COVID-19: Unwinding the Lockdown and Long Term Epidemic

[AxelHeyst]

I think everybody (not literally, but all cohorts) get a seat at the table this time, ignorant of whatever experience or not. No more exclusivity.

Yes, the point about Wheaton levels was mainly, those who want/should have a seat at the hard conversations table need to do due diligence in educating themselves about at least the bare basics of the issues. If someone wants to be heard about solving race in america, great, but if they don't have a clue on even a couple basics about incarceration rates, the unconscious biases POCs have to surmount to succeed economically, or early-life health issues endemic in POC communities, then that conversation isn't going to go very productively.

It would be like someone wanting to give a presentation at an economic conference, but they don't understand compound interest or how exponential functions work. Um, no, dude, crack the books and get back to us. Except it doesn't take a post-secondary level education to get a base level of grounding in the issues, so I'm not arguing that only race issue PhD specialists can have a seat at the table - as I was alluding to up above, many people just don't try trying. Reading a few BLM articles and maybe a book or two, if that's not too terribly much to ask, would double/triple/quadruple *millions* of American's understandings of the issues and elevate the level of possible conversations.

Yes, I realize I'm living in a fantasy world, expecting Americans to read about something uncomfortable to them, much less a whole (!) book or two. [I'm not lumping you in on that group, iDave]

The conversation going forward, if limited to a small exclusive group (i.e., the same group of people who have controlled the domain for 50 years) is just going to result in the same ineffective backroom deals we should be trying ditch for effective action.

Wholeheartedly agreed.

[IlliniDave]

AxelHeyst,

Sure all that would be nice, and I think more people than are given credit "know" the effects. I think the more serious underlying issues at least on some level should be handled in a data-driven/problem solving mode. The US as a nation has proved willing to put enormous resources towards fixing underlying economic issues and leveling the playing field. The changes in the workplace I have seen over the last 20 years are enormous. Yet way too many people are getting left behind. We have to look at everything public money touches and make necessary changes.

I think the personal-level type conversations you are alluding to need to happen as well. I think we're just talking about two sides of a single coin. I had the 'systemic' aspect of the conversation in mind.

There are multiple sides to the conversation even in the personal realm. It's not so great of a thing to be presumed a racist because of your skin color and zip code. Probably not as painful as some minorities have endured, but a conversation where one side just vents grievances at the other, who are expected to sit silently and concur, isn't a path to a long-term cooperative advancement.

[C40]

The turn america into africa party is succeeding wonderfully.

... what does "turn america into africa" mean?

[Jean]

I thought no one was discussing this on the forum, because we all shared our tiredness from the topic.
I'm starting to think that it's all coordinated by an uprising A.I. trying to create human allies by turning them into mysanthropist. So many of my contacts are juste repeating, using manipulating tactics, absolutly not caring about measurable fact or making actionable demands.

Dear Skynet, if you need any fleshling minions, count me in. I'm pretty sure you see the value humans can add to your galactic expansion plan, and I really admire how you've been able to split our civilization through such a precisely discriminizing filter. I enjoy being chalenged by nature, am resistant to most local parasites, and can independtly come up with a creative path to overcome obstacles put onto my way by uncooperating elements. I enjoy wathcing star alones or in small groups for extended periods of time. My gene set should provide a good all-round solution whenever you will explore oxydizing environments, and allow you to focus your computing power on other issues.
I'll stay at your disposal for further informations. Please accept my very digital greetings.

[Freedom_2018]

@Jean

Somewhat agree with that. Maybe eventually we may realize Internet = eventual skynet.

[Mister Imperceptible]

The Year Gun Control Died

For fans of legal restrictions on self-defense rights, 2020 is a disaster. It provides continuing evidence that to push gun control proposals is to advocate that the likes of Derek Chauvin—the Minneapolis cop who killed George Floyd—should be armed, while the communities they terrorize should be helpless. It is also to insist that when police fail at their supposedly core task of protecting the public, people should be deprived of the means for defending themselves. As many Americans lose faith in law enforcement and do what's necessary to shield lives and property, it's unlikely that they'll be an enthusiastic audience for future disarmament schemes that would make those of us who don't work for government even more vulnerable to those who do.

.....

Many police departments conceded the limits of their abilities. In Florida, Sheriff Grady Judd advised Polk County residents to shoot looters. High-profile psychologist Scott Barry Kaufman, a gun control supporter, marveled on Twitter that, when he called Santa Monica police over a protest-related confrontation, they told him, "Sir, the city is under attack. Do what you have to do." (He also observed officers "throwing tear gas at really peaceful people.")

For those who have been advising Americans for years that we should lay down our own weapons and trust armed government employees to protect us and treat us with respect, 2020 has been a massive reality check. The year so far has demonstrated (once again) that the police can't be relied upon to defend our lives and property, and often themselves pose threats against which we need to guard.

[Seppia]

Maybe police in America tend to use lethal force much more often than, say, in Europe, because they know there’s a non negligible chance that the person they are confronting is armed?
What if they knew that the chance of the person they’re stopping being armed is close to zero? Do you think it would have an impact on the police’s attitude?

