The next big thing

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white belt
Posts: 445
Joined: Sat May 21, 2011 12:15 am

Re: The next big thing

Post by white belt »

@Lucky C

I don't want to turn this into an argument about inflation/deflation predictions, but I suspect that some of the urgency in investing in the Next Big Thing is that some folks are starting to realize that inflation is coming and in a big way. Massive fiscal and monetary stimulus have to go somewhere. Fractured supply chains and de-globalization will increase costs.

Maybe I'm just projecting my own beliefs here, but definitely some of what is driving my interest in some speculative investing is not just the easy money available, but realizing I need to make big returns to offset the coming erosion to my savings (I took my GME profits and put it into commodities and gold). I do still have a 20% allocation of cash at the moment, but if inflation heats up to 3-5% a year then I'm basically just burning it sitting in a low yield bank account.

Toska2
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Re: The next big thing

Post by Toska2 »

I agree with Ego that when I look, its for things I want to succeed and not necessarily ones that will. My desires have made for horrible investments. Here's a few concepts I was infatuated with that went bust.

Early 2000's
Building sized combined heating and power. If a company was heating a building why not make some "free" power? Capstone Turbine bouncing along to bankruptcy.

Mid 2000's
Solar and wind power generation are finally large enough to affect grids, energy storage is needed. Batteries weren't as far as they are now. Pumped air or hydro required certian geographic features which arent universal. Hmmm. Flywheels ala Beacon Power! After two test sites they were bought out and shelved.

Mid to late 2000's

New wonder material Compacted Graphite Iron (CGI) is made commercially. 1/10 the wear of cast iron, high strength and not as brittle. Possible uses in every car, truck, plane, train, ship, tractor ect. Only one company licensed it Sintercast therefore a focused investment opportunity. I watched the engine manufacturers for developments and felt they werent adopting it fast enough. Some other company might create a similar process limiting my upside. I passed. I dont know what I missed.

Green Pimble
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Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:16 pm

Re: The next big thing

Post by Green Pimble »

Alphaville wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 5:35 pm
i was only playing with small amounts, but after pulling out of crypto and other stuff decided neither that nor cash trash: i bought myself some money-saving tools instead, for greater ere/postconsumer skills. it's safer returns under inflation, although they won't be outsized. investing on myself, so to speak.
I'm interested to know what kinds of tools you have invested in?

I've recently been toying with the idea of 'investing' in a new citizenship. I suspect it's one of those things that I wouldn't regret, despite the high costs of setting up new social networks, moving costs, costs of learning a new language, etc.

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Ego
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Re: The next big thing

Post by Ego »

Yeah, I've been thinking lately about how fuck-you money was the last big thing and fuck-you citizenships is the next big thing.

Alphaville
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Location: Quarantined

Re: The next big thing

Post by Alphaville »

Green Pimble wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:50 pm
I'm interested to know what kinds of tools you have invested in?
not fully disbursed the cash yet, but started by ordering a hobby bench, which will be followed by some electronic repair tools, and maybe some carpentry stuff so i can build an indoor worm bin--and from there who knows.

i figured electronics repair alone should yield good returns, given my reliance on those devices; and the worm bin is going to be at the core of my indoor plant thing, but i don't want to buy plastic, so i might build from wood instead, and from there i can also start building other things from wood which i currently buy.

the small bench will also give me a suitable place for bicycle repair which i currently lack, and a place to handle microgreen trays, etc. plus maybe do a bit of chemistry. i live in a small place and lack a workshop space, so all must be compact.

so as not to derail this thread, you can see here maybe: viewtopic.php?f=7&t=11269 plus this one viewtopic.php?f=6&t=11835 plus there are
and viewtopic.php?f=6&t=11849

and i've also been thinking about making some of my own shoes so maybe i'll make a thread about that also (that too would share bench space). i'll say no more about all that in this thread but it's all about building postconsumer skills.

postconsumer skills: the next safe thing.

