COVID-19

[George the original one]

Imperial College London's R for the UK: ~3.5 at lockdown on March 24 and currently at 0.7.

Is it the most important number?

The reproduction number is one of the big three.

Another is severity - if you have a very mild disease that does not cause many problems then you can relax a bit. Coronavirus, and the disease it causes, Covid-19, is severe and deadly, unfortunately.

The last is the number of cases, which is important for deciding when to act. If you have a high number, but ease restrictions so the reproduction number is about one then you will continue to have a high number of cases.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52473523

[My editorial comment is that the USA is still producing about 200k cases per week, though slowly, slowly going lower. In other words, the USA generates more cases than the entire UK ever has, every week.]

[Riggerjack]

@ ego

Well, I'm starting to see the dysfunction beyond my bubble.

Inslee has just decided to extend the lockdown, waiting for the number of new cases to drop to zero, or maybe single digits. Or until there are millions of masks stockpiled, or maybe until the election.

But since he seems to have put his name on the lockdown, it is a fine position to hammer away at the Federal admin, blaming those guys for everything. Silly me, thinking there were problems big enough that partisan bickering might take a back seat. More the fool, am I.

Well, from a public health perspective, the lockdown was a good idea. Too bad it was handled by government... Maybe the Supreme Court will weigh in. Or maybe the shooting will start. Honestly, I don't know that any good news is coming anytime soon.

I think I will go back to the saner underbelly of the internet, and get back to my garden.

Thanks Jacob, being in a relatively good position here seems worth the effort. Much of that I learned here.

I hope y'all have fun out there, and be safe. Or not, if that's what you prefer.

[Jin+Guice]

Re: Unemployment numbers

Are the percentages quoted counting current unemployment insurance numbers?

Unemployment insurance is currently a fucking bonanza of free federal money through July 31st. Almost everyone I know is on unemployment. I am on unemployment even though I am a contractor who doesn't pay unemployment insurance and I still have a job (but I'm not working currently because of the virus) in an industry that is almost 100% immune from being axed by coronavirus in the long-term. The way the law is written, I should be eligible to receive unemployment insurance for losing 1 $2500 gig (music festival that is cancelled), even if I never stopped working my main job (and also if I start up again). Maybe they are calculated another way though?

[Jean]

It looks to me like a somewhat fairer way to do quantitative easing. I'm curious to see how it will turn out.

[thrifty++]

Unemployment insurance is currently a fucking bonanza of free federal money through July 31st. Almost everyone I know is on unemployment. I am on unemployment even though I am a contractor who doesn't pay unemployment insurance and I still have a job (but I'm not working currently because of the virus) in an industry that is almost 100% immune from being axed by coronavirus in the long-term. The way the law is written, I should be eligible to receive unemployment insurance for losing 1 $2500 gig (music festival that is cancelled), even if I never stopped working my main job (and also if I start up again). Maybe they are calculated another way though?

Govt has been handing out lots of money in NZ too. Although the govt in NZ is actually very cash flush for some reason so it might not be too worrisome. Lots of surplus. But they have been handing it out in pretty random ways. Mostly they have paid it to employers, and if the employers chose to receive it they are required to pay it to their employees and keep them employed or get prosecuted by govt. Quite smart I thought as a way to keep unemployment down and help business get through the rough patch to keep business going after that. But there is the usual unemployment benefit which has had a marginal increase. But really the unemployment benefit is utter peanuts compared to the huge cost of living here. I have no idea how people can survive on it. Well, I guess they don't, that's where there is so much personal debt and homelessness and substandard living conditions.

We haven't seen any unemployment numbers in NZ yet. But the govt stats are slow. I don't expect unemployment to get as high as USA here. Im expecting maybe 9% which is really high for here. But in GFC it was 6.5% at its worse. Unemployment doesn't tend to get as high for two reasons: 1) Its a big country for only 5 million people to run and manage so that soaks up a lot of people, 2) we have heavy labour laws here unlike the USA. Its very hard to sack people here and you are at a high likelihood of getting sued and if you get one little foot step wrong and you are liable to several thousands in damages. I think that disincentivises the wholesale dumping of employees that happens in USA. USA seems to have very little labour protection by comparison. I can see how there is mass dumping of employees there at a time like this. There is little disincentive against that.

