Loutfard's journal

[loutfard]

Scenario planning along with a good dose of "it CAN happen here/to me" when thinking it through and doing it from a mindset that a portfolio is not just a bunch of papers but represent claims on real people and real stuff.

Problems to consider:
...
Tariffs/countertariffs.
...

You correctly spotted that one.

Looking at the last few days, I should add macro economic policy manipulation. The perfect lever for front running by the well-connected. Plausible deniability included, unless practiced extremely blatantly.

[chenda]

I suppose in some sense everything is potentially real estate with all the pros and cons property can bring.

[loutfard]

A Collier problem occurs whenever a new technology requires the technology it nominally replaces to function due to efficiency limits. Steam ships replaced sailing ships, but without windjammers the steamships could not function. This led to worldwide exports, paradoxically with large sailing vessels often transporting the coal needed by steamships, as they were more economical to operate on long oceanic sea routes.

Thanks to the wonderful no tech magazine, the lesser known little brother of lowtechmagazine.com.

[loutfard]

I've worked on home automation at the summer house for the past a week. This project predates my discovery of ERE. If I'd started it now, I would have kept things a bit simpler. Still, a very interesting project with plenty to learn.

Most of my time this week went to cable management. I wired up four patch panels in the technical room, and I added keystone rj45 connectors at every sensor inlet around the building.

Next is connecting up a pile of dual light switches. I hope to do at least one tomorrow. The rest, and the temperature and smoke sensors, will be a summer job.

It's so fulfilling to see the cable spaghetti cleaned up. Structured cabling can sometimes be slightly meditative work. I should do this more often.

The way I designed this home automation system was also great fun. It's privacy friendly, free software, open hardware, wired only, vendor neutral, with proper structured cabling.

Perhaps I should start to design and build this kind of stuff for others too...

[loutfard]

We currently live in a simple house in a university city with everything in walking distance, quiet green dead-end street. I've identified a few options for moving somewhere ~300-350k€ cheaper. See below. My wife and I both like option 1 best, if that ever materialises. We don't want to wait for eternity though.

If you were us, which of the below would you prefer? Why?
- option 0:
- Stay where we are. Happy little spot, just fscking expensive.
- Few options to lower the cost. Long term letting/renting out a room is illegal here. Airbnb during summer while at our summer house might be an option.

- option 1:
- cohousing house or apartment in a super good fit community
- to here/wife's job: 8.6 km bike or bus
- to my job/parents (2.5x/wk): 8.6km bike/bus + 1h12' train(Mo-Fr)/2h20' train (Sat-Sun)
- waiting time unknown; waiting since a year for a spot to open up
- reasonably priced rental

- option 2:
- 500 m² plot for standalone small single floor construction <= 80 m² with simplified permit
- to here: 13.6 km
- 95k€ + ~20k€ fees and taxes+ diy build

- option 3:
- 450m² plot, for standalone construction <= 60 m² at ground level
- to here/wife's job (2x/wk): 37.8km; 3.5 km bike + 24' train 5x/hour
- to my job/parents (2.5x/wk): 3.5km bike + 1h54' train(Mo-Fr)/2h20' train (Sat-Sun)
- 75k€ + ~20k€ fees and taxes+ diy build

- option 4:
- 160m² standalone house requiring renovation on 350 m² plot
- no car access (50m public foot/cycle/horse path instead), so a bit of an ugly duckling in that sense
- to my parents: 5km
- to my job: 5km (2x/wk)
- to here/wife's job (2x/wk): 3.4km bike + 1h11' train/8km cycling + 47' train
- 105k€ + ~22k€ fees and taxes + diy renovation

[ertyu]

Imo you should stay where you are even though it's expensive unless a really wonderful option appears. If you move somewhere and unexpected problems arise, or if you make things cheaper in a way that increases her unpaid household work burden, she might end up resenting you. Besides, the property's location seems good and the resale value is likely to hold. You are chomping at the bit to move, it's always on your mind and you're always trying to find a way, thinking how much cash you'll liberate, but it might be better that you don't liberate it and you let this property appreciate.

