COVID-19

[steveo73]

That is not a cure. It is a delay. SARS was not cured.

Who cares ? If the virus disappears or you develop a vaccine the result is the same. You can beat viruses. That is what happened with SARS. It died out.

I think your argument is that this virus can only be beaten via herd immunity in that we have to let the virus go through the community and accept the losses. I don't think the issue is this black and white. I suppose it depends how you define herd immunity. I think you can socially distant people and let the virus run it's course and then slowly expand restrictions and do things like increase testing to minimize the impact to the community. I'm stating you can eliminate the virus. I suppose your argument is that you can't eliminate it but I don't think that is true. It's not about stopping the virus across the world. It's about stopping it in various communities and slowly expanding from there.

@ JL13 - My take is the approach I'm stating is the approach a lot of countries are starting with. It'll be interesting how long this goes on for prior to relaxing restrictions. I think the political and economic pressure is going to get too much to remain really strict for too long.

@ subgard - I agree that those appear to be the way to handle the situation along with border control. If you can stop the virus or really slow it's growth and then stop infected people coming in you can manage this until there is a vaccine (or something similar) or it gets under control.

[thrifty++]

you're describing an elimination strategy. The only western nation implement this is New Zealand. The rest of us are using a suppression strategy.

It's easier for NZ, they are an island nation (easy to lockdown borders), and have a population density of 46ppl per square mile. Compare that to NY which is 26,000 per square mile.

I remember looking at this item just a couple of months before the virus hit. It suggests that Iceland, NZ and Australia are the likely the safest places during a global pandemic. As it appears, that looks to be how things are playing out. https://www.sciencealert.com/if-an-extr ... you-can-be

[chenda]

@thrifty - I wonder how Iceland's supply lines are holding up, as it's so dependent on imports and has little manufacturing and agricultural capacity.

[Ego]

From the most recent TWiV:
https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-600/ at about 31:00

Allergy medications that involve nasal administered steroids (like Flonase) may interfere with the ability to control viral replication during the first week of infection with Covid. Those with allergies may want to check with their doctor.

Also, they are now trying to avoid using ventilators because they found that people do not respond well on them.

[George the original one]

State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Fri 10 Apr
- 10224 Positives
- NA Negatives
- 491 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 36 Adams (Ritzville)
- 5 Asotin (Asotin)
- 246 Benton (Prosser)
- 52 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 12 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 217 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 22 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 16 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 112 Franklin (Pasco)
- 111 Grant (Ephrata)
- 11 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 154 Island (Coupeville)
- 28 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 4241 King (Seattle)
- 129 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 13 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 12 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 17 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 2 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 19 Mason (Shelton)
- 15 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pacific (South Bend)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 884 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 13 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 173 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 3 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1798 Snohomish (Everett)
- 247 Spokane (Spokane)
- 6 Stevens (Colville)
- 81 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 20 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 252 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 11 Whitman (Colfax)
- 496 Yakima (Yakima)
- 764 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Hospital Reporting (all lab confirmed)
Apr 3 67 hospitals 596 COVID-19 patients, 222 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 4 52 hospitals 574 COVID-19 patients, 174 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 5 50 hospitals 581 COVID-19 patients, 178 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 6 78 hospitals 638 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 7 82 hospitals 641 COVID-19 patients, 190 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 8 86 hospitals 655 COVID-19 patients, 186 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 9 85 hospitals 649 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 10 78 hospitals 642 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU

Cases by Age
- 3% 0-19
- 27% 20-39
- 35% 40-59
- 25% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 0% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 0% 20-39
- 8% 40-59
- 37% 60-79
- 55% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 44% Male
- 5% Unknown

187 new cases.

State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Sat 11 Apr
- 10411 Positives
- NA Negatives
- 508 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 37 Adams (Ritzville)
- 5 Asotin (Asotin)
- 250 Benton (Prosser)
- 54 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 12 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 217 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 23 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 18 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 120 Franklin (Pasco)
- 115 Grant (Ephrata)
- 11 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 156 Island (Coupeville)
- 28 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 4422 King (Seattle)
- 129 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 13 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 14 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 17 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 2 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 19 Mason (Shelton)
- 14 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pacific (South Bend)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 898 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 13 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 176 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 3 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1844 Snohomish (Everett)
- 260 Spokane (Spokane)
- 7 Stevens (Colville)
- 81 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 21 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 258 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 11 Whitman (Colfax)
- 538 Yakima (Yakima)
- 619 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Hospital Reporting (all lab confirmed)
Apr 3 67 hospitals 596 COVID-19 patients, 222 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 4 52 hospitals 574 COVID-19 patients, 174 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 5 50 hospitals 581 COVID-19 patients, 178 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 6 78 hospitals 638 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 7 82 hospitals 641 COVID-19 patients, 190 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 8 86 hospitals 655 COVID-19 patients, 186 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 9 85 hospitals 649 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 10 78 hospitals 642 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 11 47 hospitals 527 COVID-19 patients, 166 COVID-19 patients in ICU

