COVID-19

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Dream of Freedom »

There are some interesting cultural innovations going on with social distancing. :?
Small Nebraska town gathers by 'cruising,' honking, playing music The town of Oakland, Nebraska, "wanted to get out of the house in a safe way.
A video sent to KETV shows people driving past each other, honking and playing music.

"This is what you do in a small town when you got coronavirus going on, whole town just comes out and cruises, social distancing," the driver is heard saying.
https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEA ... id=US%3Aen

Jason
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jason »

I imagine when this inevitably turns to road rage they'll jump out of their pick-up trucks and take baseball bats to each other's shadows.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

1taskaday wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:08 am
50% of people who tested "positive" had no symptoms.
That jives with what I've been seeing in Oregon numbers, where testing is limited. I suspect "postive, no symptoms" becomes "positive, with symptoms", but they recover in a week, like bigato.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

jacob wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:13 am
@Zanka - That sounds very much like the UK/US strategy until https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf came out and changed their respective policies drastically after learning that the death toll would be in the millions.

FT but no paywall: https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd ... bea055720b

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.

The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta. 
Is it possible that the US/UK strategy didn't shift because of the Imperial College model but because they realized the vast opportunity this presented to reshape society (never let a crisis go to waste) if they shut down?

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Ego wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:43 pm
Is it possible that the US/UK strategy didn't shift because of the Imperial College model but because they realized the vast opportunity this presented to reshape society (never let a crisis go to waste) if they shut down?
I've seen that one before. Never miss the opportunity of a good crisis. The problem I have with that is that everyone who presents it seem to have their own idea of what society will be shaped into now that "covid has made everything clear". For example, green optimists think that this will be the point where "humans realize all the horrible ways we've been hurting the planet and commence on a gentler path of respect for each other and nature". Yet, on the other hand national populists would say that "this is why globalism has failed and why we need to close down borders and move manufacturing of critical supplies back to the homeland". It's conceivable that governments think this is an excellent opportunity to drive through some measures that would otherwise be impossible or at least shift the Overton window. However, how can they be sure that it is they who will be the one's implementing their vision at the end of the day.

Jin+Guice
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

Anyone have an opinion on the malaria drugs that are being discussed as treatment? One of my friends who was an early warner of the virus has been talking about them for about a week. It doesn't look like any real studies have been done, but all preliminary results look promising. Now that Trump mentioned them, they are politicized and true information will be increasingly difficult to obtain.

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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

@J+G - Darwin award candidates have already died or overdosed from self-medicating on them. That said, serious people are looking into whether they actually work on corona even if they can't cure stupidity. A side-effect of a certain genius promoting them as a cure has vacuumed the market thus reducing the ability to treat diseases where they've been proven to work such as malaria and lupus.

EdithKeeler
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Re: COVID-19

Post by EdithKeeler »

Anyone have an opinion on the malaria drugs that are being discussed as treatment? One of my friends who was an early warner of the virus has been talking about them for about a week. It doesn't look like any real studies have been done, but all preliminary results look promising. Now that Trump mentioned them, they are politicized and true information will be increasingly difficult to obtain.
They weren’t promising for this moron:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytime ... s.amp.html

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Here is the paper by Dr. Didier Raoult (one of the docs pushing for hydroxychloroquine). I haven't finished reading it yet, but I thought I'd show it to the old think tank.

https://umsu.ac.ir/uploads/229.pdf

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

jacob wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:53 pm
It's conceivable that governments think this is an excellent opportunity to drive through some measures that would otherwise be impossible or at least shift the Overton window. However, how can they be sure that it is they who will be the one's implementing their vision at the end of the day.
While I agree that they may not be the ones implementing their vision I have to wonder if they have the foresight to imagine that as a possibility.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:50 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Mon, Mar 23
- 191 Positives
- 3649 Negatives
- 5 Deaths

Cases by County
- 4 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 14 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 10 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 1 Hood River (Hood River)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 4 Lane (Eugene)
- 20 Linn (Albany)
- 30 Marion (Salem)
- 21 Multnomah (Portland)
- 3 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 69 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 6 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 4 17 or younger
- 5 18-24
- 15 25-34
- 64 35-54
- 103 55+

Hospitalized
- 56 Yes
- 106 No
- 29 Not provided
18 new cases. As mentioned earlier, added Clatsop County. 36% of cases still from Washington County.

Oregon Health Authority as of 8a Tue, Mar 24
- 209 Positives
- 4350 Negatives
- 8 Deaths

Cases by County
- 4 Benton (Corvallis) - Note two are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 17 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 1 Clatsop (Astoria)
- 10 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 1 Grant (Canyon City)
- 1 Hood River (Hood River)
- 3 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Josephine (Grants Pass)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 4 Lane (Eugene)
- 20 Linn (Albany)
- 32 Marion (Salem)
- 25 Multnomah (Portland)
- 3 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 1 Union (La Grande)
- 76 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 6 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 4 17 or younger
- 6 18-24
- 18 25-34
- 72 35-54
- 109 55+

Hospitalized
- 61 Yes
- 117 No
- 31 Not provided
Last edited by George the original one on Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

OTCW
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Re: COVID-19

Post by OTCW »

I'm cautiously optimistic on this while being damn cautious about it.

