COVID-19

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EdithKeeler
Posts: 1099
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2013 7:55 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by EdithKeeler »

Anyone have an opinion on the malaria drugs that are being discussed as treatment? One of my friends who was an early warner of the virus has been talking about them for about a week. It doesn't look like any real studies have been done, but all preliminary results look promising. Now that Trump mentioned them, they are politicized and true information will be increasingly difficult to obtain.
They weren’t promising for this moron:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytime ... s.amp.html

Dream of Freedom
Posts: 753
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:58 pm
Location: Nebraska, US

Re: COVID-19

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Here is the paper by Dr. Didier Raoult (one of the docs pushing for hydroxychloroquine). I haven't finished reading it yet, but I thought I'd show it to the old think tank.

https://umsu.ac.ir/uploads/229.pdf

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Ego
Posts: 6359
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:42 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

jacob wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:53 pm
It's conceivable that governments think this is an excellent opportunity to drive through some measures that would otherwise be impossible or at least shift the Overton window. However, how can they be sure that it is they who will be the one's implementing their vision at the end of the day.
While I agree that they may not be the ones implementing their vision I have to wonder if they have the foresight to imagine that as a possibility.

George the original one
Posts: 5404
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:50 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Mon, Mar 23
- 191 Positives
- 3649 Negatives
- 5 Deaths

Cases by County
- 4 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 14 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 10 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 1 Hood River (Hood River)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 4 Lane (Eugene)
- 20 Linn (Albany)
- 30 Marion (Salem)
- 21 Multnomah (Portland)
- 3 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 69 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 6 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 4 17 or younger
- 5 18-24
- 15 25-34
- 64 35-54
- 103 55+

Hospitalized
- 56 Yes
- 106 No
- 29 Not provided
18 new cases. As mentioned earlier, added Clatsop County. 36% of cases still from Washington County.

Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Tue, Mar 24
- 209 Positives
- 4350 Negatives
- 8 Deaths

Cases by County
- 4 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 17 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 1 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 10 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 1 Hood River (Hood River)
- 3 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 4 Lane (Eugene)
- 20 Linn (Albany)
- 32 Marion (Salem)
- 25 Multnomah (Portland)
- 3 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 76 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 6 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 4 17 or younger
- 6 18-24
- 18 25-34
- 72 35-54
- 109 55+

Hospitalized
- 61 Yes
- 117 No
- 31 Not provided
Last edited by George the original one on Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

OTCW
Posts: 437
Joined: Thu Mar 31, 2011 12:55 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by OTCW »

I'm cautiously optimistic on this while being damn cautious about it.

Enjoying being able to work from home. Hate it for the people who can't work period but really need to.

Jin+Guice
Posts: 1279
Joined: Sat Jun 30, 2018 8:15 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

@jacob and @Ego

Re: Government abuse of traumatic times:

https://www.amazon.com/Shock-Doctrine-R ... 0312427999


Obviously politicized and I'm not saying it's true or I agree with her, but that's the thesis of Klein's book.

George the original one
Posts: 5404
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Washington state has not updated their COVID web page today. News organizations are still quoting yesterday's numbers.

Edit: and then it appeared.

George the original one
Posts: 5404
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:30 pm
State of Washington published count as of 3:00p Mon, 23 Mar
- 2221 Positives
- 31712 Negatives
- 110 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 1 Adams (Ritzville)
- 7 Benton (Prosser)
- 6 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 4 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 13 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 3 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 1 Douglas (Waterville)
- 3 Franklin (Pasco)
- 23 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 25 Island (Coupeville)
- 7 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1170 King (Seattle)
- 18 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 5 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 4 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 2 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 1 Mason (Shelton)
- 126 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 1 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 45 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 519 Snohomish (Everett)
- 29 Spokane (Spokane)
- 1 Stevens (Colville)
- 11 Thurston (Olympia)
- 1 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 48 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 2 Whitman (Colfax)
- 25 Yakima (Yakima)
- 117 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 9% 20-29
- 14% 30-39
- 13% 40-49
- 17% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 14% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 4% Unknown
248 new cases. Negative test numbers were not updated today; Deaths by Age and Deaths by Gender did not change, so difficult to tell if they were updated today.

State of Washington published count as of 3:00p Tue, 24 Mar
- 2469 Positives
- 31712 Negatives
- 123 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 1 Adams (Ritzville)
- 12 Benton (Prosser)
- 6 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 4 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 16 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 3 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 2 Douglas (Waterville)
- 7 Franklin (Pasco)
- 27 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 29 Island (Coupeville)
- 8 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1277 King (Seattle)
- 20 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 18 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 6 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 2 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 2 Mason (Shelton)
- 138 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 1 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 48 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 614 Snohomish (Everett)
- 33 Spokane (Spokane)
- 1 Stevens (Colville)
- 14 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 64 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 2 Whitman (Colfax)
- 44 Yakima (Yakima)
- 65 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 9% 20-29
- 14% 30-39
- 13% 40-49
- 17% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 14% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 4% Unknown

George the original one
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Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Honesty time: Trump can't open the economy by Easter because Trump didn't shut it down. Fact is, apart from closing borders to a handful of countries, Trump hasn't shut anything down. State governors, county commissioners, and mayors are the ones in the driving seat right now when it comes to the economy.

ertyu
Posts: 2893
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

This is what saves the US right now. It all being down to local authorities doesn't make for swift or coordinated decision-making, but it does take it out of Trump's hands thus preventing the country from suffering even further idiocy.

classical_Liberal
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Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:05 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

Almost seems as if the constitutional separation of powers, limiting federal gov't control was a good idea? Who would've thunk it? ... :lol: sorry, continue on.