Cases by Age
- 3% 0-19
- 27% 20-39
- 35% 40-59
- 25% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 0% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 0% 20-39
- 8% 40-59
- 36% 60-79
- 55% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 44% Male
- 5% Unknown

[Ego]

Michael Burry of 'The Big Short" Slams Lockdown
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... tweetstorm

Burry is the guy from The Big Short who called the 2008 collapse. He is also an MD.

A more nuanced approach would be for at risk groups — the obese, old and already-sick — to shelter in place, to execute widespread mandatory testing, and to ID and track as necessary while allowing society to function.

and

I would lift stay-at-home orders except for known risk groups. We already know certain conditions that are predictive of severe disease. Especially since young healthy lungs tend to be resistant, I would let the virus circulate in the population that is not likely to get severe disease from it. This is the only path that comes close to balancing the needs of all groups. Vaccines are not coming anytime soon, so natural immunity is the only way out for now. Every day, every week in the current situation is ruining innumerable lives in a criminally unjust manner.

[HalfCent]

But aren't we seeing that hospitalizations cut across a wide age group and do not only hit those "at risk"? Seeing docs saying they are surprised at how many healthy people in their 40s and 50s are in their ICUs with this. Marathon runners, etc. Also, assuming we have elderly and infirm quarantined while everyone else is out and about, won't the surge from this alone crash the healthcare system?

[fiby41]

3,280,000,000 HCQ tablets available in the public sector,
2,650,000,000 HCQ tablets available in the private sector,
20,000,000 buffer stock under procurement for provisioning to private sector on a field basis.
Production capacity for HCQ is 40 tonnes / month which is 200,000,000 tablets of 200 mg each. Indian Drug Manufacturers' Association says we're self sufficient in both final products and raw materials for the drug.
India needs around 24,000,000 tablets/year as of date for malaria, lupus and rheumatoid arthritis.

Brazil invoked Ramayana, mentioning how Lord Hanuman had brought down Sanjivani (=rejuvenating) buti (medicinal herb) from the Himalaya to save the life of Lakshmana. Brazil is among the 13 countries receiving first consignment after the export ban of 25th March was lifted as well as raw materials for their own production.

[Seppia]

How long will Fauci last until he's replaced?

[2Birds1Stone]

How long will Fauci last until he's replaced?

By Dr. Oz?

[ertyu]

You know you're living in an alternate reality when that isn't even far from the imagination. A show host and another show host. They'll get together perfectly in charge of this thing.

Thank you, India, for the pills.

[fiby41]

Previous information has become outdated. Now only 5 of the 30 countries' requests're pending. There're side-effects when used with Azithromycin. US' FDA had banned largest manufacturer's 3 manufacturing and 1 active ingredient plant since 2016 so make what you want of it. Anyway unless one is a frontline high-exposure worker popping a pill for preventing purposes isn't recommended. Districts and states are being classified into Red, Orange and Green. 39 manufacturers currently in PPE production. No capacity for producing ebolavirus antiviral Remdesivir drug as of now.

[George the original one]

Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Sun, Apr 12
- 1527 Positives
- 28231 Negatives
- 52 Deaths

Cases by County
- 23 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 125 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 6 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 10 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 1 Coos (Coquille)
- 1 Crook (Prineville)
- 3 Curry (Gold Beach)
- 54 Deschutes (Bend)
- 14 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 4 Hood River (Hood River)
- 46 Jackson (Medford)
- 18 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 25 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 37 Lane (Eugene)
- 4 Lincoln (Newport)
- 52 Linn (Albany)
- 4 Malheur (Vale)
- 276 Marion (Salem)
- 5 Morrow (Heppner)
- 374 Multnomah (Portland)
- 30 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Sherman (Moro)
- 4 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 16 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 4 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wallowa (Enterprise)
- 10 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 348 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 30 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 36 19 or younger
- 167 20-29
- 236 30-39
- 284 40-49
- 268 50-59
- 266 60- 69
- 166 70-79
- 104 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 3 19 or younger
- 15 20-29
- 21 30-39
- 53 40-49
- 52 50-59
- 94 60- 69
- 71 70-79
- 50 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 359 Yes
- 1039 No
- 129 Not provided

