COVID-19

[thrifty++]

There is so many sources of information everywhere, its hard to know what to pick from.

[Sclass]

I don't think you understand China. My wife is a Chinese emigrant. They are DEFINITELY covering up, on purpose. They do this all the time, it's not a new tactic, it's the standard playbook. It's not a limit to testing.

Agree. Saving face is a big deal there. It is silly but that’s just part of the way things work there. Lower level party members will lose their jobs and get blamed. Reality will be hidden. Lies will be told. A similar kind of concealment of reality was the Fukushima disaster. The Japanese have a little of this mentality too.

The CCP is not innocent. No way. I sure as hell don’t give them a pass.

[ertyu]

there are police at the funeral homes that tell people to STFU or go to jail if they start crying.

I believe this. In the sense of, I believe that they'll put police to scare people into not throwing public tantrums, just get your urn and go in an orderly fashion and go sorta approach. I would also be intimidated in their shoes.

[Ego]

@7W and all....

The age & comorbidity related data has been scarce lately, at least publicly. I wonder why. These models are based on data. The better the data the better the model.

The guy in this short video is one of the co-leaders of the Spanish government's digital force to track and fight the virus. He has access to the most accurate data available. Please help me to understand how his suggested approach is wrong....

https://youtu.be/Pao4l22Fs40

[Bankai]

Please help me to understand how his suggested approach is wrong....

He's not wrong.

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” - the same applies to governments. "Fighting the virus" and "Saving Lives" looks and feels good to the voters and since all other governments are doing the same, you can't really go wrong with this strategy. Looks like Democracy has some weaknesses after all.

[George the original one]

Assuming 0.8% mortality and 17 days from infection to death, that gives the following estimates for true number of infections:
4/5: 1,843,245

Here are the reported hospitalizations for NYC:
4/16: 1,353,440

So between Apr 5 and Apr 16, they're out of hospital capacity and Trump's "they don't need 34,000 ventilators" is disproven.

[ertyu]

I think the way he is wrong is that he underestimates how dangerous the virus is to those under 40. But there are many under 40 who are at the very least overweight, or who are smokers, have undiagnosed comorbidities etc. Now, he assumes that once the old are out of the picture, the hospitals would be sufficient to deal with the young. But it might not be that simple because you can't cleanly sequester the old away.

Many old people live in multigenerational households, for instance. It isn't so uncommon in Spain - and in many other countries. Younger members of the household who go out to school and to work would still bring the contagion home and infect grandma and grandpa. Plus, old people would still have other health issues and might need to go to the hospital. Many old people are in assisted living, in old folks' homes with younger nurses, or have live-in caretakers who are young and go out for groceries etc. I agree that better services could be provided to the old so they wouldn't have to go shopping (e.g. grocery delivery etc.) But the solution isn't as simple as "just sequester the old," this thing is just too fucking fast-spreading.

[theanimal]

@Bankai and Ego

He is wrong.

He thinks the death rate is the only thing that matters. The hospitalization rate is still over 10% for every other age group. And I don't think it needs to be stated here, (but he stated otherwise in the video), the death rate is still far higher for younger people for this than the common flu.

For hospilitization rates in NYC see here or here

[bostonimproper]

@Ego I used to think it would be a good idea to do age-based social distancing but then it was pointed out to me that hospitalization rates are not as age-skewed as mortality, and a substantial fraction (about 1 in 50) adults 45 or younger end up in the ICU. Even if the elderly quarantine, if everyone else goes about their business then working age adults are still going to flood the hospitals.

Also note at some point when the hospitals are overwhelmed, the elderly get passed over for care versus the young, which boosts the difference in mortality rates.

Image

Edit: theanimal beat me to the punch

[jacob]

@Ego/Bankai -

FWIW, as one of very few countries in the world (the only one?), Sweden is actually carrying out your proposal, so you can see how it plays out in real time by following their numbers.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/

[CS]

I'm really curious to see if Sweden chickens out like the UK and the US did, or rides it to ugly end.

How much of that depends on the random roll of the dice of who close to the leader dies? Probably a lot.

[7Wannabe5]

@Ego:

I believe extreme isolation of older and vulnerable populations was one of the strategies suggested by Imperial College. However, as you may have noticed, in the video, he talks about the high risk for people over 65 (those likely to be retired from economy) and the low risk for people under 40, but neglects the plight of those in our age range who would generally still be quite active in the economy but would also be at quite significant risk given 1 to 2 % death rate (almost twice as high for men.)

I am personally quite willing to retire to remote woodland cabin if offered early retirement stipend of $800/month, but I do not believe many of my peers would be so willing.

[Tyler9000]

Coronavirus death rate is lower than previously reported, study says, but it's still deadlier than seasonal flu

How many people die after being infected with the novel coronavirus? Fewer than previously calculated, according to a study released Monday, but still more than die from the flu.

The research, published in the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, estimated that about 0.66% of those infected with the virus will die.

That coronavirus death rate, which is lower than earlier estimates, takes into account potentially milder cases that often go undiagnosed -- but it's still far higher than the 0.1% of people who are killed by the flu.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/health/c ... index.html

[jacob]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rus-crisis ... Now we're talking.

IIRC, Osterholm pointed out that any given hospital usually only carries enough body bags to deal with a major plane crash, that is, a couple of hundred.

[George the original one]

Coronavirus death rate is lower than previously reported, study says, but it's still deadlier than seasonal flu

I read the CNN article, but didn't hit the original report. The CNN authors make a distinction between catching "corona virus" and coming down with "COVID-19" that I don't think most of us do. Thus the two numbers added together seem to make more sense for us lay people and you end up back where we started?

