Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

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white belt
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Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by white belt »

First off, I do not intend this to be a thread about Trump's politics. I don't really care about what you think of him as a person, what you think he ought to be doing, or political tribal warfare. This is a discussion about how the world is, not how the world ought to be.

Pippa Malmgreen, a policy analyst and former advisor to George W. Bush, recently appeared on Macrovoices to discuss Trump's next moves after he leaves office. Please listen to the interview and/or read the transcript before commenting.

Here are key points of her argument:
-Trump's motivations have always been to make money and control the narrative

-Trump launched his political campaign in 2016 to drum up support for creating a media empire, and was actually surprised by his political success

-Trump will launch the Trump News Network as soon as he leaves office, and it will yield more influence than any other news platform and give him more influence than he had in the Oval Office because it will allow him to completely control the narrative

-Trump's platform will likely exist entirely online, without the restrictions and red tape of conventional TV ("Fox News with the gloves off")

-Trump will pardon Julian Assange and Edward Snowden, giving them platforms on his news network to get back at the "deep state" government establishment

-Trump will commercialize and incorporate more entertainment into "news" segments, and he likely has already worked out partnerships with major celebrities and influencers to sell their products on his platform (e.g.: Kim Kardashian and Kanye West meeting with him at the White House)



So what does this all mean for the ERE individual? I admit that although I am a millenial, I am not very social media savvy because I don't spend much time on the platforms. However, I also understand that how people consume information is rapidly changing. I think understanding some of the information flow and narrative factors involved is essential to being able to accurately infer human behavior and make predictions about the world.

My questions to start the discussion are the following:

-Do you find her thesis credible?

-What are the 2nd and 3rd order effects of TNN? Further stratification of society as people become more enveloped in their own bubbles? What will be the domestic effects in the USA?

-From an investor and systems perspective, how does one ensure that they are anti-fragile in light of such trends?


Again I hope we can keep this discussion civil and thoughtful.
Last edited by white belt on Mon Dec 14, 2020 12:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Ego
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by Ego »

white belt wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 12:39 pm

-What are the 2nd and 3rd order effects of TNN? Further stratification of society as people become more enveloped in their own bubbles? What will be the domestic effects in the USA?
I believe it goes deeper than bubbles.

https://youtu.be/fh2cDKyFdyU

tonyedgecombe
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by tonyedgecombe »

I expect he is going to be spending most of his energy on fending off bankruptcy and staying out of prison.

chenda
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by chenda »

He is not a young man.

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unemployable
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by unemployable »

white belt wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 12:39 pm
-Do you find her thesis credible?
Yes in general although the specifics are hard to predict. He may co-opt an existing news outlet such as Fox, Newsmax or ONN. Maybe Disney wants to sell him ABC, or he backs a competitor to Twitter that doesn't censor. Who knows?

But one thing is for sure: Trump will not go away. When has he ever? He's been in the public eye going on 40 years now. Someone will give him a platform, or he'll create one himself, because he's got too big an audience and there's too much money to be made to ignore. He'll announce his 2024 candidacy no later than January 21st, unless this conflicts with having an ownership stake in a TV network (doubt it does).
-What are the 2nd and 3rd order effects of TNN? Further stratification of society as people become more enveloped in their own bubbles? What will be the domestic effects in the USA?
I don't see anything different structurally from what we already have. Audiences will move around a bit. Fox may turn anti-Trump if he's somewhere else, as he's now competition.

Isn't a more fragmented media a good thing? Everyone complains about six companies owning 90% of media assets or whatever it is, and that is a valid point, so in that respect wouldn't a Trump network be part of the solution?

Unpopular opinion (as if the others I espouse here aren't): I find the media easier to understand and filter than ever, as no one hides what their biases are anymore. Fragment away!
-From an investor and systems perspective, how does one ensure that they are anti-fragile in light of such trends?
Well I've started to buy AT&T (owner of Time Warner and CNN), but primarily because it's a cheap stock. I don't think this is winner-take-all landscape however, or that we will reach some sort of steady-state after a year or whatever. Media companies have traded back and forth forever and the creative destruction process doesn't rest.

Alphaville
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by Alphaville »

My individual expectation is that national unity would further erode, risk of civil war would exacerbate, and I might now find myself living in a "shit hole country" where formerly unconscionable things become the new normal. This process has already begun but my hope was that it could be reversed. Doesn't look that way so far.

Not sure about antifragility but robustness would be to invest in Chinese stocks because they would be the main beneficiary of our decline, plus a store of value away from US treasuries into a basket of currencies like the euro, the pound, the swiss franc, the singapore dollar, the aussie, the yen, crypto, south african rand, plus various commodities. Yen might be at risk without US backing.

Mexico and Canada might fall with us or get a boost from conflict, I do not know.

This sounds like a nightmare.

Our enemies couldn't get us from outside so now they're helping us self-destruct.

sky
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by sky »

There will be a transition from USD to a blockchain cryptocurrency. There will be a large increase in prices of goods and services at the time of the changeover. Much wealth will be lost. Debt will be reduced. Wages will not increase.

Regarding a new media outlet, the question is, can it survive if it broadcasts fake news, or will it have to be truthful but partisan to attract and hold on to viewers.

bostonimproper
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by bostonimproper »

He might license out his name to a nascent news network or show up on OAN every once and a while, but I think two years from now people won't really be talking about Trump much. Like, he'll be around in the way Rick Santorum is, but will lose his large base of strong supporters pretty quickly.

IlliniDave
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by IlliniDave »

Sorry, tried to get through the interview, but TL;DR. Been listening to all kinds of wild hypotheses about DT the last few years. This one does not seem credible. I doubt he'll go away and be quiet, but I doubt he'll throw that kind of money into a vanity project with little hope of it being a business success. He's not as dumb as people like to think.

