, on an individual level, I find the tech interesting and might want to investigate. I feel relatively confident on the electronics side. An acquaintance has the high voltage electrics knowledge to help me play with that part safely. I would pick a simple old model for which at least some successful conversions to cheap generic CATL batteries have been achieved.

Infrastructure is another obstacle to EV. If charging at home there is the initial installation costs (unless you DIY which I would) and it's not as simple as an outlet and running wire. Many homes in the states run <100 amp main breaker panels and if you were charging an EV while running your stove and heat pump simultaneously the housing infrastructure is nearly at capacity.

3x25A here...

Where we reside .5 acre lots are very common (unfortunately). Nearly all homes are built on large plots like this and mega houses (2500 sq. ft.) are part of the bylaws.

You have my sympathy.

[loutfard]

As others have mentioned, electrical appliances are often much more difficult to maintain and repair than their conventional counterparts.

This. Technological independence would be our main reason to go for wood.

We manoeuvred ourselves into a bit of a corner when it comes to our Baltic house. We should have gone with a smaller house closer to local building tradition. Wood heating would have been an option then. It isn't really now. Oh well, as the old saying goes: "Had my aunt had ..., she would have been my uncle."

Our choice of a heat pump for heating has to be seen in the light of trying to integrate a pre-ERE project into our more ERE lifestyles as best as we can. Selling is not an option, as in no buyers. We try to keep things as light and simple as we can, while making sure the property is safe, generates some cash flow, is there for us to stay in summer, etcetera.

[Jean]

@loutfard
I don't really see why it isn't an option to add a wood stove in your house, but assuming it is, I think it would be a good idea to build a sauna, that is heated with a wood stove.
If for any reason, you are at your baltic house when it's very cold and have no electricity for your heat pump, a sauna is a small room that can be kept warm with very little wood and you can cook on the stove.
A sauna is really nice. It also allows you to get clean without hot water.
And with the swiss price, a sauna can be built for about 5000.- in materials if you take good materials. This can of course be reduced by order of magnitude.
I think for what it provides, it is quite a cheap investment.

[NewBlood]

Electric dryer (laundry)

Here in home country (western Europe), nobody I know owns a dryer. everybody hang dries, indoors in the winter, outdoors in the summer.
In Hawaii, everybody I knew owned and used a dryer.

[Stasher]

Our entire house is electric and we do not have a wood stove and do not have natural gas hooked up (very proud of being fossil fuel free)

Our outdoor external heat pump with ducted forced air unit works very good for being 18 years old but we do look forward to replacing it when the time comes. Technology has moved leaps and bounds beyond what our current unit is capable.

Our PNW Canadian winters on the coast aren't the worst so that does help with our heating, -5c (20F) is usually a very cold winter day for us.

We have the usual electric appliances....HW Tank, Fridge, Stove, Washer, Dryer

Our hydro electric based power is so affordable in BC and we are efficient with our usage (heat set at 17'c, hang dry most clothes, keep HW Tank set lower temp) that at this point there still is no sense for us to add solar and energy storage. There are amazing federal and provincial grants as well as interest free government loans currently to do so. An ERE mindset though tells me that as there is no need to upgrade, it would be an aesthetic or signalling move rather than practical in our present situation.

[sky]

That is a nice situation to be in.

After some consideration, my plan for electrification is to put frugality first, and use existing devices in my home as long as they are reliable.

When an appliance fails, I will replace it with preference for electric, if a cost comparison is reasonable.

I will periodically check to see if new technology would provide a cost savings over our existing appliances.

I will look for low hanging fruit that might create some savings, such as balcony power, self-installed mini-split heat pump, or a used electric vehicle, but will spreadsheet a cost comparison over time before investing in anything.

If electric rates or natural gas rates change, I will review options.

When I need a new roof, I will consider adding rooftop solar.

[loutfard]

Our hydro electric based power is so affordable in BC and we are efficient with our usage (heat set at 17'c, hang dry most clothes, keep HW Tank set lower temp) that at this point there still is no sense for us to add solar and energy storage. There are amazing federal and provincial grants as well as interest free government loans currently to do so. An ERE mindset though tells me that as there is no need to upgrade, it would be an aesthetic or signalling move rather than practical in our present situation.

Energy storage is highly unlikely to be effective yet indeed. Solar panels though... Have you run the numbers recently? I can see ~0.04€/kWh here for solar without subsidies.

[Stasher]

We have worked hard at reducing our electrical usage, invest in energy efficiencies and when combined with our Hydro Electric energy provider who is currently at a rate of 11C/kwh it results us in equalized monthly payments of $72/month. I just don't see the capital investment ROI to go solar and maybe if we had coal power plants then I would do it for climate/environmental reasons but for monetary, the justification isn't there for me.

[7Wannabe5]

Most recent video on Nate Hagen's "The Great Simplification" features practical expert on solving electrification problem for off-grid intentional communities. His take is that since solar is inherently DC, using passive design based approaches combined with only direct drive DC appliances makes most sense, but doing this efficiently requires a minimum approximately 10 human community base.

It is interesting to consider the range of bottom-up solutions that might start from levels larger than the completely individualistic 1 human level. However, as was noted in the videocast, modern humans are pretty attached to private property and not very practiced at sharing, and would not likely be happy with private bedroom as only non-communal space. I actually think it is more critical at Level Yellow that adult humans have private office/workshop/solo-creative-production-space than private bedroom, although each couple would also require some degree of private couple space. Family space is really the level on which communal living arrangements towards more efficient use of electricity and many other resources are most likely to break down, although family formation towards "nesting" may also take place at just the level of the couple, or even just a single human in possession of a good deal of both maternal and paternal energy towards "home"-"making."

[loutfard]

Definitely.

Our numbers in one of the cheapest EU regions for grid electricity look quite ok thanks to generous subsidies:

• cost
  • grid electricity: ~0.17€/kWh
  • local solar offering: 7800€ for a 12.5 kWp ground mount diy kit
  • state subsidy: -4000€
  • net cost: 3800€
  • service life: 20y (more for panels, maybe less for inverter)
  • depreciation: 190€/year (3800€)
  • investment opportunity cost @5%: 190€/year
• yield, breakeven, cashflow
  • conservative electric yield: ~9500 kWh/y
  • own consumption financial savings 4750 kWh (~50%): 807.5€/y (air/water heat pump, daily usage)
  • sale to grid 4750 kWh @ 0.02€/kWh: 95€/y
  • breakeven point: ~5y3m ((3800€ net cost+ 190€ opportunity cost * 5)/902.5€/y yield))
  • yield: 23.75% (902.5€/3800€)
  • net cash flow including opportunity cost and depreciation: 522.5€/y (902.5€-380€)