[7Wannabe5]

I agree with J+G. My millennial kids and their friends are either still working because essential, working from home, or raking in large unemployment benefits.

The protesters in Lansing were mostly middle aged alcoholic innumerate anarchist racists. As in “Why should we be locked up because those people in Detroit are sick?” or “Finally! I get to march in mob into capital building open carrying my rifle. Dream fulfilled!”

[classical_Liberal]

A friend of mine just got called back to work at his boutique grocery store gig. He's pissed. Was making much more money not working.

[BMF1102]

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2 ... rages.html

7WB5 - Yes a militia was there but this article paints a different picture than you describe. If you approve of the Governors actions put together a group and throw a parade for her, such as South Dakota did for Governor Noem

https://www.newsweek.com/south-dakota-t ... ic-1500795

[7Wannabe5]

@BMF1102:

I actually watched the coverage of the protest on the local Detroit Fox affiliate news station. Every protester they interviewed seemed either idiotic or insane. My BF who is a stalwart Trump voting Republican is the one who referred to them as “alcoholic libertarians “.

It’s interesting that MLive which usually errs liberal was more neutral/positive in coverage (maybe give them enough rope?) I think even the Fox News team in Detroit metro knows that this shit is serious in our realm. The death rate from Covid in my zip code is close to 1 per 1000 general population. NOT 1/1000 infected or showing symptoms. 1 per 1000 humans living here now dead from Covid.

Last week the old guy who lives in the apartment right across the landing from ours was brought home by a team of paramedics. He was sitting on the lawn in front of the apartment building wearing a mask and the paramedics had to help him up the stairs. Our apartment complex is quite large and based on zip code data, I am estimating at least 80 people currently infected in complex. My BF goes out wearing gas mask he got while working as a military contractor in the Middle East and immediately showers upon return. Etc.

Anyways, according to Defoe, this is exactly how people acted in London during the plague, as it slowly made its way from parish to parish. The people in the parishes that were not affected yet felt like they were invincible- until they weren’t.

[fiby41]

8 states & 1 union territory free from corona (=no new cases in past 28 days.)

Everywhere else extension of lockdown for 2 weeks after 3th May (=upto 17th May.)

5 trains running from today.

[Jason]

This is one of the most articulate protests of the lockdown I have read. It's specific to Ireland but has universal application.

https://www.firstthings.com/web-exclusi ... other-word

Those needing to work and those needing to worship are often the same, but not always. They are often idiots (GI Joes and the bathed in the blood of Jesus folks) but not always. What does seem to be the case is that those who appear on television are always idiots.

[7Wannabe5]

@Jason:

Articulate, but based on false premise of “risk greatly exaggerated.”

Please note that the protests in my state are taking place while there are still roughly 100 people/day dying from Covid. Except for the average elderly status of those dying, it’s as if there was a massive school bombing taking place every day. People are just selfish and quick to adjust to any new status quo, especially if NIMBY quite yet.

I am also tired of these ridiculous arguments which frame people who have physical comorbidities as over protected by our society while simultaneously framing those who choose to commit suicide because they lost some money or a job as in need of protection. Like going into anaphylactic shock when exposed to peanut protein can be combatted with stoic philosophy, but people offing themselves is strictly numerical function of percentage unemployment.

[Ego]

@Jason, excellent article!

In the long run, domination requires not only the passive consent, but also the will to be dominated, a will eager to drop personal responsibility and personal effort. Broadly speaking, the dominated get what they themselves desire; the inner barriers of self-respect and self-defense may fall before power can really violate.

In the manner the tyranny evolved—without meaningful debate, without noticeable dissent, with a widespread instantaneous decline into levels of spying and snitching that had taken the GDR Stasi many years to perfect—it became something we did to ourselves.