Green Pimble
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Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:16 pm

Re: The next big thing

Post by Green Pimble »

Alphaville wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:21 pm
...and i've also been thinking about making some of my own shoes so maybe i'll make a thread about that also (that too would share bench space). i'll say no more about all that in this thread but it's all about building postconsumer skills.

postconsumer skills: the next safe thing.
Haha, I like it. Thanks for your thoughts. I'll be keeping an eye out for the DIY shoes!

Lucky C
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Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:09 am

Re: The next big thing

Post by Lucky C »

@white belt

My desire for "some" cash allocation is not a bet on deflation. I have been making money from energy, miners, gold, silver, and other commodities. And I have been avoiding losing money recently by not holding bonds. So you could say I am very much "net long" on inflation.

I am also net long on equities tilted toward international and value since international has been starting to beat US and value has been starting to beat growth. My cash allocation is for future opportunities and may not make sense for most investors. It is my view that the small negative savings return will be made up for with higher expected future returns in the near future. As a simple example, if you lost 3% real due to holding cash, following that with a >0.3% better expected 10-year return than at the start of the year would put you ahead while keeping your drawdown lower. If history is a guide, there will be some point in the next couple of years where expected returns on US equities will shoot up much faster than the rate I'm losing money in savings. Not that I'm losing money now, since commodities and my equities allocation have been rising to compensate small negative real savings rates.

Anyway... instead of my call for cash maybe my point should have been to recommend to just scale back "futuristic" equity bets when everyone else is making such bets. Everybody's risk tolerance is different but on average it seems that retail investors are taking on more risk than they should. For someone who's making bets on these hot future trends using margin, or instead of paying off their mortgage or HELOC, I would say now is probably a good time to stop doing that!

white belt
Posts: 445
Joined: Sat May 21, 2011 12:15 am

Re: The next big thing

Post by white belt »

@Lucky C

Gotcha, I think we are mostly on the same page then.

On the one hand, making bets on future trends instead of paying off a mortgage is perhaps a risky proposition. On the other hand, the fact is that in the US we have mortgage/eviction forbearance continuing for the foreseeable future, extremely low interest rates, and secular inflation in the next few years. I know most people following these trends on margin are not operating at that level of sophistication, but nevertheless if I had a mortgage right now, I wouldn't be rushing to pay it off early.

Lucky C
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Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:09 am

Re: The next big thing

Post by Lucky C »

UK-with-kids wrote:
Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:23 am
So, how would you identify the speculative things to put money into now, and do you have any specific ideas :)
For shorter term trends/fads, see what teenagers are getting into now that they weren't a few months ago. They have the means to buy the product but not invest in the company, and it takes months-years to go from obscurity amongst adults to adults consuming and investing heavily in the stuff as well. Eventually the teenagers who got into it when they were younger will be able to invest in it as well or just buy more heavily once they have a career, unless it has become so popular that it's become a turn off to them.

This would require you being in tune with teenagers or creep around on sites / social networks they frequent. It would lead you to a lot of stuff you probably couldn't invest in anyway. For example, I saw posts on Minecraft when it was in alpha and the comments on Reddit were "what game is this?" But as I'm not a VC / big accredited investor / in charge of acquisitions at a big company, I wasn't able to invest in the company / ownership / brand licensing. It took years between the time it was spreading like crazy on Reddit and Microsoft & Lego got in on that action.

As a counterexample, Among Us languished for a couple years, then exploded in popularity for a few months, and is already fizzling out. It just doesn't have the depth of Minecraft and was destined to be a short term trend. You have to have a sense of what trends can endure vs. what are overdone or will fizzle out quickly, and I think the depth of the product/service has a lot to do with that. Better to open a Ninja Warrior gym when American Ninja Warrior starts getting popular than a fidget spinner store for the few months those were popular.