What if you took an illegal lodger? Someone that pays you under the table. Surely people do that.

[loutfard]

Imo you should stay where you are even though it's expensive unless a really wonderful option appears.

Thank you for your input. That is also our short term plan for now.

If you move somewhere and unexpected problems arise, or if you make things cheaper in a way that increases her unpaid household work burden, she might end up resenting you.

Any decision would be a shared one. Ours, not mine.

thinking how much cash you'll liberate, but it might be better that you don't liberate it and you let this property appreciate.

I expressed myself not too carefully. This is about freeing up cash flow through rent, not freeing up capital through a sale. The area is in very high demand and easily attracts high-quality tenants.

What if you took an illegal lodger? Someone that pays you under the table. Surely people do that.

I've done that before when I was the only financial provider for us. No more. My wife cannot deal with the noise. Also, very easy to get bitten by bizarrely pro-tenant laws here, even when paid under the table.

One thing I've learned here is to take _a lot_ of time looking at the subject matter. As you've aptly noticed, we're not in a hurry. I'm chewing on this every few months, and time is still rewarding us with new perspectives and alternative options.

We might very well stay put, rent elsewhere or - let's hope still some time away- go care for an aging parent.

Real estate might very well be an option as an interesting ERE-compatible project for me to work on, whether we go live in it or not. Not realtor stuff, but adding value building or renovating something affordable. I love no-nonsense work and low budget creativity. A fiscal escape route too from the world's highest labour taxation.

And now for something completely different. Yoghurt.

Since guitarplayer and J_ convinced me to go mostly vegan, and my wife realised she is slightly lactose intolerant, we switched to soy yoghurt. I was slightly annoyed at the price tag: 3.44€/l for soy based yoghurt versus 0.69€/l for milk based yoghurt.

Some time ago, I asked my mother if she still had the old yoghurt maker I had last seen in 1989 or so. Silly question. Of course she did! My wife lovingly calls my mother's attic "Ali Baba's cave" for a reason. Mother spent a week or two digging for the yoghurt maker and gave it to me a few weeks ago.

Today, I finally got around to making my first soy yoghurt. A 0.69€/l pack of soy milk, two tablespoons of skyr, and 9 hours later, we had the first results. I love the taste. If my wife also approves, that will yield us soy yoghurt at both winter and summer house, and ~200€/year lower expenditures.

[loutfard]

The minimalist challenge has provided inspiration. It made me realise I have some work to do. Our operation isn't lean and mean yet. Too much unused and broken stuff. Gathering dust. Taking up prime cupboard real estate. Not even properly sorted.

Some things are not to be touched. The fifteen desert cups taking up space in prime kitchen cupboard real estate have not been used in years. My wife insists we keep them, there and only there. And why do we need five soup laddles, all tightly squeezed together with more stuff into one too small pot in a prime spot in the kitchen ? They're to stay there and only there.

Plenty of other things to minimise before that becomes an issue though. With some luck, getting those cleaned up might generate enough goodwill to get the stuck bits moving.

[loutfard]

Ah, the quiet life of a tenured public servant can sometimes be a good reminder why I'm striving for ERE. Friday evening's email from my boss was definitely manglement rather than management:

"As I have said before, nine hours on a single day is too much. You'll have to split this over two days, with a maximum of seven hours. Let me know which day you prefer, except Mondays or Tuesdays."

I built this successful operation and showed quite a bit of flexibility doing this in the first place. My customers are (very) happy with my work. They _want_ me to work this specific single day. My previous boss specificly asked me to. My current boss significantly damaged my opportunities by pushing away my most motivated and competent colleague. Other colleagues are working the same job longer hours than the limit she sets me. But no, I'd have to spend an extra three to four hours commuting. I'd be away from home three late evenings a week instead of two. I skipped an opportunity much closer to home to concentrate on this. My boss is a "communications expert", but a short meeting or a phone call to discuss "what we had discussed before"(we hadn't) was too much to ask apparently.

