2014

[workathome]

So, I'm disappointed I exited those VIX positions instead of waiting it out.

[jennypenny]

It's a brave new world. I don't know what you can really compare this to.

'87 '00 '08 (and that's just my 'trading' lifetime)

The older I get, the more I realize that the stock market is less like a roller coaster and more like a merry-go-round.

I see this as a good correction. Nice and slow. No panic. Just letting a little air out of the balloon.

[vivacious]

You think it's that simple? It seems like a lot more different factors are at work than '00. And it's not as big as '08.

I would like to believe you though. Sure, dropping a few % could be healthy.

Please think about my first 3 sentences though. I can't really think of any time to compare 2014 to in the past with all of the different things going on right now etc.

[jennypenny]

You have to realize that I remember sitting in gas lines in the early '70's listening to my parents complain that the stock market was 'dead' because it hadn't gone anywhere in 10 years. I think the market dropped over 30% in '73/'74 with Vietnam, Watergate, and the President resigning. We've definitely had worse times.

[vivacious]

Oh yeah I know that for sure.

I just think between QE, reinflation after 2007/2008, maybe Obamacare, speculation, and a host of other factors, it's a strange time that's all.

[leeholsen]

Yeah. I understand that.

We've never been in this situation before. There has never been massive QE coming out of the worst economy since the Great Depression, followed by a huge year of growth which was last year, followed by whatever is going on now.

The suddenness of it is what's jarring. This isn't a gradual decline. These are huge drops. The DOW was over 16,500 a few days ago. Now it's 15,879.

It's a brave new world. I don't know what you can really compare this to.

yes, well you have to consider that today, more than ever; computer programs are driving mkt direction. the big boys like goldman sachs have set their computer scanners to scan the entire internet and if they get a smell of something they dont like, the mkt seels off quickly and everything does and thats why 85% of stocks follow the stock mkt.

but you can still trust technical indicators, the mkt never goes straight down, if if drops to fast it'll bounce back up before it drops again; the mkt very seldoms gets over so many standard deviations without a bounce back just like everything else.

imo, we're going lower short term like s+p 1775 considering how much support we broke thru today, but we still in a bullish trend; so we may be back over 1850 by march.

if you want some free analysis, springheel jack and tim knight are good over slope of hope.com and even tim knoght says we're still in a bullish trend and he's a professional short.

[DutchGirl]

I just think between QE, reinflation after 2007/2008, maybe Obamacare, speculation, and a host of other factors, it's a strange time that's all.

It has always been a strange time, and it will always be a strange time. I remember the 1980s when I thought the world might end because of a nuclear war. My parents remember the Cuba crisis. And they lived with massive inflation rates in the 70s and 80s. It's never "quiet" on this earth with us humans on it.

[George the original one]

5% drop in a week or so after hitting a new high is merely noise. Has been very orderly, little panic. If it goes down another 5%, then you'll begin to see some panic.

"This time is different". Nope, never is. Relax, buy the bargains, sell the overpriced, keep collecting the dividends.

[vivacious]

George the original One that's reassuring. So you think this could be a buy in point?

I used to like when the market went down. Get people back down to earth, be a little more level headed, and can be a good buy in point too.

[George the original one]

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2 ... e-yet.aspx

With that said, it's a buying point for the stocks that are priced right. If you're looking at index funds, then there's not much I can advise you on because evaluating "the market" is tougher than evaluating a single business.

[Chad]

It's a brave new world. I don't know what you can really compare this to.

'87 '00 '08 (and that's just my 'trading' lifetime)

The older I get, the more I realize that the stock market is less like a roller coaster and more like a merry-go-round.

I see this as a good correction. Nice and slow. No panic. Just letting a little air out of the balloon.

Absolutely on all of it. Warren Buffett warned, “You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus.” He is speaking about being a contrarian.

[elegant]

Yeah. I understand that.

We've never been in this situation before. There has never been massive QE coming out of the worst economy since the Great Depression, followed by a huge year of growth which was last year, followed by whatever is going on now.

The suddenness of it is what's jarring. This isn't a gradual decline. These are huge drops. The DOW was over 16,500 a few days ago. Now it's 15,879.

It's a brave new world. I don't know what you can really compare this to.

Stay the course and stop watching your portfolio too often.

[tylerrr]

why do you say it's a "brave new world" ?

This is nothing new. Markets go up and down. They sky rocket and they crash. I am shorting SPY. I don't believe we are still in a "bull market" after we've had the biggest gains in history the last year. I guess people always think the market will keep going up forever.

[KevinW]

"This time is different". Nope, never is. Relax, buy the bargains, sell the overpriced, keep collecting the dividends.

+1

Pick an investing strategy and stick to it. The "stick to it" part is more important than what the plan is.

I am in the PP and am doing nothing, just holding it the same as always.

[workathome]

Dear Gold,

Please reverse your losses from last year. It would really help my portfolio look a lot nicer.

Sincerely,
Bug

[workathome]

Starting to wonder if Hussman was right about calling the market top around 185...

[jennypenny]

Starting to wonder if Hussman was right about calling the market top around 185...

Now if he would just call the bottom for us.

[vivacious]

Well, some of you guys acted like I'm Dr. Doom or something.

We've been in a freefall the last couple weeks though.

Everyone seems to be cashing out. The gains from the last few months at minimum are wiped out. It might keep dropping also.

[leeholsen]

Starting to wonder if Hussman was right about calling the market top around 185...

just fyi, 3 of the analysts i follow are saying that the current correction will continue. none are calling to get out completely yet, but see 1700 s+p.

but putting that in perspective, s+p was up 30% last yr and so far is down only 5%; so panicking here isnt warranted.

[jennypenny]

@vivavious--I don't think anyone was arguing with you about what might happen, but about what it meant. I think the last couple of weeks have been the best scenario anyone could have hoped for when the Fed started to unwind their position. IMHO, 'freefall' is when market triggers start to trip.

I also wouldn't say that everyone is cashing out. The smart money either pulled out months ago or is staying the course and not worrying about the current slide. If I was in right now, I wouldn't pull out and book the loss. I would ride it out.