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Ego
Posts: 6359
Joined: Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:42 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Those of us not directly experiencing the ravages of Covid-19 first-hand may find it hard to accurately grasp the danger and may be prone to underestimate it.

Those of us not directly experiencing the ravages of the economy first-hand may find it hard to accurately grasp the danger and may be prone to underestimate it.

I've got a building full of people, most of whom live alone. Not 100%, but most. Some are doing okay, but many of those who live alone are losing their minds. Some are terrified of the virus. Some are terrified because they lost their income.

The stage is set. Same plot, different play. It won't be long until they are pitted against one another.

Tyler9000
Posts: 1758
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:45 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Tyler9000 »

George the original one wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:30 pm
Honesty time: Trump can't open the economy by Easter because Trump didn't shut it down. Fact is, apart from closing borders to a handful of countries, Trump hasn't shut anything down. State governors, county commissioners, and mayors are the ones in the driving seat right now when it comes to the economy.
Yep! And we should similarly trust local authorities when they also decide to open things up. ;)

Putting politics completely aside, I personally think a lot of the angst between people arguing about solutions is that some people have a very tough time understanding that the country is not homogeneous. For example, something like 200 of the 254 counties in Texas have zero cases of COVID-19, so a hard statewide or nationwide shutdown would do more harm than good in those areas. But lock down New York City? Absolutely. It's a big country, and not every course of action is one-size-fits-all.

My personal guess is that the eventual way out will come in stages. The major cities with huge outbreaks may stay on hard lockdown for months, perhaps with new travel restrictions that prevent people from leaving (it's already moving that direction today with Florida requiring anyone arriving to NY to go into a mandatory 2-week quarantine). But once we have enough testing and mitigation strategies (masks, hydrochloroquine, antibody tests, etc), a lot of the rest of the country will be able to reopen for business and sustainably manage new cases as they come.

We're definitely not there yet, but I'm hopeful that it won't take as long as some people are saying by only looking at the very worst cases.
Last edited by Tyler9000 on Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

slowtraveler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by slowtraveler »

I think this is way overblown. I know tons of people who've had fever, diahrrea, and cough simultaneously since this started. In Thailand, they simply weren't testing much in January. Why would they want to deter tourism?

I met entire families who got it. Everybody from Grandma to the newborns to the distant cousin's was coughing a storm for about 5 days. They eat shared bowls of sticky rice and local frogs, rats, chicken, fish, or mushrooms with their hands. Of course everybody gets sick when their offspring come home from working in Bangkok.

Even 70 year olds in a rural village didn't get serious symptoms. Considering how widespread this is, I don't think mortality rate is even .7%.

This quarantine thing is like killing an ant with a sledgehammer.

And still, my ultra careful self is under a 2 week self quarantine on the infinitesimal chance I'm wrong and this disease is an old people killer. But it's not what I saw. Dozens of people sick, mostly 40+ who've accumulated health conditions from cancers to chronic bronchitis to liver/lung flukes. And nobody needed even hospitalization.

This could just be an attempt for a country to change the geopolitical landscape or to let us get a sale on stock.

Tyler9000
Posts: 1758
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:45 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by Tyler9000 »

Ego wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:43 pm
The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.
Thanks for sharing that. Very interesting.

classical_Liberal
Posts: 2283
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:05 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

Ego wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:43 pm
...
Agreed, interesting.

What we really need is a mass produced antibody test. This would allow folks to go back to work and start the economy back up, if shown to have antibodies. It would be invaluable in healthcare, because folks with antibodies could staff the COVID-19 units/hospitals without using all the airborne PPE.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03 ... s-pandemic

thrifty++
Posts: 1171
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 3:46 pm

Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

NZ has 205 cases now. But for some reason the govt is reporting both the confirmed cases and the probable cases and lumping them all in together.

Im partly wondering whether the govt is doing this because we have introduced some very extreme measures and there is a desire for backing.

Hopefully this quarantine works. The govt has commented that they think the cases will probably run into the thousands before they drop.

The good thing is that not one of those cases is or has been serious or critical. There have been people in hospital but I think that's just the triaging system. The govt wants to avoid people going to GP clinics so GPs are directing them to hospitals. People are asked to call the GP first or someone meets you at the entrance wearing full gear asking about your symptoms before letting you in. Most GP consults are now being done by video conference.

Partly the large number of tests is due also to an aggressive testing regime. Whereas I notice in lots of countries reporting less cases they seem to have lots of deaths and serious/critical cases - so they are only touching the tip of the ice berg.

Will
Posts: 79
Joined: Sun Dec 25, 2016 5:23 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Will »

@slowtraveler: I would be very careful with mistaking anecdotal evidence for statistical facts, this can be deadly with this disease.
@ego: I have a very hard time connecting the hospital overload in Italy (and now also in Spain?) with the claim that half the population in the UK could already be infected. In the Netherlands hospitals are rapidly filling up and they're expecting they will be full around the beginning of next week. This would mean that some factor must be dramatically different in the UK. Mutation? Until we know this I think it is dangerous to assume that 'this time it's different'.

The US and the UK are going through exactly the same phases as we had in our country, and Italy as well in theirs. Coupled with the lack of decentralized response in the US, we have no reason to believe that COVID-19 will not hit the US and the UK as hard as it did in mainland Europe.

7Wannabe5
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Re: COVID-19

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

The metro Detroit hospital system which keeps its own statistics announced that it is almost at ICU capacity already. There are many rural counties with at least a few positive tests. We are finally locked down, but I am very concerned about the situation two weeks from now. We may end up as the red-headed stepchild after NYC.

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

Harari on possible consequences of current pandemic:

https://www.ft.com/content/19d90308-685 ... V9z-10e6JY

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