Capital Preservation

[Slevin]

Side note tangent. Maybe I was wrong about Credit Suisse when I posted in your journal last week?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cue-d ... -swap-line

I got the low down for you. Nothing to do with credit Suisse. I don’t quite understand all the intricacies, but apparently 15 different Swiss banks found they could make 0.25% on a two week loan by borrowing this money from SNB then lending it over a two week period.

[classical_Liberal]

Use your money to do that which you already want to do. So maybe the next urban farm you work on, will be your own, or partially your own.

Good advice for J+G, I've tried to state the same, but far less concise and articulated.

I got the low down for you. Nothing to do with credit Suisse.

Interesting, thanks.

Negative CPI adjustments do matter to those of us who bought I-bonds with a positive premium.

Still bragging!?!! I hate you! hahaha

I have multiple 00's of K sitting in MM's or settlement accounts awaiting the stonk market. I sent about a third of it to work today in STIP. My thought process is as follows:

I'm getting about 2.2% in those accounts and STIP paid just under 7% in the previous year.

Yield curves should be favoring the ST for the LT to catch up.

The STT inflation premium is under 2.5%... seems ridiculous given that even if the Fed reaches core inflation goals from a bullwhip effect. De-globalization, food and energy will keep CPI well above that over the next few years.

Likely STT will increase yields much more on nominal than real.

Worst case scenario I break even with the MM interest over then next 12 months. Best case I make 10%.

Another note, if I am wrong and this 2.5% inflation premium stays as rates increase, I will be pretty happy. LT TIPS start to break the 2 handle, I will seriously start to consider buying treasury direct with most of my portfolio. I mean, I'm mid 40's and will live with savings even at 75% of SS at 70. A 2.5%+ real rate almost guarantees me a 5% WR over the next 30 years. This is like a safety dream come true.

[prudentelo]

" But by all means, invest what isn't currently needed. But don't give investment more headspace than it deserves. Keep your focus on achieving whatever you want, not preventing that which you don't."

Agree

Also exactly why I recommend "standard" "FIRE" plan of stock/bond.

Perhaps higher bond allocation like 50/50, especially now as bond yields quite high again.

Reasons:
- "intellectual effort" done by others
- mostly avoids catastrophe scenario (big inflation killing all-currency ""safe"" investment common catastrophe scenario averaged over the centuries and countries).
- good chance (not guarantee) of "lottery ticket" win especially now price/earning of stock relatively low and bond yield high

While good-but-MAYBE-not-great plan is "good enough" given investment return not needed

[C40]

- buy AAII membership and copy their strategy like an idiot and then learn the trade
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlxfIdsDynE (actually better in Northern-Eastern part of it \)

Is AAII good? I have recently lost access to Value Line (used to get it through a library card that is now 10 years old and probably expired). I liked the Value line info sheets a lot for quick individual stock analysis. So now I probably need to get Value Line access another way (perhaps from another library card) or find some other alternative. I see that the price of AAII isn't all that high. I think Value Line is expensive (many hundreds of $ per year) and that's not worth it for me

[jacob]

Is AAII good? I have recently lost access to Value Line (used to get it through a library card that is now 10 years old and probably expired). I liked the Value line info sheets a lot for quick individual stock analysis. So now I probably need to get Value Line access another way (perhaps from another library card) or find some other alternative. I see that the price of AAII isn't all that high. I think Value Line is expensive (many hundreds of $ per year) and that's not worth it for me

I have a lifetime membership of AAII. I mainly read their monthly magazine (if you're still in the US and you give it a few months, I'll collect some and send them to you so you can see what they are about) but have never really used their tools (some require an additional subscription). The main tools is a large set of preset stock screeners reflecting various strategies, e.g. The Graham screen, the Lynch screen, etc. Much of the magazine is dedicated to comparing these. There mostly articles with interviews of professionals. I like it because it's a step about the "retail money magazine" (like bogleheads for stock pickers), that is, not "Top 10 hottest stocks in the energy sector" but "How decision theory helps portfolio management". For value style reports, I just use CFRA reports et al. which are available free from my broker.

[Seppia]

A good alternative to value line is https://roic.ai
They also have what they call the "classic" view which is basically a ValueLine copycat
https://roic.ai/classic/WMT
It's free

[classical_Liberal]

@Seppia

Sweet free tool. Thanks!

[C40]

@Seppia - oh wow, thank you. That's great. Looking at it just briefly, I might like it better than Value line, because it is quicker/easier to navigate to the reports, and also they have report sheets for some stocks that Value Line does not.