There's a very rare job opening in this very same specific niche, walking distance from our place. Applications are probably highly oversubscribed, but I know who will be submitting an application.

[Jean]

Shity boss can ruin a place. What is frustrating, is that the echelon above it never seems to figure out why all the competent employee started leaving at the same time.

[loutfard]

Shity boss can ruin a place. What is frustrating, is that the echelon above it never seems to figure out why all the competent employee started leaving at the same time.

Thank you for your reply, Jean.

P.S. I saw your guide video yesterday. Looks like you had fun!

[Scordatura]

"Manglement rather than management" is an excellent phrase.

I'm a big believer that people problems are the biggest problems in any organization. I've left jobs I've otherwise liked in a hurry once I've realized I didn't fit with the people.

..there isn't a chance you could convince her of your point of view, is there? I'm not innately hopeful, but it's often worth another attempt.

[Veronica]

manglement rather than management:

Stealing this; great aphorism!

[loutfard]

..there isn't a chance you could convince her of your point of view, is there?

That would require her to listen.

[Scordatura]

Pretty much what I expected. Exit is often more powerful than voice, anyway.

Good luck on your job application!

[loutfard]

My wife is super happy with the two 1000 pcs puzzles I bought her at the charity shop for 3€. "Never mind if a piece is missing. It's the process that does it for me."

I also made my first attempt at a homemade body scrub. She very much enjoys that kind of thing. We already had sugar (0.69€/kg) and sunflower oil (1.85€/l) in the kitchen. An AI tried to convince me to let some mint leaves and berries soak in slightly warm oil, but that didn't really work out. Probably my impatience. When trying something new, I like to try and find out with how much simplification I can get away. So... I just grabbed a little bottle of almond extract for kitchen purposes and poured it into the sugar/oil mix. No veto against at least trying the end product. Let's iterate from there.

[brainstorm]

I like that puzzle mindset. I ought to do the same, just to spite the part of my brain that insists on perfection. And there are a lot of puzzles and board games at the nearby thrift shop.

An AI tried to convince me to let some mint leaves and berries soak in slightly warm oil, but that didn't really work out. Probably my impatience.

This sparked a memory from a few months ago - Gemini suggesting someone let garlic infuse into oil at room temp. A great way to grow a botulinum culture https://old.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/commen ... ource=link

Maybe you know this stuff already, but I didn't (I'm pretty ignorant about canning and infusing). I think garlic is more typically a contributor than mint or berries though.

Ditto the others. Good luck with the new opportunity! Commuting by foot is awesome when you can manage it.

[NewBlood]

there are a lot of puzzles and board games at the nearby thrift shop.

When I lived in DC, there was a thriving puzzle swap organized on Facebook. Write a post with pics of the puzzles you want to get rid of, and offer them up for free or for a swap.

Alors several posts about "oh oops, I just gave away this puzzle, but just found a piece under the couch, can't remember who took the puzzle "

[loutfard]

My wife finished her first puzzle. "The clouds drove me crazy. All blue and white. So happy I finished it."

Bank one warned me this morning my credit card turns from free to 2€ a month starting July 1st. I applied for a free replacement at bank two and got approved. The process is stuck on a technical issue on the bank's side now.

[loutfard]

I might have identified if not the perfect plot for ERE living in Belgium, then at least a viable path towards one compatible with my wife.

It's a 70k€, 600 m² (0.15 acres in non-SI units) plot with a dilapidated, but structurally sane house on it, 2km from a station with plenty of trains to the centre of the capital in 20' and a decent train link to our current place (slow but direct, or fast but stopover).

The garden is quite large and has several dilapidated outbuildings. The local zoning rules are unusually flexible. A historical footpath runs along the garden plot. The idea would be to renovate the main house and rent it out, then build a 60m² officially approved garden house we could live in in the future. It's conceivable the local government would even be willing to split the land into two plots. We'd own a fairly in demand long term rental that makes economic sense of its own, plus a place for ourselves. And we could execute this plan without committing to living there yet, which is crucial to my wife.