[George the original one]

Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Tue, Mar 31
- 690 Positives
- 13136 Negatives
- 18 Deaths

Cases by County
- 12 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 50 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 3 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 1 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 24 Deschutes (Bend)
- 9 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 3 Hood River (Hood River)
- 21 Jackson (Medford)
- 10 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 5 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 16 Lane (Eugene)
- 2 Lincoln (Newport)
- 37 Linn (Albany)
- 1 Malheur (Vale)
- 141 Marion (Salem)
- 1 Morrow (Heppner)
- 116 Multnomah (Portland)
- 18 Polk (Dallas)
- 3 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 5 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wallowa (Enterprise)
- 7 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 186 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 16 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 13 19 or younger
- 72 20-29
- 96 30-39
- 130 40-49
- 135 50-59
- 120 60- 69
- 70 70-79
- 52 80 and over
- 2 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 0 19 or younger
- 7 20-29
- 6 30-39
- 26 40-49
- 23 50-59
- 40 60- 69
- 29 70-79
- 123 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 154 Yes
- 418 No
- 118 Not provided

Sex
- 378 Female
- 303 Male
- 9 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 280 Available adult ICU beds
- 2113 Available adult non-ICU beds
- 85 Available pediatric NICU/PICU beds
- 203 Available pediatric beds
- 749 Available ventilators
- 213 COVID-19 admissions
- 40 COVID-19 patients on ventilators

46 new cases. Oregon seems to have bent the curve so we're now going sideways and off the COVID-19 trajectory.

Oregon Health Authority as of 8:00a Wed, Apr 1
- 736 Positives
- 14132 Negatives
- 19 Deaths

Cases by County
- 13 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 56 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 3 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 1 Columbia (St. Helens)
- 27 Deschutes (Bend)
- 10 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 2 Hood River (Hood River)
- 22 Jackson (Medford)
- 10 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 5 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 18 Lane (Eugene)
- 3 Lincoln (Newport)
- 37 Linn (Albany)
- 1 Malheur (Vale)
- 151 Marion (Salem)
- 1 Morrow (Heppner)
- 134 Multnomah (Portland)
- 18 Polk (Dallas)
- 3 Tillamook (Tillamook)
- 5 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 1 Wallowa (Enterprise)
- 7 Wasco (The Dalles)
- 189 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 17 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 14 19 or younger
- 76 20-29
- 103 30-39
- 136 40-49
- 142 50-59
- 127 60- 69
- 77 70-79
- 59 80 and over
- 2 Not available

Hospitalized by Age Group
- 1 19 or younger
- 6 20-29
- 6 30-39
- 29 40-49
- 27 50-59
- 42 60- 69
- 31 70-79
- 25 80 and over
- 0 Not available

Hospitalized
- 167 Yes
- 471 No
- 98 Not provided

Sex
- 400 Female
- 331 Male
- 5 Not available

Hospital Capacity
- 291 Available adult ICU beds
- 2006 Available adult non-ICU beds
- 66 Available pediatric NICU/PICU beds
- 193 Available pediatric beds
- 762 Available ventilators
- 134 COVID-19 admissions
- 38 COVID-19 patients on ventilators

[jacob]

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u ... vation.pdf

All good stuff. Notice the posting date in the url.

[Ego]

The hospitalization rate is still over 10% for every other age group.

Asthma is extremely high in NYC among young people. At lease 10% in many communities. As is diabetes. Some younger people have hypertension, cardiovascular disease, or chronic lung disease as well.

How many of those young people who have been hospitalized have those comorbidities? How many don't?

This study (pdf) shows that 25% of the UK population to be in the high-risk group, though they consider those over seventy (not sixty-five) to be high risk.

That means that somewhere in the neighborhood of 75% of the population could restart the economy with relatively low risk. All others isolate. Together we support those in isolation and those who are taking care of vulnerable children in isolation. Right now those vulnerable people are going to the grocery store like everyone else. That seems foolish to me.

[thrifty++]

Asthma is extremely high in NYC among young people. At lease 10% in many communities. As is diabetes. Some younger people have hypertension, cardiovascular disease, or chronic lung disease as well.

Asthma is extremely common. Im wondering how much this correlates. I have the mildest level, intermittent mild asthma, so I am wondering to what extent this poses a risk for covid19

[Jin+Guice]

@Bankai & @Ego:

I think the video man underestimates the hospitalization problem and massive death problem. As the epidemic unfolds in our home countries it's clear that the system isn't set up to deal with this amount of death and illness. Now that we're starting to get into the teeth of this thing, I don't think people would tolerate the amount of death that's happening (will happen) once people they personally know get very ill/ die. I'm not sure how long they're going to tolerate this quarantine either, so perhaps the outcome of both scenarios is actually not so different?

Personally I still feel that the least cost in terms of both loss of human life economic destruction would be to either let the disease run wild or to enact an incredibly aggressive quarantine followed by contact tracing (see Iceland).

A third option would be a targeted approach like the video suggests. This is probably the most feasible since it most closely resembles the approach we are currently fumbling. It's of course possible that some brilliant middle approach would be the best choice. I think this is what the video man is getting at.

If we could mobilize the force necessary to deal with either of the extreme scenarios, we could mobilize a force to test widely, take some targeted action and deal with the repercussions of a period of massive death. Frankly I think we lack the cultural fortitude necessary for any of these 3 scenarios.




So.... Italy and Spain look like they're doing really bad with the U.K. and the U.S. (at least parts of it) on track to be equally as bad.

What's up with Iceland? They have so few deaths! I know they have taken great efforts to contain the disease and benefit from being an island, but how do they have so few deaths?

Sweden: The best case for this not being that bad or just lucky so far?

Germany and Switzerland: Why are there death rates so much lower among confirmed cases? Are they testing differently? Are they lucky so far? Something else?

Australia: Why is the virus spreading so slowly?