The real problem is that when human societies lose their freedom, it's not usually because tyrants have taken it away. It's usually because people willingly surrender their freedom in return for protection against some external threat. And the threat is usually a real threat but usually exaggerated. That's what I fear we are seeing now. . . . Hysteria is infectious.

How is it that we have cultivated that characteristic, the will to be dominated?

[Jason]

I think the issue is the indecisiveness of taking action against the virus before it hit vs. the decisiveness in the response when it hit. Whatever your stance, the implications of such an unprecedented, massive move by the government needs to be openly addressed otherwise we are not a republic. And when there are "only" 63K deaths when initial models (US) predicted 200K, it unfortunately provides a basis for "risks greatly exaggerated" when viewed quantitatively.

For what it's worth, I agree with the shutdown but cannot help but think it is a result of failure. I also understand no one gets elected on protecting people against a crisis they never see because most people can't look at a shit hole and imagine a mansion. NJ won the "most Covid deaths" award on Wednesday. I just want to know the legal and ideological arguments against the shutdown because they cannot be discounted. I'm not sure where I land on the "fat ass" vs."broke ass" (jk) argument. Fortunately, I'm not either but I do oftentimes give it the John Rawls veil of ignorance treatment. And I am not without bias, as I do wonder if some of those protestors are essentially saying "Give me liberty, or give me money" who at the end of the day may have to settle for death.

[7Wannabe5]

This is a false dichotomy. As I noted previously, because I believe the risk is real, I requested personal leave from my job and was in no uncertain terms informed by my employer that I would have to resign. So, that is what I did.

I guess I just feel for those people working on pork processing plants who didn’t feel able to quit the domination of their corporate overlords. We live in a virtual oligarchy, with great deal of corporate and government collusion, so escaping dominance may often just be choice between frying pan or fire.

[jennypenny]

Mark Buchanon's take (author of Ubiquity): It’s 2024, and We’re Still Stuck at Home

Conclusion: [referencing the Harvard study] Overall, they found that even if we continue with strict social distancing, there's still a significant chance of a major new outbreak this winter. If it turns out that recovered individuals only have temporary immunity, the virus will probably enter into regular circulation, causing annual outbreaks. If there are strong seasonal effects on transmission, the wintertime outbreaks may very well be worse than the initial ones.

And social distancing, either continuous or intermittent, might be required into 2022, with ongoing surveillance through 2024. It's not at all realistic to think the virus will soon recede and disappear, letting us all go back to normal.

[Jason]

(@) 7W5

The concession not granted by your employer or the meat processing plant is IMHO, objectively unethical. Especially in light of the fact that certain prisoners were granted release based on the conditions they found themselves in. No one should have to choose between a job and a real, scientifically validated risk of death. That being said, you could quit, which from my understanding is the fortunate benefit of your preparedness/circumstances. Others could not quit, based on their unfortunate lack of preparedness/circumstances. On the other hand, some employees are not in position to force their employees to work and some employees are not allowed to make the decision between work and real threat of death. Its an ethical quagmire reflective of war conditions when casualties are discussed. And to the limited extent that I have thought it out, I find the co-morbid vs co-broke death projections to be just as ethically ambiguous because some are the results of poor genetic and others the results of cheese doodles. I think it was Barbra Eisenreich who said we should convert the fat pulled out from lipo-suction and convert it to fossil fuels although I know so little about health related issues that I don't know if she was being facetious. Bill Gates needs to wave a billion dollar bonus in front of the first person to find a vaccine.

(@) Augustus. You neither need to be a historian nor Nostradamus to have seen this coming. All you needed to be was alive in 2016 to become familiarized with the concept of angry mobs. That's why I said "settle for "death" because that is part of the calculus.

[George the original one]

Other people are finally beginning to see how overly rosy pictures have been propagated in the USA in the past month.

