Investments Trade Log

secretwealth · Post by **secretwealth** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 2:45 am

Thanks, George--I always love hearing your perspective.
Agreed that we've probably got more room to fall, but it's hit income classes so hard already, that I'm wondering if their fall will continue to overindex the market as a whole. I find it hard to imagine--some pretty stable funds (PMX, PSEC) are showing very high yields. I can't imagine they have room to go down much further, but the market has surprised me many, many times before.

freebooks · Post by **freebooks** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 2:46 am

Where do you put your money when you feel the market may be too high? Just US cash?

George the original one · Fri Jun 21, 2013 2:53 am

Yes, just US cash. I expect I'll be carefully buying all summer long.

freebooks · Post by **freebooks** » Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:16 am

Thanks George. I'm 25% cash atm. I have tried to base decisions on what I believed were long-term macro trends, but so far I've been completely off base. Not that they wont still play out eventually. I'd really like to learn how you guys pick stocks (Jacob too?) and evaluate companies on an individual basis - something I have no clue on.

jennypenny · Post by **jennypenny** » Mon Jun 24, 2013 4:15 pm

Everyone having fun?
I bought everything but PAC last week (dropped off of watch list). Sold a little BPT (might sell more). Added to a few things this morning including all of the mREITs.
Anyone have any thoughts about regular REITs going forward?

Chad · Post by **Chad** » Mon Jun 24, 2013 5:46 pm

Lots of fun. Buying opportunities are going to be appearing soon.
I especially like the Turkish and Brazilian markets at some point. iShares MSCI Turkey Invest Mkt Index (TUR) and iShares MSCI Brazil Capped Index (EWZ) are approaching 52 week lows, which is almost a 30% drop for both markets. Of course, that doesn't mean they can't go lower, but I like it when decent economies have bad markets.

secretwealth · Post by **secretwealth** » Mon Jun 24, 2013 6:27 pm

In my opinion, the selloff in BDCs is overdone and there are some great opportunities there--PNNT, PSEC, ARCC in particular. I also think some leveraged bond funds are offering great yields and are going to hit a bottom soon--the question is when.

freebooks · Post by **freebooks** » Wed Jun 26, 2013 12:38 am

I picked up PM, XOM, and EEM today.
I hope I know what I'm doing...

freebooks · Post by **freebooks** » Wed Jun 26, 2013 8:18 pm

Also picked up the following:
AFL, BMO, BP, COP, CVX, CL, IBM, MCD
My precious metal holdings continue to get blasted... and it looks painful. Logically, maybe I should buy. I still have a large Permanent Portfolio-sized position though.

freebooks · Post by **freebooks** » Thu Jun 27, 2013 12:25 am

If you don't own any Gold, now might be a great time
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-2 ... -cash-cost
"Newly mined gold supply makes up a large portion of annual gold supply (it provides two-thirds of annual physical demand, according to the WGC numbers above)."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1468971 ... -investors

Chad · Post by **Chad** » Thu Jun 27, 2013 12:08 pm

Soros has bought gold miners and call options. He isn't the guy to follow to find the next Google, but he is great at macro calls.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1512072 ... mered-gdxj
I am looking at Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX). It is almost at a 7 year low. Plus, you get the dividend while you wait a year or so for this to come back up.
This is what I would call a long-term trade for me more than an investment.

freebooks · Post by **freebooks** » Thu Jun 27, 2013 1:23 pm

I've been hit so hard on my Gold trade that I want to run away, but it seems like logically this is the exact time I should be picking up some more.
Edit:
GDXJ has been destroyed! Sitting at only 20% of it's 2011 high. Options would take some of the risk away by locking in the fees.
Wow, Soros' position in GDX is rather large. Half of his JJ position in current value. If his bet pays off, it might end up being larger!

Chad · Post by **Chad** » Thu Jun 27, 2013 1:57 pm

Always tough to throw money where you have already lost. Plus, gold prices can stagnate for a long time. Always makes me leary to play gold.
Soros' trade is rather large. Though, we have to keep in mind that he has to go big for it to have an impact on his total return. It takes a lot to move the needle on billions of dollars.

freebooks · Post by **freebooks** » Thu Jun 27, 2013 6:27 pm

Now that I'm a hotshot investor, bought some GDX. That said, it's only about 0.3% of my portfolio and various precious metal holdings are still sitting at 20ish% *
* In the past I've used a full-service broker and had others manage my money poorly (rageface) for me. Now I'm trying to do it directly at a discount broker and starting small.

Chad · Post by **Chad** » Fri Jun 28, 2013 12:10 pm

@freebooks

FYI. A counter argument to purchasing gold miners at this time is in the link below. I do think we need to see a few bankruptcies/going out of business signs on some junior gold mining companies or even a major or two before this downturn is played out.
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/0 ... ner-crash/

freebooks · Post by **freebooks** » Fri Jun 28, 2013 3:24 pm

Check Google news, there's deaths at one Gold mine in Sudan, protests at another in K????stan, strikes in South Africa, a Gold mine in Central Africa Republic just collapsed
New Zealand mine suspending operations:
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/oce ... 2013-06-28
20% of Gold Mine production to be shutdown:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/art ... ne-carnage
Mining operations suspended in Alaska:
http://resourceinvestingnews.com/57948- ... nance.html
It doesn't look good for miners, but it does seem bullish for the price of Gold. I sold for a $224.20 profit after commissions. Hopefully it does drop down lower.

secretwealth · Post by **secretwealth** » Sat Jun 29, 2013 12:48 am

What has been the ratio between demand for gold as an investment/inflation hedge and demand for physical gold for jewelry etc.? I'd want to figure that out before I even thought about investing in gold.

jennypenny · Post by **jennypenny** » Fri Jul 05, 2013 12:37 pm

Added to WMC @15.20 this morning. Added significantly to NLY @11.30.

Mostly waiting on gold and silver. Prices have dropped but there hasn't really been a panic yet. I've been buying small amounts from 3 dealers to establish/maintain relationships, but I'll wait for more of a panic before I back up the truck. I've been buying 3 to 1 gold to silver.

tylerrr · Post by **tylerrr** » Sat Jul 06, 2013 10:17 pm

like others mentioned on this thread, GDX is looking very attractive to me too. I'm gonna buy some as a long.

Iteration · Post by **Iteration** » Thu Jul 18, 2013 8:53 pm

As a medium-term swing trade, I purchased SH (inverse S&P ETF) @28.30

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