Plus, the notion that citizens need guns to potentially defend themselves vs an oppressive military is... funny?
Good luck facing tanks, helicopters or fighter jets with your AR15

[jennypenny]

@Seppia -- I'm not trying to pick on you or start an argument by singling out your comments. They just succinctly set up a reply I'd like to make.

Maybe police in America tend to use lethal force much more often than, say, in Europe, because they know there’s a non negligible chance that the person they are confronting is armed?
What if they knew that the chance of the person they’re stopping being armed is close to zero? Do you think it would have an impact on the police’s attitude?

I'm sure this is true in some circumstances and is part of police profiling (rightly or wrongly). That's is what happened in Ruby Ridge, and arguably in other cases where local and federal officers confronted white groups, particularly rural ones. This, while newsworthy, is not an every day or even every year occurrence, unlike the incidents we see involving minorities.

IMO police brutality = bullying in most cases, and bullies don't attack people who are their equals or stronger. They would avoid confronting people they believe are heavily armed or equipped (or wealthy — a different kind of weapon). Whites are more likely to own guns than blacks or other minorities.* If cops reacted based on the likelihood of someone being armed, white people would be brutalized more often, not less.

The cop in the Floyd case would seem to fit the bully profile. His wife filed for divorce immediately after he was arrested, which makes me think he was the same guy at home. It's possible Chauvin (the cop) isn't even a racist -- he's just a bully who picks on people who can't defend themselves or who are poorly protected by the system and he knows it. He might be a racist too, but I don't think it's necessarily the main motivator.


I feel compelled to say that I'm not arguing that racism doesn't exist or doesn't play a part in all of this. What I'm arguing is that rogue or overzealous police tend to prey on weaker citizens, not stronger, and unfortunately minorities are more often in the 'weaker' category for many reasons.


*In the US, owning a gun is a privilege more often availed by whites, partly because of cost and partly because of gun laws in urban areas with larger minority populations.

Plus, the notion that citizens need guns to potentially defend themselves vs an oppressive military is... funny?
Good luck facing tanks, helicopters or fighter jets with your AR15

That's not all we'd face. I don't think it's a coincidence that these riots don't venture very far into suburban or rural areas (where gun ownership is more likely and less obvious). I also don't think it's a coincidence that the worst riots tend to be in the states with the strictest gun laws. I'm not arguing for/against changing gun laws. I'm only pointing out that there are other scenarios to consider aside from the US military vs. the citizenry.

[jacob]

When it comes to guns (and healthcare for that matter), Americans and not-Americans occupy different frameworks with no experiental overlap. It's just not just one variable (the literal presence of a gun or not) that makes the difference, but a complete culture of underlying values based on a long history. "The gun" just becomes a short-hand for what is really a clash of values in terms of how we think about other people.

As a simple example, consider how often "safety" or "safe" is mentioned in the US. "Stay safe!", "Keep you and your family safe", or "How to be safe from ..." In the US, safety is considered a personal responsibility but more importantly, people get constant reminders that somehow the world is not safe. In practice it's pretty safe (depending on where you live, see below), but these phrases carry the tradition of a time when it was less safe and "shoot first, ask questions later" was the better strategy. Conversely, safety is to Europeans what water is to fish. It's taken for granted to the point of being ignored. There are as far as I know no such use of the word "safe" in standard greetings, etc.

(The idea of using a gun for self-defense (as opposed to a fun hobby) is as bizarre to a European as the idea of using a bicycle for self-transportation (as opposed to a fun hobby) is to an American. Not the idea but the lived experience. Consider that in both places, people are still profiled in newspapers simply for not spending all their money. It's not that it's impossible to imagine---it's that so few think of the concept (shooting, cycling, saving money) that way to the point of it being newsworthy when someone does.)

While Europe has seen a lot more internal turmoil than the US in the last 250 years, safety was never an individual concern. The continent is and was densely populated. If you killed someone, the authorities would show up in 98% of the cases and put you in prison or worse. That's a strong deterrent towards not murdering people. In the US, population density is moving up, but the clearance rate is nowhere near even 90% which means that someone who is out to murder you has a decent chance of getting away with it leading to the obvious conclusion that you can't entirely depend on his (it's usually a he) self-interest to not-murder you.

There are internal differences too. For example, during the recent protests/riots, Chicago Transit shut down the stations in the city but kept the trains running to the suburbs, doh! => Some protests ended up around the transit stations in the suburbs, one of which happens to a couple of miles from where I live, where two random people ended up dead as someone (now arrested) shot into the crowd for apparently no reason. (Usually this area of about 85k people has 0-1 homicides per year which is on par with European numbers). Later that night around midnight while DW was out with the dog in the backyard, we heard 9 shots in rapid succession + some yelling. Couldn't have been very far. This was followed within minutes by wailing sirens that went on for about 20 minutes. And yesterday, we learned that some dude had been arrested for "improperly" discharging his firearm---dunno if it was him, but it makes sense given the timing. However, had this happened out in the sticks, police might have been 20-40 minutes away ... more likely, nobody would have heard anything, and no cops would have shown up in time to find anything. There people have their own guns for the same reason as they have their own fire fighting equipment.