Worst-case he tries to hold onto his support to make another run in 2024 (which he should not do, IMO). That would primarily be fueled by Twitter, and maybe a sympathetic editorial stance at OANN.

I feel bad for the generations of small children who will grow up being told the Trump Monster lurks under their bed and in the dark corners of forests. Poor Boogey Man is going to find himself in the unemployment line.

white belt
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by white belt »

bostonimproper wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 3:51 pm
He might license out his name to a nascent news network or show up on OAN every once and a while, but I think two years from now people won't really be talking about Trump much. Like, he'll be around in the way Rick Santorum is, but will lose his large base of strong supporters pretty quickly.
I really don’t see Trump disappearing quietly. As Malmgreen points out in the interview, it is common for former Presidents to parlay their fame and experience into lucrative business after they leave office. For example, the Obamas have been very successful with book deals and speaking tours, because their audience skews more highly educated and academic. Trump already had a successful television career prior to holding office and he has proven masterful at convincingly spinning narratives to a large chunk of the population. Additionally, the issues that Trump panders to like de-globalization and anti-immigration aren’t going anywhere once he leaves office. 74 million people voted for him.

CS
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by CS »

There is a high chance he'll lose his twitter account rather quickly after leaving office. I'm not writing off the impact of that.

sky
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by sky »

Ego wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 12:44 pm
I believe it goes deeper than bubbles.

https://youtu.be/fh2cDKyFdyU
Oh...

Regarding my naive previous question in this thread: Never mind.

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Ego
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by Ego »

@Sky, amazingly that doc was made just before the 2016 elections when everyone (and I mean everyone) was operating on the assumption that Hillary would win.

In one of his last messages @ffj mentioned that he can no longer stand listening to NPR. I have to admit, I've had the same problem for about three years now. They seem to have adopted the same techniques mentioned in the Curtis doc but from the other direction. Not a good sign.

Alphaville
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by Alphaville »

Ego wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 7:09 pm
just before the 2016 elections when everyone (and I mean everyone) was operating on the assumption that Hillary would win.
i never operated on the assumption that hillary would win nor did i discount the risk that trump embodied if he got elected. then again, im not a tv channel.

i also don't underestimate the damage he might continue to cause in the service of his enormous ego.

he belongs in a banana republic and keeps trying to turn us into one. and he's got a sizable number of faithful believers.

that's not an insignificant risk.

bostonimproper
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by bostonimproper »

I don't think it's about Trump "leaving quietly", it's more about other news organizations not really taking the bait or seeing him as a point of controversy worthy of news coverage after he leaves office. Frankly, I don't think left-leaning audiences will care or want to hear about Trump, so imo "triggering the libs" will be less of a thing.

Alphaville
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by Alphaville »

bostonimproper wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 8:28 pm
it's more about other news organizations not really taking the bait or seeing him as a point of controversy worthy of news coverage after he leaves office.
news organizations don't have to cover him at all.

he used to rely on fox, but now that they disowned him all he needs to do is take his faithful with him and start his own parallel universe without any regard for facts or truth or anyone telling him no.

it doesn't take a lot these days with the internet.

i mean at this point he could even start a church and skip the taxes. he already had a foundation he used to buy himself stuff, so a church is not that farfetched.

e.g., this painting (or meme or whatever) is a few years old now: http://d.ibtimes.co.uk/en/full/1585080/ ... christ.png

and actual people do wear this shirt: https://i0.wp.com/marketmadhouse.com/wp ... =748&ssl=1

so... i see an opening in the american psyche for such things.

i'm not saying "this will happen," but some elements are already there.

here's another: https://mobile.twitter.com/AZGOP/status ... 1891452929

assuming his hardcore base is holding at 33% of the electorate, that's roughly 50 million people (the other 24mil who voted for him we can attribute to other reasons).

50 million. plus their kids.

do i want this? hell no. but it's there regardless.

white belt
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by white belt »

I agree with what @Alphaville is saying. Trump’s base alone would dwarf the number of primetime monthly viewers of Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC combined according to this:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/373 ... rship-usa/

Although, I really think Trump will focus more on an entire online platform since TV network news viewership is in the decline due to encroachment from other sources.

SavingWithBabies
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by SavingWithBabies »

Ego wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 12:44 pm
I believe it goes deeper than bubbles.

https://youtu.be/fh2cDKyFdyU
HD version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=to72IJzQT5k

IlliniDave
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by IlliniDave »

Alphaville wrote:
Mon Dec 14, 2020 8:45 pm
... start his own parallel universe without any regard for facts or truth or anyone telling him no ...
Sounds like my plan for retirement, especially the part that comes after I pick up my guitar. But my only follower is a deaf 17-year-old dog with poor eye sight. :lol:

Fortunately for my peace of mind I share none of your misgivings surrounding Trump. I think the vast majority of the 74M that voted for him will quickly move on with life. That's the thing with conservatives that people discount--on the whole they support the Constitutional system and now that the College has met/voted, Biden will be their president. Many aren't thrilled about that. A few might support Trump if he were to opt to run again.

Divisiveness is a bilateral enterprise, and until I see at least one side willing to step back from the precipice I'll believe it will continue. Some politics are absolutely predicated on it. What we need IMO is the rise of a viable third party with unity being a central theme of their platform. When people only have a choice between red-tinted divisiveness and blue-tinted divisiveness the one thing that's certain is that they'll get continued divisiveness.

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: Trump News Network: Implications for the Individual

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Regardless of how you feel about Trump, another opinion news station is not what we need. We really have enough talking heads trying to convince us of their point of view. What we need is more news organizations that just relays the facts.

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