Number of registered cars in China

[delay]

Today I read this graph on the number of registered cars in China:



So from 110 million cars in 2012 to 330 million cars in 2023. All these cars will have to be replaced every 15 years. And growth is not even slowing down

[chenda]

A disturbing trend. Although in per capita terms its still only about one car for every 4th person in China.

[sky]

[chenda]

what is ice, nev, bev and phev ?

[7Wannabe5]

Well, some other factors to consider might be:

1) Birth rate in China has been well below replacement for many years now.
2) 330 million cars represents ownership rate of approximately 1 car per every 3 adults in China.
3) The rate of car ownership in the U.S. is approximately 1 car per adult.
4) The population density of China is 4x greater than the population density of the U.S.
5) Population density is generally negatively correlated with car ownership at similar levels of affluence, because more useful in rural areas or long commutes.

So, if future remains somewhat like the past, even if affluence in China rises to U.S. level, the rate will almost certainly slow and maybe top out around 1 car/2 adults or 660 million total cars. The rate of adoption of automobiles in the U.S. in the early 20th century once they became reasonably affordable was also very rapid.

[jacob]

what is ice, nev, bev and phev ?

Google is your friend.

ICE = internal combustion engine
BEV = 100% electric
PHEV = hybrid
BEV ~ golf cart

[Scott 2]

The percentage increase is slowing year over year. Electric vehicles are seeing rapid uptake as well, approaching 50% of new car sales.

I don't think it's clear whether the impact of this modernization is good or bad. Perhaps it will slow population growth, offsetting resource demands.

Worth noting the US is at more like 0.8 vehicles per capita, with a small minority being electric.

[chenda]

From what I understand Chinese cities, and even rural areas, are generally free of car dependancy.

Google is your friend.

Yes but I thought asking here might encourage more interesting dialogue.

[delay]

Google is your friend.

ICE = internal combustion engine
BEV = 100% electric
PHEV = hybrid
BEV ~ golf cart

The graph contains ICE, BEV, PHEV and NEV (not a second BEV.). Visiting my Google friend finds this explanation for NEV:

A NEV is a New Energy Vehicle.

It’s a term used by the Chinese government to refer to vehicles that attract public subsidies. Generally, that covers BEVs and PHEVs.

And indeed, in the graph ICE and NEV add up to 100%.

[sky]

At first, I read NEV -> Neighborhood Electric Vehicle, but apparently:

NEV (New Electric Vehicle) = BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle) + PHEV (Plug In Hybrid Electric Vehicle)

So the graph shows NEV versus ICE, while also showing the components of NEV (BEV anf HPEV).

ICE is expected to drop to zero in 2028.

[7Wannabe5]

I don't think it's clear whether the impact of this modernization is good or bad. Perhaps it will slow population growth, offsetting resource demands.

Africa is the only major region in the world still above replacement rate in terms of population growth. So, lifestyle spending will be the more significant factor influencing resource depletion in the future. Also, the means by which modernization/affluence slows population growth is more related to girls who are educated choosing to live in cities and spend their money on musical theater tickets than on rural men buying their first truck. Similarly, the current trend in the U.S. is that single women are buying their own homes at higher rate than single men, and this will also likely further reduce birth rates, because single women who buy their own homes are less likely to marry due to the Core Cottage Effect, whereas single men who buy their own homes are more likely to marry, due to the Austen Plot Effect.

[blink2ce]

What is the Core Cottage Effect and Austen Plot Effect?

[7Wannabe5]

@blink2ce:

Cottage Core Effect

The Shiny Little House
by Nancy M. Hayes
I wish, how I wish that I had a little house,
With a mat for the cat and a hole for a mouse,
And a clock going “tock” in a corner of the room,
And a kettle, and a cupboard, and a big birch broom.

To school in the morning the children off would run,
And I'd give them a kiss and a penny and a bun,
But directly they had gone from this little house of mine,
I'd clap my hands and snatch a cloth, and shine, shine, shine.

I'd shine all the knives, all the windows, and the floors,
All the grates, all the plates, all the handles on the doors,
Every fork, every spoon, every lid, and every tin,
Till everything was shining like a new bright pin.

At night, by the fire, when the children were in bed,
I'd sit and I'd knit, with a cap upon my head,
And the kettles and the saucepans they would shine, shine, shine,
In this tweeny little, cosy little house of mine!