Sex
- 835 Female
- 683 Male
- 9 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 325 Available adult ICU beds
- 20355 Available adult non-ICU beds
- 86 Available pediatric NICU/PICU beds
- 148 Available pediatric beds
- 760 Available ventilators
- 295 COVID-19 admissions
- 81 COVID-19 patients in ICU beds
- 52 COVID-19 patients on ventilators

57 new cases. Does not look like bed availability was updated.

Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Mon, Apr 13
- 1584 Positives
- 29537 Negatives
- 53 Deaths

Cases by County
- 23 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 132 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 6 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 12 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 1 Coos (Coquille)
- 1 Crook (Prineville)
- 3 Curry (Gold Beach)
- 54 Deschutes (Bend)
- 16 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 4 Hood River (Hood River)
- 47 Jackson (Medford)
- 19 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 25 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 41 Lane (Eugene)
- 4 Lincoln (Newport)
- 52 Linn (Albany)
- 4 Malheur (Vale)
- 280 Marion (Salem)
- 5 Morrow (Heppner)
- 398 Multnomah (Portland)
- 30 Polk (Dallas)
- 1 Sherman (Moro)
- 4 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 16 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 4 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wallowa (Enterprise)
- 10 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 360 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 30 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 38 19 or younger
- 178 20-29
- 242 30-39
- 295 40-49
- 276 50-59
- 275 60- 69
- 173 70-79
- 105 80 and over
- 2 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 3 19 or younger
- 16 20-29
- 21 30-39
- 54 40-49
- 52 50-59
- 99 60- 69
- 73 70-79
- 50 80 and over
- 1 Not available

Hospitalized
- 369 Yes
- 1065 No
- 150 Not provided

Sex
- 867 Female
- 708 Male
- 9 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 325 Available adult ICU beds
- 2035 Available adult non-ICU beds
- 86 Available pediatric NICU/PICU beds
- 148 Available pediatric beds
- 760 Available ventilators
- 295 COVID-19 admissions
- 81 COVID-19 patients in ICU beds
- 52 COVID-19 patients on ventilators

[jacob]

Now hiring: Contact tracers

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/13/cor ... t-tracers/

[jennypenny]

Aren't we in the middle of a census? I feel like somehow those two tasks might dovetail nicely if someone gave it a good think.

[George the original one]

One of my friends was doing the field census thing before COVID struck... haven't checked to see what he's doing now. Could easily see him switch to contact tracing as an interim gig.

[classical_Liberal]

I don't think...

You points are well taken. My point isn't that experts should be ignored and mis/uninformed laypersons should make all the decisions. It's that informed experts suffer from the same hyperspecialization that dominates the rest of our world. Additionally, they often have personal vested interests, financial or other, in the specific situations/specialities which they have spent a great deal of their life energy understanding. These people are not going to be able to grok the situation from a layperson's viewpoint, nor have the understanding of why priorities vary. Because to them, their speciality IS the priority. As it should be, for them. (see your personal frustration trying to teach ERE to Wheaton level 0). I do think they think of second order effects, but because their personal priorities are such as they are, those consequences may seem "less bad" to the experts than the layperson.

Using nursing as an anecdote, I can tell a patient exactly how they should live their life to maximize health with a given physical diagnosis. However, the real world application of this may not be possible for that particular person. They have a different world view, priorities, lifestyle, and understanding level. This is why it's important to identify the barriers to compliance, and try to find reasonable compromises to overcome them. IOW, the "right" thing to do, isn't always the "best" thing to do when dealing with complex humans. Better to do 75% "right", with 90% compliance, than 100% "right" with only 25% compliance.

[steveo73]

It's that informed experts suffer from the same hyperspecialization that dominates the rest of our world. Additionally, they often have personal vested interests, financial or other, in the specific situations/specialities which they have spent a great deal of their life energy understanding.

I think we now have proof in real time in relation to how to manage risks like this including global warming. We can see how specialists provide great advice based on science but the science is not a black and white issue.

