COVID-19

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jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

@Ego - Back of the envelope:

Suicides increases linearly with unemployment numbers. As an economist would phrase it, a 1% increase in the unemployment rate causes a 1% increase in the suicide rate. I do not know how instantaneous this effect is. Before coronavirus (BC?), tabor participation rate was 63.3% and the population was 327.3M, so 207.2M workers. Add an employment count of 3.5% or 11.4M. The number of unemployment filings just increased by 3M or so, so that's up by 3/11.4=26%. There are ~45,000 suicides per year, so adding 26%, we get an extra 11,800 suicides over the next year (or two?). In comparison, the expected death toll from not shutting things down is 327M*0.6*0.011 = 2.1M insofar 60% gets infected and we use the average death rate(*) of South Korea, Vo (Italy), and the plague ship. This is not counting additional deaths from an overloaded health care system.

However, these calculations are kinda tricky. Also consider how many lives are saved from avoiding car crashes during a lockdown? What the long term consequences of less air pollution are? It's a complicated matrix.

(*) I'd use twice that for an overloaded system.

Looking back, I think the perspective will depend on how early and severe the lock downs were. In places where they were successful, people will be wondering "why we had to kill the economy" since "nobody [they knew] died". In places there were too late or too lax, it will be remembered as something in between a domestic war and a depression with everybody knowing 1 or 2 people who died from it.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

jacob wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:38 pm
That said, serious people are looking into whether [chloroquine] actually [works] on corona ...
That's a negatory so far. However, tests are still ongoing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-in-study

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@Ego:

I am very, very sorry for your loss. I have experienced several attempted suicides in my family, so I know it is a trauma that never really heals.

The thing that is sad is that the shutdown of the economy due to the virus is inevitable no matter what. For instance, in my realm, it was the UAW workers who called for the plants to shut down last week, prior to the Governor taking action. There have now (already) been reports of two workers who have died. Also two Detroit police officers have died from Covid already (one was only 38.)People who do not have truly essential job will not want to take that sort of risk once reports of deaths at two degrees of separation start rolling in.

Of course, I may be biased, because I tried to take leave my job which put me in a sealed (no windows) room with 150 different students each day, and was told I would have to resign. So, the blade can cut both ways with employment pressures during this crisis. I probably left at least $10,000 on the table by putting my self into isolation a couple weeks early, but I am very glad that I made that calculated choice. MMV.

Tyler9000
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Tyler9000 »

jacob wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:34 pm
So far that's a negatory so far. However, tests are still ongoing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-in-study
Personally I wouldn't lend any more credence to the Chinese study that says it doesn't work than to the French study that says it does. The best we can say is that preliminary results are mixed and more data is on the way. This has got to be the most researched topic in the world right now, and I'm still hopeful that one or more treatment options will pan out.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

God I feel like I am going to get depressed being in quarantine for at least 4 weeks.

Working from home is way more difficult with all the inefficiencies. Taking a lot more time to do everything and a lot more stressful.

Is there anyone with positive news stories from countries dealing with things well in combatting the virus? I feel like NZ is doing well but I think that's our remote isolation and geographic advantage making it easier. Anyone else somewhere that it seems to be being combatted well?

Tyler9000
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Tyler9000 »

thrifty++ wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:57 pm
Is there anyone with positive news stories from countries dealing with things well in combatting the virus?
https://www.positive.news/

https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/

Jason
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »


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fiby41
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Re: COVID-19

Post by fiby41 »

A/B split testing. Russia and India both had about 600 cases when a 7 and 21 day lockdown was declared respectively. https://www.covid19india.org/
Using the data that unfolds we could formulate a linear programming problem to find the optimal number of days of lockdown in your country to balance between deaths, hospital capacity and economic impact.

Jason
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

fiby41 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:10 pm
Russia and India both had about 600 cases when a 7 and 21 day lockdown was declared respectively. https://www.covid19india.org/
Russia? Please. See "Chernobyl". I'd sooner trust Bernie Madoff's numbers. Funny how they have had a low amount of COVID-19 cases but a significant spike in pneumonia cases.

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »


chenda
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Re: COVID-19

Post by chenda »

thrifty++ wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:57 pm
I feel like NZ is doing well but I think that's our remote isolation and geographic advantage making it easier.
I was wondering if NZs isolation is something of a double edged sword as whilst it can probably control inflows better, is it not highly dependent on imported medicine and other essentials ? Does it have sufficient manufacturing capability to become self sufficient in things like ventilators if the supply lines are chocked off ?

nomadscientist
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Re: COVID-19

Post by nomadscientist »

jacob wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:34 pm
That's a negatory so far. However, tests are still ongoing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-in-study
This study seems almost meaningless since the sample size is effectively one:

"Of the 15 patients given the malaria drug, 13 tested negative for the coronavirus after a week of treatment. Of the 15 patients who didn’t get hydroxychloroquine, 14 tested negative for the virus."

If we do nothing we expect all but one person to recover anyway so we are only looking at the effect on that one marginal patient. There are all sorts of reasons one individual might not recover, regardless of what care they received.

HCQ might not work, and this shifted my prior in that direction, but not by very much.

