Future of Artificial Intelligence

[7Wannabe5]

And likewise, will e.g. "average IQ AI" do anything beyond replacing office workers with half an associate degree with an "IT system" or replace $40,000/year taxi and bus drivers with $40,000/year robo-drivers? Of course if I was a bus driver or investing in AI-bus systems, it would make a difference for me. As a passenger, I don't see much difference.

I think the consensus is that AI is already at the level of a bright college graduate who intermittently takes LSD while on the job. I think you are actually indirectly making the point through your argument, because the upheaval will be based on no longer being able to hold your roles as worker, consumer, investor, etc. as independent from each other, because in each/every role you will be in competition with AI.

[Henry]

What's the market for self-driving vehicles for affluent old Americans vs. the market for solar-powered fat tire scooters for young African kids? Why keep building or innovating on top of an out-of-date, too expensive infrastructure?

Well, TSLA is a trillion dollar company specializing in autonomous transportation and to my knowledge it hasn't announced a solar powered fat tire scooter product so I think whatever the market is for self-driving driving vehicles for affluent old Americans it's greater than the solar powered fat tired scooter market whether its in Africa or any other place.

And it just seems to me that if you can decrease the cost, danger and energy consumption of the millions of vehicles that travel our out of date and too expensive infrastructure it's better than maintaining the status quo.

[7Wannabe5]

@Henry:

Sure, but that's small potatoes in the possibility window. "It is easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism." -Fredric Jameson, "The Seeds of Time."

[Scott 2]

I am finding with novelty gone, most of my AI use is lazy information searches. My life doesn't demand critical thought very often, I guess?

I did try tasking it with finding my next credit card churn. Chat GPT did an abysmal job at that. Same with getting me the best price on cat litter. Or identifying the best coupon for my latest online purchase. The special purpose tools were better in all cases.

I didn't trust the AI search on Instacart. I dug around until I could find the category menus instead, because I didn't want to miss any options. I also tend to favor individual reddit threads over Google AI summaries. By the time I've left chat gpt, I've abandoned interest in an AI answer.

[7Wannabe5]

I did try tasking it with finding my next credit card churn. Chat GPT did an abysmal job at that. Same with getting me the best price on cat litter. Or identifying the best coupon for my latest online purchase. The special purpose tools were better in all cases.

Well, I think most humans with bright college graduate level IQ would also slack off if given such boring assignments. Pretty much like the episode of Seinfeld when Mr. Pitt makes Elaine go sock shopping for him.

[Henry]

@Henry:

Sure, but that's small potatoes in the possibility window. "It is easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism." -Fredric Jameson, "The Seeds of Time."

The end of the world, I know where I'm going. The end of capitalism, not sure, but at least I won't have to drive myself.

[Stasher]

As I try to listen to all of Nate Hagen's podcasts now that @7Wannabe5 turned me onto his great website and content, seems relevant to share a recent one he just posted from his "Frankly" series of short reflections on current topics.

https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/ ... aces-of-ai

The archetypes of AI relationships with society.

[7Wannabe5]

@Stasher:

I believe Axel Heyst originally introduced Nate Hagens to the forum. I just yak about stuff I like more than he does.

[zbigi]

A problem with Nate Hagens to me is his credibility. Last year, he invited some fellow who was making some truly bizzare claims about war in Ukraine, e.g. that Ukraine is on its last legs and Russia will take Kiev by Dec 2024. He was backing that up with some statistics that can be only heard in Russian propaganda. Nate was mostly nodding his head in agreement. The whole episode sounded like some kind of heavy conspiracy theory podcast - the guest claimed to have a lot of knowledge that contradicts everything the public knows about the war.

[7Wannabe5]

@zbigi:

I think most of the podcast hosts who try to cast a wide net towards not forming an echo chamber will occasionally have less than credible guests. Since I am a long-time reader, and very short-time somewhat skeptical podcast consumer, I always almost immediately research background, books and articles written by hosts and guests in order to gauge credibility. I find Nate Hagens' guests to be largely credible, but often varying in terms of their preferred approach to the meta-crisis or related matters. For example, his guests who have an emotional approach to destruction of nature are quite different than his guests who have a rational approach to national debt level.

[zbigi]

A joke from Hacker News on AI replacing developers:

"Great news, boss! We invented this new tool that allows nontechnical people to write code in English! Now anyone can deploy applications, and we don't have to hire all those expensive developers!"
"Wow, show it to me!"

"OK here it is. We call it COBOL."

For those unaware, COBOL is one of the earlier programming languages, conceived in 1960. It has made programming much easier compared to alternatives existing at the time.

I think the joke is great because it contains a kernel of truth - ultimately, the tool doesn't matter, you still need technically minded people who will be able to explain the computer the logic that the program needs to follow. Whether you do it in assembly, COBOL, Java or a million chat GPT prompts is secondary.