We are not managing end of world scenarios. We are managing risks to society. If anyone has worked with risks previously it needs to be based on the likelihood of an event occurring and the damage if that event did occur. Those risks need to be looked at rationally and without the my opinion is right because my model is scientific.

Models are basically for all intents and purposes not deterministic science and you cannot trust them unless you have quality data and a very simple process. So we have to look at those models critically and then make decisions. I think the days of trusting the science in that this is the only truth are over.

[George the original one]

State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Sat 11 Apr
- 10411 Positives
- NA Negatives
- 508 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 37 Adams (Ritzville)
- 5 Asotin (Asotin)
- 250 Benton (Prosser)
- 54 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 12 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 217 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 23 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 18 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 120 Franklin (Pasco)
- 115 Grant (Ephrata)
- 11 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 156 Island (Coupeville)
- 28 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 4422 King (Seattle)
- 129 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 13 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 14 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 17 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 2 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 19 Mason (Shelton)
- 14 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pacific (South Bend)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 898 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 13 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 176 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 3 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1844 Snohomish (Everett)
- 260 Spokane (Spokane)
- 7 Stevens (Colville)
- 81 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 21 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 258 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 11 Whitman (Colfax)
- 538 Yakima (Yakima)
- 619 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Hospital Reporting (all lab confirmed)
Apr 3 67 hospitals 596 COVID-19 patients, 222 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 4 52 hospitals 574 COVID-19 patients, 174 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 5 50 hospitals 581 COVID-19 patients, 178 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 6 78 hospitals 638 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 7 82 hospitals 641 COVID-19 patients, 190 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 8 86 hospitals 655 COVID-19 patients, 186 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 9 85 hospitals 649 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 10 78 hospitals 642 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 11 47 hospitals 527 COVID-19 patients, 166 COVID-19 patients in ICU

Cases by Age
- 3% 0-19
- 27% 20-39
- 35% 40-59
- 25% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 0% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 0% 20-39
- 8% 40-59
- 36% 60-79
- 55% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 44% Male
- 5% Unknown

127 new cases.

State of Washington published count as of 11:59p, Sun 12 Apr
- 10538 Positives
- NA Negatives
- 516 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 39 Adams (Ritzville)
- 6 Asotin (Asotin)
- 261 Benton (Prosser)
- 59 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 12 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 221 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 24 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 20 Douglas (Waterville)
- 1 Ferry (Republic)
- 129 Franklin (Pasco)
- 121 Grant (Ephrata)
- 11 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 156 Island (Coupeville)
- 28 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 4517 King (Seattle)
- 128 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 14 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 14 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 17 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 2 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 19 Mason (Shelton)
- 15 Okanogan (Okanogan)
- 1 Pacific (South Bend)
- 1 Pend Oreille (Newport)
- 931 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 13 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 195 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 3 Skamania (Stevenson)
- 1876 Snohomish (Everett)
- 266 Spokane (Spokane)
- 7 Stevens (Colville)
- 81 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Wahkiakum (Cathlamet)
- 21 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 258 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 11 Whitman (Colfax)
- 573 Yakima (Yakima)
- 484 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Hospital Reporting (all lab confirmed)
Apr 3 67 hospitals 596 COVID-19 patients, 222 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 4 52 hospitals 574 COVID-19 patients, 174 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 5 50 hospitals 581 COVID-19 patients, 178 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 6 78 hospitals 638 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 7 82 hospitals 641 COVID-19 patients, 190 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 8 86 hospitals 655 COVID-19 patients, 186 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 9 85 hospitals 649 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 10 78 hospitals 642 COVID-19 patients, 191 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 11 48 hospitals 528 COVID-19 patients, 166 COVID-19 patients in ICU
Apr 12 43 hospitals 387 COVID-19 patients, 98 COVID-19 patients in ICU


Cases by Age
- 3% 0-19
- 27% 20-39
- 35% 40-59
- 25% 60-79
- 10% 80+
- 0% Unknown

Deaths by Age
- 0% 0-19
- 0% 20-39
- 8% 40-59
- 37% 60-79
- 55% 80+
- 0% Unknown


Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 44% Male
- 5% Unknown

[steveo73]

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-amer ... 54jka.html

Has anyone seen Trumps latest debacle. Does anyone on here support this guy any more ? He seems so freaken bad.