Investments Trade Log

[Chad]

This is the kind of macro info I like:

http://www.kkr.com/global-perspectives/ ... HA.twitter

[Chad]

Lots of interesting companies at new lows. SDRL has gotten destroyed.

[slimicy]

Lots of interesting companies at new lows. SDRL has gotten destroyed.

Yeah, I bought at 31, 27, and then again at 23. Hope it's good for a long hold.

For anyone interested in a speculative play on Ebola, a company I'm long has a blood filter that's already selling in the EU for managing the cytokine storm that seems to be the actual cause of death for most of the Ebola patients. They're already generating good revenue just on the basis of mitigating sepsis and inflammation in the OR, but if they can get into the Ebola treatment (rather than cure) space there's a ton of potential.

Ticker: CTSO
Website: http://cytosorbents.com/

[jennypenny]

Dusted off the trading fund. This morning's watch list ...

CRK
BDCL
CEFL
CLF
EOG
PCL
QEP
RICE
SDRL
SLCA
SN
STO
TNK

[Chad]

CRK, RICE, SN, STO, SDRL, and TNK are all interesting. STO and SDRL were already on my list. Energy companies are looking really good right now. With Saudi Arabia committing to compete on price to maintain market share, it seems like oil is going to go lower. Maybe even in the $70's per barrel? This will really hammer all the oil companies going after the more expensive oil, which should provide a good buying opportunity. The low price should help boost some economies. In turn, this should help bring the price back up.

This could also lead to a nice jump in the tanker companies, as the cheap oil is usually further away from the big economies.

I'm also looking into:

SQM - I like lithium and fertilizer for the long-term.
CHK, FTK, MHR - Natural gas plays. FTK and MHR are also rather small and may also be part of the large slide in small caps.
POT - Fertilizer with a nice dividend.
FCX - commodity and strong dollar play
VNM - very long-term play on Vietnam (though, I would like to see it come down a little more)
BP - With all their problems they were already lagging and now have been beaten down further with the current drop in oil prices. They also have a nice dividend (5.6%) to tide me over until they recover.

Most of my thinking is for the longer-term.

[Chad]

Picked up a little BP today at almost the exact 52 week low. Of course, it will probably go down further, but I'm comfortable owning it at this level.

[workathome]

I'm not quite savvy enough to know what risks there are beyond interest rate changes, but some of the closed end muni funds look interesting.

NIO is selling at a nearly 10% discount with a 6% yield.

[workathome]

LUV 12/20/2014 29.00 Put options

Very small position as a "fun" gamble on Ebola.

[jennypenny]

I find myself hesitant to post in this thread. It bothers me that some people took a significant hit on SDRL. I posted when I sold it, but it's still bothering me. I feel like I should explain that (1) what I post here is part of my trading fund. The bulk of my money is currently invested in the super-boring Wellington Fund and PIMCO's Income Fund. My trading fund could be wiped out tomorrow and it would not affect our retirement plans. (2) I'm a trader by nature. I'm in and out. Most stocks make my watch list because of their potential for day or swing trades, not long term holding potential. The only stocks I'm holding right now with a long-term horizon are the mREITs. They currently provide enough income to cover our household expenses. (3) I record my trades here in a timely manner, but any delay may make it too late to profit or prevent a loss.


This thread about GTAT is required reading for anyone who's new to the game or hasn't had the skin peeled off them at least once. This link is to the day before the fall. Skim through the next 50 pages. http://forum.thecontrarianinvestor.com/ ... 9/page-499


This post shows (IMHO) a distorted approach that I worry some people adopt wrt ERE. http://forum.thecontrarianinvestor.com/ ... post-20215 I don't want to put words in jacob's mouth, but ERE is about *reducing* risk and putting yourself in a position to absorb negative events (financial or otherwise) without much of an overall effect on your life. It's not about taking a 5-10 year gamble and hoping it pays off.


I hope it doesn't sound like I'm lecturing. Well, I guess I am in a way. I just don't see taking risks* as a required part of an ERE plan.

*We all choose to take calculated risks occasionally, but if we've analyzed the risk and know that an epic fail wouldn't ruin our ERE plans, then, to my mind, it really isn't a "risk" at all.

[Chad]

Context is a good idea.