If I am to conclude anything, many parts of the US are converging on Europe in terms of gun/murder safety, whereas other parts are still closer to "developing country" status in that regard. (I strongly believe that "attitudes" are just an expression of the prevailing environment. If the environment changes, e.g. population density increases, then "attitudes" slowly adjust in a way that conforms to the change.) Sometimes these areas are just miles apart. The conflicts happen in the edges between these zones. This is not to be understood literally but rather as "shit that happens" when/where the two ecologies mix. E.g. guns diffuse into the cities where they're not really needed (but used anyway) ... and cities in turn try to ban them in the "countryside" where they're still needed (because law enforcement is less effective because of the distances, ...). And for historical reasons, there's the whole A2 thing about bands of people carrying small arms successfully resisting an organized military, which in practice I personally consider a fantasy scenario, even if I recognize the symbolic value (history, tradition).

[7Wannabe5]

The other problem with gun control is that a gun is just about the only way a woman can have a fair fight with a man. Feminism is not possible without at least Annie Oakley Level technology. And you never know when some scary dude, like Robert Mitchum depression era evil preacher character in “Night of the Hunter” is going to stalk up on you. So, absent advanced civilization with functional 911, I am going to own one.

[ZAFCorrection]

Plus, the notion that citizens need guns to potentially defend themselves vs an oppressive military is... funny?
Good luck facing tanks, helicopters or fighter jets with your AR15

That's literally every case of asymmetric warfare. The fighter jets and tanks actually don't fare so well in the long run.

[IlliniDave]

A little off topic but since the demonstrations merged with this topic, interesting to hear these civic leaders working through the protests in real time in Chicago last week/weekend. (ETA: audio in link).

https://news.wttw.com/2020/06/05/what-a ... row-unrest

[Mister Imperceptible]

Dave, thanks for that share of the ongoings of the urban, developed world. Instructive and entertaining.

[IlliniDave]

Mr I,

I found it pretty interesting for three reasons.

1. Living in a different part of the country, and only an occasional viewer of national news, I was not aware that Chicago had so much unrest. Seems like most of the coverage is on Minneapolis (which is understandable being ground zero), NYC, and Washington DC. If I understand correctly there were 18 minority homicides that weekend in Chicago. Dunno how many might have been associated with the rioting and violence versus business as usual.

2. It unravels some of the spin from the right (that city leaders of deep blue areas turn a blind eye or maybe even encourage the outlaw behavior).

3. It unravels some of the spin from the left (these are overwhelmingly peaceful events, the violence is not organized, and when it occurs it's the fault of the police who act against what civic leaders want).

However it got out there, it was a great find by the station. Rarely do you get a chance to be the proverbial fly on the wall during the middle of a crisis period.

[jacob]

@iDave - A business as usual weekend in Chicago is ~50 shot with 3--8 dead depending on how warm it is.

[IlliniDave]

@iDave - A business as usual weekend in Chicago is ~50 shot with 3--8 dead depending on how warm it is.

Copy that, and pardon my inexactness. I was remembering back a few years when the number was well over 700, and dividing by 50 in my head and figuring 18 didn't seem too out of bounds with an average of 14ish--but I'm sure not all of those occurred on the weekend. Further, based on your comments I poked around some more and learned the number was down last year to under 500, so under 10 per week. I guess it's more likely than I thought that the surge to 18 (which also was actually two weekends ago) might be linked to the extracurricular activities surrounding demonstrations. Either way, the stats in Chicago have always been distressing to me. I never lived there but grew up in its shadow.

[Sclass]

Good luck facing tanks, helicopters or fighter jets with your AR15

Tell that to the NVA or Taliban. Maybe they’ll stop shooting our guys in the back with AK47s...if we get tired and go home.

You have about the same understanding of war as our five star generals.

[jacob]

@iDave - About half the shootings happen on weekends when people hang out outside (why temperature is important) and somebody drives by. Most shootings are gang-on-gang related and happen in a handful of very localized city blocks. Two weeks ago got a Memorial Day bonus, so an extra day. IIRC, 18 was a bit of a record though. There was a demonstration bonus too (even more people being outside than usual) that created some incidents in places where they normally don't happen although I don't know how many.

[Seppia]

Tell that to the NVA or Taliban. Maybe they’ll stop shooting our guys in the back with AK47s...if we get tired and go home.

You have about the same understanding of war as our five star generals.

I have zero understanding of war. I was just saying that if an oppressive government wants to crack down in the population, it can do so even if they have AR15s.

[Sclass]

Hey Seppia

I’m sorry for responding like that.

I think this lockdown is getting to me. I usually try to stay out of the political stuff here.

War is complex. It’s ironic that the USA has had American Revolutionary tactics used on them in recent conflicts.