I Was Once Found But Now I Am Lost

[Sclass]

Yup, something like that, but I imagined the unflavored gelatin (like agar in petri dish) as helping with keeping the thin old skin lubricated and cushioned. Kind of like the goo in a suspended-animation for space travel pod. The gelatin like substance could also serve to enclose the fecal matter prior to disposal.

Yes there you go. It’s like a mechanical womb for adults.

[Henry]

So autonomous driving is a fantasy, but old people shitting above the clouds in snow globes is on the table. I hate to say it, but I'm sensing some anti-Tesla bias here.

TSLA went up 14.75% for some reason today. I think people are thinking Elon is going to become the Ambassador of AI.

[suomalainen]

You realize you guys are just talking about the pods in the Matrix, right?

[Sclass]

Oh yeah. You’re right.

ETA-

So autonomous driving is a fantasy, but old people shitting above the clouds in snow globes is on the table. I hate to say it, but I'm sensing some anti-Tesla bias here.

TSLA went up 14.75% for some reason today. I think people are thinking Elon is going to become the Ambassador of AI.

Okay Henry let’s bring it back. This is your journal after all. I got all excited about TSLA this winter when FSD12 was released. My geriatric/alcoholic 89 yo FIL who happens to shit in a bag asked me what I thought of TSLA self drive. Without knowing much about it I said it was BS tech. “That car will kill you.” He said “really?” and went on to explain how another old guy at his country club uses an FSD12 Model Y to drive him around. “I think you’re wrong Sclass.” The old man is pretty polite and has rarely said that over the last thirty years to me. It got my attention.

I bought the shares after taking a hard look at the system. From what I can tell it works. I honestly don’t understand how it works. It just does and it does well. It actually works really well. Anyone saying it doesn’t work just hasn’t been on an FSD12 ride. The cost of research (buying a $40k car and signing up for FSD12) is a lot less than what I’ve invested. Taking out the nag ware will make it a cyber taxi. Think about that for a second…deleting guardrail code makes it a cyber cab not improving algorithms to make it a cyber cab. The hard part is already done. Now Tesla just has to play an Uber. No not by making a cab service…rather launching the app without permission and letting society force regulators to accept it after the genie is out of the bottle. That Uber. I actually think that’s what Elon has done to us already with FSD12.

My FIL has a new life. He can drive at night (old people cannot see in the dark). He can drive drunk. He can hang out at his favorite nightclub till closing. He’s freaking 89 years old. And he shits in his car on the way home using a colostomy bag. He just has to keep his eyes open or he’ll get the driver attentiveness nag. To him it’s the greatest thing since Viagra.

I even let my FIL drive me out to lunch. That’s no small thing because the DMV should have taken his license away. His driving sucks when he’s sober. But not with FSD12. The car even parks itself. I am working on getting it to communicate with his garage door which is not compatible with the car. It’s just a matter of time before he drives through the door.

My wife is totally pissed off. She blamed me for empowering her dad to do foolish things with his money. I must say he does seem to show up on our driveway more often. He calls from his car and says “I decided to go driving I’m in the driveway.” It’s kind of annoying. I’m just thanking God he isn’t calling and saying “I’m in the driveway and I need a change.”

[chenda]

I think there's a strong anti-car feeling hereabouts.

@SClass I find that story absolutely mind-blowing. I thought self driving was just a theoretical concept not actually happening right now

[SouthernAlchemy]

letting society force regulators to accept it after the genie is out of the bottle

No doubt on Elon's mind as he was pimping for the new US prez-

[chenda]

I wonder how they will work on single track roads, which are very common here. The etiquette when you face an oncoming vehicle is that the car closest to a passing bay reverses into it. But how will the self drive car communicate with the other vehicle ?

[Henry]

He’s freaking 89 years old. And he shits in his car on the way home using a colostomy bag.

Leave it to Elon to solve the old person shitting problem.

The post-will not mention the event pop we are experiencing has less to do with Elon's increased role in government than with Wall Street's transition from viewing TSLA as a car company to TSLA as a multi-product AI manufacturer.

There was recent footage of a TSLA moving over for an emergency vehicle so I think the single road technology is probably developed.

[Henry]

I have returned from my most recent ascent of Mt. TSLA. We are no longer drinking the Kool-Aid. We are bathing in it. It was wonderful.

By 2035 TSLA will be a conglomerate of 7 businesses totaling a 133 Trillion market cap. Shares will be 30K. Car sales will be to TSLA what book sales were once to AMZN. Optimus robots will be by far the most profitable business. This is of course a conservative estimate. This will correspond with the last leg of my autonomous asshole care days. I will at that point sell off a few shares in order to purchase a few bots for myself as I move into my golden years of incontinence and complete dependence on curse words, which will be a most public affair, I being rich as fuck by that time.

[chenda]

I move into my golden years of incontinence and complete dependence on curse words, which will be a most public affair, I being rich as fuck by that time.

It's a beautiful thought, and I congratulate you on your investment.

[Henry]

TSLA closed yesterday at $328. According to Cern Basher, the valuation for TSLA as a pure play car company is approximately $200. So a nod to future innovation is factored into the current stock price. Based on the most optimistic outlook of future innovation, the current value of the stock should be $900+. The issue becomes probability of technological advancement and investor time horizon. I think it's fair to view TSLA as innovative as AAPL. AAPL has demonstrated over the years that their technology improves so I think it's fair to say TSLA's technology will improve. Cern believes that the greatest opportunity is in bots. He also believes that because the bot market is so humungous, there will be multiple players for many years until the inevitable buyouts and take overs. So using AMZN as an analog, if one had been following the stock closely in the early years, their move into other businesses besides books would have been evident. Similar to Jensen Huang, Elon is stating the future before it happens. On the NVDA front, they have forged a relationship with Soft Bank to build out Japan's AI infrastructure. Jensen is repeating his for every $1 of AI capital investment $5 of income. Personally, I'm still hand over fisting TSLA but not NVDA.