Yeah, most of my comments on here deal with ideas I plan on buying and holding for an extended period of time. Quite different than yours. Though, I do trade every now and then, it's not something I'm especially good at. For me, SDRL was a long-term hold, but the action in the stock and the markets suggest I got in too early, so I sold. I plan on getting in again, as 5 years from now this time will be that big downward blip that you say to yourself, "damn, wish I would have bought then."

I keep about 50-60% of my money in low to mid cost ETFs/funds (There are a couple ideas I like that require ETFs/Funds with expenses in the .5% range). I invest about 30-40% in what I view as undervalued companies (in my opinion BP is an example), with a small portion of that in low risk growth companies like Apple. The rest, about 5%, I hit the risk button hard, if I find something I like.

Also, the majority of my money is in tax deferred accounts, so I don't need to worry about taxes that much.

[workathome]

The GTAT forums make for a very interesting case study. I usually assume most things posted to the internet are BS, but it looks like a lot of people were genuinely wiped out.

I think that is one reason why people recommend doing a lot reading. A good chance to learn form *other people's* mistakes.

(My previous post was an outright gamble, not even a clever trade, and worst case scenario I'd lose a month's grocery budget).

[jennypenny]

Context is a good idea.

That's what I was trying to get across. I don't want people to think I have my life savings in my trading fund. I do have quite a bit of skin in the game, though. DH corrected me a little after he read my post. He said even though we'd be ok if the trading fund and mREITs blew up, it would still really, really suck.

I just wanted to make it clear that I only play the game with money I can afford to lose. Maybe everyone does the same thing and I had no reason to worry, but I wanted to say it anyway.

[Chad]

Added Chevron yesterday and placed a little more in small cap value fund. I really hope this isn't the end of the crash.

[tylerrr]

added a little UWTI.

[jennypenny]

Dusted off the trading fund. This morning's watch list ...

CRK
BDCL
CEFL
CLF
EOG
PCL
QEP
RICE
SDRL
SLCA
SN
STO
TNK

I took CLF, SDRL, and STO off of the list for now. Too much attention resulting in too many price spasms.

-------------

FYI ... I received two emails from some big time traders today saying it was time to get back into BDCs.

[tylerrr]

bought some RUSL

[Chad]

Anyone have any thoughts on McDonald's for the long-term? Nice dividend (3.74%). Price is basically at it's 52-week low. Profits dropped 30% and it's PE ratio is still only 17 or so. It's getting hammered in Russia due to Putin's closer resemblance to a Mafia Don than a world leader, but that's a minor blip for McDonald's. Plus, management is making menu changes, such as shortening the menu to improve speed of service.

[George the original one]

I think MCD will do well enough in the long run to justify a purchase when you spot a discount. My only concern is that their dividend policy is far from set in stone and subject to more fluctuation than the average stalwart dividend growth stock.

[Chad]

I think MCD will do well enough in the long run to justify a purchase when you spot a discount. My only concern is that their dividend policy is far from set in stone and subject to more fluctuation than the average stalwart dividend growth stock.

Valid point, but that isn't as big a deal for me. I'm not a pure dividends investor. They are just bonus (which is why I'm also looking at NFLX here). I hold stuff longer-term, but it's not forever. What I usually do is buy stuff that's beaten down, but is a good business. Then I sell it when it starts hitting new highs 2-5 years down the road (usually closer to 2 years) and buy another company in a similar position. So, while I really like dividends. I'm not overly concerned about consistent increases in dividends, as it is highly unlikely I buy and hold a stock for 20-30 years.

[tylerrr]

I think MCD will do well enough in the long run to justify a purchase when you spot a discount. My only concern is that their dividend policy is far from set in stone and subject to more fluctuation than the average stalwart dividend growth stock.

Valid point, but that isn't as big a deal for me. I'm not a pure dividends investor. They are just bonus (which is why I'm also looking at NFLX here). I hold stuff longer-term, but it's not forever. What I usually do is buy stuff that's beaten down, but is a good business. Then I sell it when it starts hitting new highs 2-5 years down the road (usually closer to 2 years) and buy another company in a similar position. So, while I really like dividends. I'm not overly concerned about consistent increases in dividends, as it is highly unlikely I buy and hold a stock for 20-30 years.

Let it all ride on RUSL......could double your net worth in mere months...Live a little....Only live once....