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Stahlmann
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Stahlmann »

smart people plz share recpies for diy ventilators and reusable masks

SustainableHappiness
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Re: COVID-19

Post by SustainableHappiness »

Big news from Canadian Covid 19 Relief.

New $75 Billion CAD bill passed (that's like almost twenty bucks american), the biggest addition is:
To support workers and help businesses keep their employees, the government has proposed legislation to establish the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB). This taxable benefit would provide $2,000 a month for up to four months for workers who lose their income as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The CERB would be a simpler and more accessible combination of the previously announced Emergency Care Benefit and Emergency Support Benefit.

The CERB would cover Canadians who have lost their job, are sick, quarantined, or taking care of someone who is sick with COVID-19, as well as working parents who must stay home without pay to care for children who are sick or at home because of school and daycare closures. The CERB would apply to wage earners, as well as contract workers and self-employed individuals who would not otherwise be eligible for Employment Insurance (EI).

Additionally, workers who are still employed, but are not receiving income because of disruptions to their work situation due to COVID-19, would also qualify for the CERB. This would help businesses keep their employees as they navigate these difficult times, while ensuring they preserve the ability to quickly resume operations as soon as it becomes possible.
So it's for people who cannot get EI (i.e. small business owners, contractors, etc.)

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-fin ... esses.html

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

chenda wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:28 pm
I was wondering if NZs isolation is something of a double edged sword as whilst it can probably control inflows better, is it not highly dependent on imported medicine and other essentials ? Does it have sufficient manufacturing capability to become self sufficient in things like ventilators if the supply lines are chocked off ?
Im not completely sure to be honest. We are not a major manufacturing country. A lot of manufacturing is related to food type products. The govt seems quite confident about capacity to manage it, and I think they made a statement like being able to triple medical capacity. Could be bluff and bluster but current NZ govt doesn't tend to do that, unlike trump, rather they are managing expectations saying things like we should expect the numbers to go into the thousands before coming back down.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

I did something wrong in my quoting the past couple days, so starting fresh today and will try to correct the prior days. OHA has switched the age grouping to decades. [edit: prior days are corrected]

57 new cases today, about double the prior largest day, mostly in Washington, Multnomah, Clackamas, & Linn counties. Clatsop County announced a second case, but too late to show up in these numbers. Numbers on the web site took a long time to be posted today.

Oregon Health Authority as of 9a Wed, Mar 25
- 266 Positives
- 5476 Negatives
- 10 Deaths

Cases by County
- 6 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 21 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 1 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 10 Deschutes (Bend)
- 3 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 1 Hood River (Hood River)
- 4 Jackson (Medford)
- 2 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 5 Lane (Eugene)
- 1 Lincoln (Newport)
- 25 Linn (Albany)
- 43 Marion (Salem)
- 33 Multnomah (Portland)
- 3 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 96 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 7 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 5 19 or younger
- 15 20-29
- 32 30-39
- 55 40-49
- 42 50-59
- 57 60- 69
- 34 70-79
- 25 80 and over
- 1 Not available

Hospitalized
- 75 Yes
- 135 No
- 56 Not provided

Sex
- 142 Male
- 123 Male
- 1 Not available
Last edited by George the original one on Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:18 pm, edited 3 times in total.

Gilberto de Piento
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Gilberto de Piento »

Stahlmann wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm
smart people plz share recpies for diy ventilators and reusable masks
There is a lot of info out there about handmade cloth masks. Apparently they are better than nothing. It sounds like a DIY ventilator is not realistic though.

1taskaday
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 1taskaday »

Just heard a snapshot sentence from an interview with a
Dr.Garret A.Fitzgerald,Perelman school of medicine, University of Pennsylvania.

He said they will be screening 5,000 people for Coronovirus antibodies next week.

Can't find any other information on the internet on this...has anyone any links/knowledge on this?

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

NYC ICU capacity expected to be exceeded this Friday (3/27)

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... itals.html

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

Jason wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:15 pm
Russia? Please. See "Chernobyl". I'd sooner trust Bernie Madoff's numbers.
It's not just Russia. I suspect the whole of Middle-Eastern and Eastern Europe has no idea what is happening within their borders. Some anecdotes from Poland (officially only c. 1k cases):

- Since the country is totally not prepared hospitals ordered some masks from abroad but these were stopped at the border and confiscated by the army

- Old folks who die at home from pneumonia/breathing difficulties are not tested (and neither are their families) and the official cause is reported as 'suffocation'; similarly many who end up in the hospital are not tested; some people are not isolated even in hospitals

- Disinformation & contradictory advice at all levels; someone called with symptoms after returning from the high-risk country and was asked which border crossing they used & was then told they need to go back and come through a different crossing so they can be tested there

- One government minister was already diagnosed with COVID-19 but the cabinet continued to meet in person; now 15 government ministers are being quarantined

- Presidential elections are still going ahead because while it's still early stages of epidemic in Poland, the governing party hopes to win the election before the situation deteriorates ('stay at home but go to vote')

- Religious gatherings were never canceled and initially encouraged to 'pray for the sick' (there are hundreds/thousands on each mass in Poland); now there's a limit of how many people can participate

- TV reports that the Polish government is receiving regular calls from other European governments praising their actions and asking for advice on how to fight the virus

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