[Henry]

TSLA closed yesterday at $389, now up 56% on the year. The recent spike is most likely Wall Street having to add to their funds because they are underweight and their returns have suffered compared to broader market ie their clients are asking why they don't own TSLA. Plus Santa Claus rally. I've been adding but if it reaches $400 I might take a breather. Wall Street has not done a comprehensive analysis of the stock. The cyber bulls believe there will be a "great resetting" of the stock beginning in 2025 that will take it to $1000+. So the stock pricing is rising but for the wrong reasons. It is now my third largest holding behind NVDA and AAPL. Bots, FSD, and cyber cab will be popping up into general consumer consciousness in 2025. Half the time I'm not even thinking that what I'm drinking is Kool-Aid. These cults really sneak up on you. Thank God this one doesn't make you sell pencils in airports in your bathrobe. I'd hate to wake up and find myself doing that.

[Sclass]

Don’t worry, I was thinking a lot of my portfolio was in AAPL, NVDA and TSLA. But you know what? A lot of other people have very high exposures to exactly the same thing through cap weighted ETFs like SPY. 7% NVDA, 7% AAPL and 1.9% TSLA as of yesterday. So you’re not alone.

I am overweight TSLA and NVDA but I realized this morning I’m only 5% in AAPL. I thought I owned a lot too but as a % of total portfolio I’m lower than SPY. This was an eye opener. I just didn’t keep blindly buying like the index fund.

The Wall Street analyst about face on TSLA is amusing. They say FSD13 was the come to Jesus moment but IMHO 13 looks a lot like 12. Maybe they just needed to get bumped over a tiny threshold. Same lesson as always. Talk is cheap when gambling. I wish I’d put more chips down this summer. It was pretty scary watching the price bounce around but my gain is 77% since I started my Koolaid induced rants on the alpha of FSD this summer. Now I can write off my losses in Mobileye.

Tesla FSD is a lie!

ETA - got my % gain in TSLA wrong due to fat finger.

[Henry]

It's always difficult adding to a position where the differential between current purchase price and original purchase price is in the 100% or greater category. But I understand the thesis. Elon Musk is bringing Mars to Earth to grease the skids for bringing Earth to Mars. It is such a huge endeavor that the reward, at least for me, is worth gambling upon.

[zbigi]

TSLA closed yesterday at $389, now up 56% on the year. The recent spike is most likely Wall Street having to add to their funds because they are underweight and their returns have suffered compared to broader market ie their clients are asking why they don't own TSLA. Plus Santa Claus rally.

My uninformed guess was that it was because the owner&operator just became one of the most powerful people in US government. The stock was flat YTD till election day, then jumped up 60%.

[Henry]

I don't think it's that simple although it might be a contributor. The advances in FSD are becoming too tangible to ignore.

[suomalainen]

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 024-12-13/

Probably a coincidence.

[Henry]

I get it. TSLA is the stock version of the Hawk Tua coin except it has political favor. That being said, if a few grocery store fender benders go overlooked so we have a future without old ladies driving thousand pound gas fueled missiles around town, I have no problem looking the other way.

The 65% Trump bump was more than I anticipated or actually wanted. I was very comfortable buying under $400 but now at these numbers it's testing my mettle. It knocked me off my game plan. Guess I'll just get my Kool-Aid cup refilled and quadruple down on what the prophets are saying.

[Sclass]

The Reuters piece has a bunch of problems. They mix up their data between total fatalities and autopilot fatalities. The vast majority of Tesla fatalities are due to reckless driving and single car accidents under human control. But the story has more impact if they don’t mention that and imply autopilot killed all those people. What I mean is yes it is the most deadly car, yet it’s when people not FSD are in control.

A sad example was in my hometown when a bunch of kids took themselves out of the gene pool in their mommy’s super car. I drove right through this spot a few hours before it happened. This seems to happen a lot when kids get their hands on the highest performance car for the money. If they were running FSD12 the car wouldn’t have gone airborne.

https://youtu.be/FwNzkMfiGjY?si=NxxseCOXg3_Dv6Km

Here’s one about a cyber truck wrecked by young boys in Oakland. Again not a self drive fatality. A fast car fatality.

https://youtu.be/H59hIIwYDdU?si=PXYMCLTwvlvfXIPk

This is happening a lot. Young guys. Testosterone. Very fast car borrowed from mom. It’s like giving a child a dangerous toy. The car accelerates faster than a Ferrari and they let their kids drive their buddies in it. Kids always drove like maniacs. But now they have super cars desguised as mommy cars.

If Elon is guilty of something it was giving the car too much power. I mean wouldn’t it have been cool if it had more range instead? Nope. They had to give us “ludicrous mode”. Childish engineering sold as environmentally friendly.

And like I said before about the WSJ piece on TSLA accidents. The old autopilot sucked. The majority of sensational stories about accidents is about the old Mobileye Hardware tech. The story may be current but the NHTSA data is old in the fast moving world of Tesla FSD. Ancient history in the TSLA FSD story. The old autopilot was deadly…and fraudulent. Something really changed with FSD12 this year. But I already said that between sips of Koolaid months ago. The time to capitalize on the market’s ignorance has passed. I think Wall St. has finally caught on.

Good job picking the TSLA. I should have bought more.

[suomalainen]

I was more focused on the regulatory capture on steroids. I guess we'll see how it shakes out.