Enjoying being able to work from home. Hate it for the people who can't work period but really need to.

Jin+Guice
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Jin+Guice »

@jacob and @Ego

Re: Government abuse of traumatic times:

https://www.amazon.com/Shock-Doctrine-R ... 0312427999


Obviously politicized and I'm not saying it's true or I agree with her, but that's the thesis of Klein's book.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Washington state has not updated their COVID web page today. News organizations are still quoting yesterday's numbers.

Edit: and then it appeared.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:30 pm
State of Washington published count as of 3:00p Mon, 23 Mar
- 2221 Positives
- 31712 Negatives
- 110 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 1 Adams (Ritzville)
- 7 Benton (Prosser)
- 6 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 4 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 13 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 3 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 1 Douglas (Waterville)
- 3 Franklin (Pasco)
- 23 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 25 Island (Coupeville)
- 7 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1170 King (Seattle)
- 18 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 5 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 4 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 2 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 1 Mason (Shelton)
- 126 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 1 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 45 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 519 Snohomish (Everett)
- 29 Spokane (Spokane)
- 1 Stevens (Colville)
- 11 Thurston (Olympia)
- 1 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 48 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 2 Whitman (Colfax)
- 25 Yakima (Yakima)
- 117 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 9% 20-29
- 14% 30-39
- 13% 40-49
- 17% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 14% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 4% Unknown
248 new cases. Negative test numbers were not updated today; Deaths by Age and Deaths by Gender did not change, so difficult to tell if they were updated today.

State of Washington published count as of 3:00p Tue, 24 Mar
- 2469 Positives
- 31712 Negatives
- 123 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 1 Adams (Ritzville)
- 12 Benton (Prosser)
- 6 Chelan (Wenatchee)
- 4 Clallam (Port Angeles)
- 16 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 3 Cowlitz (Kelso)
- 2 Douglas (Waterville)
- 7 Franklin (Pasco)
- 27 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 29 Island (Coupeville)
- 8 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 1277 King (Seattle)
- 20 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 18 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 6 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 2 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 2 Mason (Shelton)
- 138 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 1 San Juan (Friday Harbor)
- 48 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 614 Snohomish (Everett)
- 33 Spokane (Spokane)
- 1 Stevens (Colville)
- 14 Thurston (Olympia)
- 2 Walla Walla (Walla Walla)
- 64 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 2 Whitman (Colfax)
- 44 Yakima (Yakima)
- 65 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 9% 20-29
- 14% 30-39
- 13% 40-49
- 17% 50-59
- 16% 60-69
- 15% 70-79
- 14% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 4% Unknown

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Honesty time: Trump can't open the economy by Easter because Trump didn't shut it down. Fact is, apart from closing borders to a handful of countries, Trump hasn't shut anything down. State governors, county commissioners, and mayors are the ones in the driving seat right now when it comes to the economy.

ertyu
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Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

This is what saves the US right now. It all being down to local authorities doesn't make for swift or coordinated decision-making, but it does take it out of Trump's hands thus preventing the country from suffering even further idiocy.

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

Almost seems as if the constitutional separation of powers, limiting federal gov't control was a good idea? Who would've thunk it? ... :lol: sorry, continue on.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Those of us not directly experiencing the ravages of Covid-19 first-hand may find it hard to accurately grasp the danger and may be prone to underestimate it.

Those of us not directly experiencing the ravages of the economy first-hand may find it hard to accurately grasp the danger and may be prone to underestimate it.

I've got a building full of people, most of whom live alone. Not 100%, but most. Some are doing okay, but many of those who live alone are losing their minds. Some are terrified of the virus. Some are terrified because they lost their income.

The stage is set. Same plot, different play. It won't be long until they are pitted against one another.

Tyler9000
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Tyler9000 »

George the original one wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:30 pm
Honesty time: Trump can't open the economy by Easter because Trump didn't shut it down. Fact is, apart from closing borders to a handful of countries, Trump hasn't shut anything down. State governors, county commissioners, and mayors are the ones in the driving seat right now when it comes to the economy.
Yep! And we should similarly trust local authorities when they also decide to open things up. ;)

Putting politics completely aside, I personally think a lot of the angst between people arguing about solutions is that some people have a very tough time understanding that the country is not homogeneous. For example, something like 200 of the 254 counties in Texas have zero cases of COVID-19, so a hard statewide or nationwide shutdown would do more harm than good in those areas. But lock down New York City? Absolutely. It's a big country, and not every course of action is one-size-fits-all.

My personal guess is that the eventual way out will come in stages. The major cities with huge outbreaks may stay on hard lockdown for months, perhaps with new travel restrictions that prevent people from leaving (it's already moving that direction today with Florida requiring anyone arriving to NY to go into a mandatory 2-week quarantine). But once we have enough testing and mitigation strategies (masks, hydrochloroquine, antibody tests, etc), a lot of the rest of the country will be able to reopen for business and sustainably manage new cases as they come.

We're definitely not there yet, but I'm hopeful that it won't take as long as some people are saying by only looking at the very worst cases.
Last edited by Tyler9000 on Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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