In light of a horrific April that saw close to 60,000 Americans lose their lives because of the coronavirus, bringing the national total to more than 63,000, it’s fair to ponder whether the U.S. will reach 100,000 deaths.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/when- ... r-BB13t9z2

Current USA death rate is 13,000+ per week. Death rate only has to stay above 10,000 per week for the USA to have 100,000 deaths by end of May. If it stops there, then the Trump administration "will have done a good job." However we know the deaths are not going to stop there as new infections are still running 200,000 per week.

[Jin+Guice]

Alright, let's all just take a deep breath and remember what we say about our thoughts and feelings on the internet won't actually effect policy decisions...


Here's what I think I know: The "correct" course of action was followed by very few countries who shutdown this disease early through heavy contact tracing and mandated quarantine. These countries acted and are 1) small 2) located on an island or 3) both. This was the correct course of action. The earlier action was taken the less expensive in terms of lives and economic damage. It will be "interesting" to see how these countries (and Alaska and maybe Hawaii) control reinfection, both in looking out for their own "patient 31" and in stopping transmission from the rest of the (mostly infected) world. IMO, the coronavirus problem and government response has mirrored our response to climate change on a vastly accelerated scale. Deny and politisize the problem until it's slapping you in the face, then pay the maximum price to respond poorly.

Somehow despite "teams of scientists working round the clock" we've collectively failed to have accurate estimates for the basic information we need to make the tough decisions we've forced ourselves to take. This information would be IFR, hospitalization rate, R0, number infected so far, and number currently infected. We lack basic descriptive stats to make decisions on.

So we face decision making under uncertainty. Initially, in my opinion, the risk of hospitals being overwhelmed was too great and too little was known about the disease to risk not locking down the economy. It is now my opinion that the risks to the economy are greater than the health risks so the economy should be reopened. I'm assuming the only goal is to not overwhelm the healthcare system. That is, decision makers have already decided that this disease is with us and that the vulnerable need to take measures into their own hands to protect themselves. If this is the strategy we are pursuing, it's important that we prepare for another lockdown, because we do not have enough information to know that it won't be necessary. For the record, I thought this was going to go way worse and that way more people would be dead by now, even with a lockdown, especially considering the USA lockdown is pretty half ass.

It would be great to have information on how density effects disease spread. If we believe the NYC death numbers (including presumed C-19 deaths) NYC is at ~0.225% of their entire population dead in less than 2 months. That's with a more extreme lockdown that started earlyish for the USA. That makes the initial estimate of 2.2 million dead (for the USA thats ~0.67%) by August with no lockdown seem possible.

"The economy" is now at the point that we were at with C-19 in March. There is a risk that things could go very badly, but a lot of reasons that they may not. I agree with those who are very worried about the economy that we are taking an extreme and unprecedented risk. I agree with those who are more worried about the disease that the economy seems to be doing better than expected (at least better than I expected) and that there are some specific reasons why the economic impact might not be as bad as the worst case scenarios predict.

1 add to my unemployment post above, there are also currently many jobs hiring in New Orleans (particularly in grocery stores).

RE: All models were wrong:

Weren't the original death projections for August? Were they for August 1 or August 31? Either way, 92 days is a long time in coronaland.

[George the original one]

Why are people still getting sick even though there's a shutdown?

State and local health departments do not publish the occupations and living conditions of everyone who tests positive, so there is no comprehensive analysis of who is getting sick. But interviews with doctors and public health officials, and data that has been made public, paint a portrait of a pandemic that increasingly is infecting those who have limited ability to socially distance.

“I had two people that work in a grocery store, one person that works in a day care and another person that works in housekeeping,” said J. Luis Nunez Gallegos, assistant medical director at Unity Health Care Upper Cardozo Health Center in the District’s Columbia Heights neighborhood. “They all had contact with a covid-19-positive person at work.”

When he told patients to quarantine, many replied that it wasn’t that simple.

“They are afraid of losing their jobs,” Nunez said. “They are anxious their employers won’t respect the quarantine, or that two weeks seems too long, and they don’t always have the savings to get by.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/nearl ... r-BB13qY6v