- Nancy Hayes

As you can see no mention is made of a husband (in above poem)...The tragedy is when, after she wins her husband, she reverts to the earlier dream. She now has her little cottage, children (or rescue dog, chickens, peonies and pumpkins), and the domestic comforts and joys she has looked forward to. Her husband has only been a means to an end.

"Fascinating Womanhood"- Helen Andelin 1965

Austen Plot Effect

It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a single man in possession of a good fortune, must be in want of a wife.

-"Pride and Prejudice"

Generally, the plot lines of most romance novels derivative of Jane Austen do not stray far from the recognition that "house" is the etymological root of "hus"-"band."

[blink2ce]

Thanks 7wb5. There are so many books I want to read that I discovered on this forum and now I have added Fascinating Womanhood to the list.

[7Wannabe5]

@blink2ce:

Warning! "Fascinating Womanhood" is towards anti-Second-Wave-Feminist tome. It holds some useful nuggets, but there's a whole lot of stuff like suggestions that the best way to express anger to your husband is to stamp your little foot and say "Oh, you big beast!" It needs to be re-interpreted all the way up to Level Yellow meta-modern post-feminist sexual dichotomy theory* in order to be rendered palatable to just about anybody under the age of "not already dead." I am not an entirely good person with a streak of malicious compliance, so I actually directly quoted some of the lines from this book, such as "I want a man in my life, because I don't want to have to kill my own snakes.", while dating in the 21st century. And, the scary thing is that they totally "worked."

*For example, at the level of Modern relationship theory, the reason why saying "Oh, you big beast!" works is because it is avoiding the pitfall of expressing contempt while still allowing for expression of anger. At the level of Meta-Modern sexual dichotomy theory, it works because if your partner i self-aware masculine in core sexual energy, then "big" and "beast" will not be heard as contempt. The expression will validate his core identity while still communicating that you are feeling angry and hurt.

And, now I am going to relate this back to booming car sales in China by noting that when a human ensconces him or her self in an automobile, this has the effect of rendering them more like a Big Beast. Unless, like me, they are driving a Smart Car in Michigan.

[Ego]

I've never been in a Tesla or any other electric car sold in the US, so I can't really give an opinion on those, but I have been in two higher-end Chinese electric cars that were being used as taxis in Thailand. Both seemed to me to be very sleek automotive versions of Ikea furniture. On the (Repairable>>>><<<<Disposable) spectrum, I would guess they are close to disposable. I could be wrong.

[Henry]

I've never been in a Tesla or any other electric car sold in the US, so I can't really give an opinion on those, but I have been in two higher-end Chinese electric cars that were being used as taxis in Thailand. Both seemed to me to be very sleek automotive versions of Ikea furniture. On the (Repairable>>>><<<<Disposable) spectrum, I would guess they are close to disposable. I could be wrong.

You are not.

The chart shows NEV flattening and BHEV trajectoring (sp) upwards, indicating full electric is the future. Ego's point is that you can't superimpose a US idea of car ownership onto China. The cars are significantly smaller and the design more uniform. I'm not an expert, but government involvement in manufacturing is more significant than US. Consumer options are much more limited, and sometimes unavailable, such as gun racks and bumper stickers.

[Bankai]

I've never been in a Tesla or any other electric car sold in the US, so I can't really give an opinion on those, but I have been in two higher-end Chinese electric cars that were being used as taxis in Thailand. Both seemed to me to be very sleek automotive versions of Ikea furniture. On the (Repairable>>>><<<<Disposable) spectrum, I would guess they are close to disposable. I could be wrong.

Is this not the same sentiment which Japanese and later Korean cars were first met with in the West?

[Bankai]

Consumer options are much more limited, and sometimes unavailable, such as gun racks and bumper stickers.

Is that true though? A few years ago there were over 500 electric car companies in China and even now after significant market consolidation, there are still over 100 left with more than 50 local brands models for sale. Plus all the major European, Japanese and Korean manufacturers produce and sell in China. If anything I'd say there's probably less of a choice in the West since the car market is much more consolidated and dominated by the biggest handful of local companies.

[Henry]

As I said, I'm not an expert, but I'm guessing that those 500 electric car companies are distinctions without differences and essentially incubator companies subsidized by the government in order to beat US electric vehicle manufacturing. It's a space race in that sense. That's why Elon will spend the next two years in Washington.