So maybe an option is brand licensing on things that are obscure but trending with young people? Give an independent developer/artist a little cash in exchange for a licensing contract, and if the demand turns out to be there in a few months or years, have some T-shirts and figurines made. I don't know how that all works; just throwing the idea out there.

theanimal
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Re: The next big thing

Post by theanimal »

Ego wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:15 pm
Yeah, I've been thinking lately about how fuck-you money was the last big thing and fuck-you citizenships is the next big thing.
What is your definition of fuck-you citizenship?

chenda
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Re: The next big thing

Post by chenda »

Eduardo Saverin, a co-founder of facebook, renounced his US citizenship and became a Singaporean. He says the substantial reduction in his tax bill had nothing to do with his decision...

Alphaville
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Re: The next big thing

Post by Alphaville »

chenda wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 2:22 pm
Eduardo Saverin, a co-founder of facebook, renounced his US citizenship and became a Singaporean. He says the substantial reduction in his tax bill had nothing to do with his decision...
he's still brazilian though, i think? he lives i singapore with his indonesian wife and their millions... :D

chenda
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Re: The next big thing

Post by chenda »

Alphaville wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 2:38 pm
he's still brazilian though, i think?
Yes actually it seems he grew up there until he was about 10. I wonder if he'll be liable for national service ? 8-)

Alphaville
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Re: The next big thing

Post by Alphaville »

chenda wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 2:44 pm
Yes actually it seems he grew up there until he was about 10. I wonder if he'll be liable for national service ? 8-)
in latin america conscription is for the poor :lol:

(but no, seriously, it is)

chenda
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Re: The next big thing

Post by chenda »

Alphaville wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 2:48 pm
in latin america conscription is for the poor :lol:

(but no, seriously, it is)
Haha I can imagine, though Singapore has national service and probably doesn't permit bribes, though he might be too old now :lol:

Alphaville
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Re: The next big thing

Post by Alphaville »

oh right, singapore. i played online games with a kid who did that service at 18. they had him in an office or something, so it wasn't not so grueling.

yeah i don't think they'd bother a grownup. besides i think he's just resident not citizen?

also, i should have said billions, not millions :lol:

chenda
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Re: The next big thing

Post by chenda »

Ha, yes he could manage their Facebook page as part of his service. This Singaporean isn't too impressed:
Being ludicrously rich as he is — and likely to get richer — it’s unlikely that Saverin’s life in Singapore will be any different as a citizen than as an American expatriate. He’s already past the age to be hauled up for compulsory military service. As a citizen, he’ll have to pay S$100 (US$79.83) to enter either of our two casinos (foreigners enter free), but that’s hardly going to be a problem for him, is it?...And what will Singapore get from a Singaporean Saverin? It’s hard to say....You know what would be interesting? If he started championing human rights causes in Singapore..” And famous and rich as he is, he probably wouldn’t have to worry about the possibility of being detained without trial under the Internal Security Act or getting threatened with defamation suits...But I doubt this is going to happen. That’s too bad
https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_1513845

Alphaville
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Re: The next big thing

Post by Alphaville »

chenda wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 3:30 pm
Ha, yes he could manage their Facebook page as part of his service. This Singaporean isn't too impressed:



https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_1513845
hahaha! yeah.

he's a resident not a citizen though, see: https://www.forbes.com/sites/naazneenka ... 62bebf6a8e

a lot of rich americans live in singapore, especially those who have investments in china. derek sivers without being that rich went to singapore as well, then moved to new zealand.

chenda
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Re: The next big thing

Post by chenda »

Ah yes, interesting. A friend of mine lived in Singapore for some years as a lawyer. She did appreciate the almost zero crime rate and other perks. Forbes seems divided as to whether he his a martyr for escaping high taxation or an unpatriotic and ungrateful immigrate 😂

Alphaville
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Re: The next big thing

Post by Alphaville »

speaking of forbes, found this article + map:
"most welcoming countries for expats"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jennysouth ... -revealed/
http://mb.cision.com/Public/11208/24766 ... 86f56d.pdf

portugal is #1! (i wouldn't mind an eu passport...)

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