Investments Trade Log

[Chad]

There is always a "triple-Heimlich" omen or something else

I'm mostly in cash right now

I told you guys that there are a lot of doomers around here. Next thing guy is gonna start making his own soap at home!

Ha! That will never happen.

[Chad]

I actually pretend to be a doomer so Chad would sell me his positions on the cheap. Set and match!

Very funny. I won't be mostly cash for long. Once it's transferred over I will be looking. But, good strategy.

[workathome]

I re-initiated my love/hate relationship with SPX put options. Hopefully I can exit in a few weeks with a minor profit.

[Chad]

Very interesting graphic on which markets are cheap and expensive.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/pers ... rkets.html

[workathome]

Hopefully no one else followed my timing on the $SPX options. Down 26% atm!

[jennypenny]

http://smeadcap.com/smead-strategies/sm ... ll-market/

[tylerrr]

http://smeadcap.com/smead-strategies/sm ... ll-market/

interesting read....in that case, i could buy some vti every month and probably be safe for the next 30 years....

in the meantime, my JNUG is up big since i bought in the 14.00 - 15.00 range....I'm very happy today. I'll probably sell all my JNUG today near the close of market.

I recently bought some USLV because silver has been beaten down for the last two years.

[Chad]

http://smeadcap.com/smead-strategies/sm ... ll-market/

Nice article and I agree with most of it. I really liked the part below:

Lastly, the largest population group in the US is echo-boomers born between 1977 and 1996. They have been much slower to get married, have kids, buy houses and merely by their age and circumstances, they are a tiny participant in equity ownership. Notice that the previous low point in the chart above was 1982, when it was baby boomers that were the large, young population group and didn’t yet own common stocks.

Here is our assessment for the future: as interest rates rise the next ten years bond returns will sour and equity dividend payout ratios will normalize. Investors will seek income from equities in a way they are not today. Bond ownership will revert to the historical mean.

We believe returns in everything from gold, commodities and other relatively esoteric asset classes will be doomed by the lack of follow up to the once-in-a lifetime move into them from 1999 to 2012 by US investors both large and small.

I may disagree with the idea that commodities are doomed.

[tylerrr]

has anyone looked at EPU ? Giant dividend and gives exposure to Peru....I'm thinking of adding some.

[tylerrr]

I added:

CORN
WEAT
URA
REMX

[George the original one]

Gut feeling: market rally is overdone and there will be a pullback next week after the holiday weekend. I'll be tightening my mental stop losses.

If you're selling, where will you put your money? Consider LTC and GE and CLX, maybe MAT if you're feeling lucky. And the BDCs, like ARCC, PNNT, TICC, PSEC, etc.

[jennypenny]

I looked back at last year. I made some of my best trades the first week of July.

[jennypenny]

I was planning on taking the summer off from trading to spend time on other projects, but it's soooo hard to ignore the siren song of the market. Plus, my brain misses the numbers part of it. Trading feeds that part of my brain like nothing else.

For the record, I'm still holding a large stake in mREITS (AGNC, NLY, WMC). I also made a pretty big bet on some BDC's (ARCC, TCAP, TICC) because I thought the shorts were overdoing it wrt the Russell de-listing (which they were). I'll hold onto those for the time being. I'm also holding smaller stakes in CLF (ugh), PCL, SDRL, STO, and TSO. Oh, how I wish I had gone all in on TSO. It's up over 25% since I bought it back in Feb (the buy is listed in the thread somewhere).

I'm intrigued by UBS' new ETN -- LMLP. I might dip my toe in that today.

[jennypenny]

Added to SDRL. Finally got around to buying some LMLP.

Any thoughts on PIMCO bond funds? I know, I know ... bonds *and* index funds are not in favor around here, but some of my money is limited to funds.

[Chad]

I added some SDRL too and debating on adding more. Nice dividend to wait for the upturn in business. I'm also looking at Rowan in the drillers, as their new fleet will significantly increase their profit margin.

I'm not sure about the bond funds.

[Chad]

This is the wrong group to ask about a blatant consumer stock, but anyone have any thoughts on American Apparel (APP) surviving? If they do survive one should be able to make a very nice profit off the current price.

[George the original one]

I've always steered clear of retailers. Historically, very few have managed long-term smooth runs. I think because retail is all about image (remember, they don't make products) and it's so easy for someone to create an image that steals your thunder. There is effectively no barrier to entry and, for the investor, there's the double-whammy of whether wall street likes/promotes the stock.

[George the original one]

On the other hand... it takes retailers a long time to die. They often have several "recoveries" before closing doors permanently.

[George the original one]

Bought LTC for the Roth and GE, CLX for the regular account. Holding off on BDC purchases. Happy to see KLAC announcing 11% dividend increase.

[Chad]

Yeah, retailers are strange compared to others. I still might toss in a small amount, as if they survive you will probably triple your money or more. Thanks for the response George.