COVID-19

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George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Hospital bed occupancy rate in Oregon averages 65%. Quietly announced yesterday, the hospitals are clearing their schedules of non-life-threatening cases to make more room for COVID-19 cases and the state is in the process of acquiring 1,000 more beds in the next two weeks to be deployed from a central pool. There are about 600-700 ventilators available.

A relative of mine in the Portland, Oregon, area went to the ER on Sunday and was diagnosed with two bloodclots in the lungs and one in a leg. The ER docs wanted to admit my relative, but were told no beds were available. A Monday appointment gave her blood thinner meds instead. At this point, it's not clear to me whether that hospital was actually full up or if the bed was already being reserved for COVID-19 cases.

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

Ego wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:23 pm
California governor Newsom decreed a moratorium on most foreclosures and evictions.
Multnomah County (Portland) did the same for evictions due to failure to pay rent; the rent still has to be paid when the moratorium ends. Evictions for cause will still happen. Leases are not given the same latitude.

Undoubtedly, some renters will misunderstand this and think it is rent forgiveness rather than deferral. Also expect some landlords to dream up "for cause" actions.

ZAFCorrection
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by ZAFCorrection »

ZAFCorrection wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 4:09 pm
What if it became mandatory for everyone except people having some infrastructure-critical jobs to stay inside for two weeks? Seems the virus spread would basically stop. Would society fall apart in that amount of time?
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... on/608065/

It seems getting people to lock up for a couple of weeks is turning into one of the plans afterall. But is there some point in the infection rate curve where it is more useful than at other times? I would say that everyone in the US staying home for two weeks would have been a horrible idea back in January, but maybe it is a less-worse idea now. The above article seems to suggest the UK government is trying to optimize in that direction.

bigato
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bigato »

Brazil weather is hot and the graph of the number of cases is looking almost textbook 2^X function, so heat ain't got shit on covid19. Seeing the way authorities are dealing with this, and knowing my people's culture, we may see one million deaths in Brazil from covid19 alone before the end of the year. And that's considering that the health system will be perfectly able to absorb all the demand which is very unlikely.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

@ZAFCorrection --- If everybody lock themselves up for a month, that would solve it right there. If they lock up together, say 2-6 people, the virus could bounce around with one person getting it a week later, say, and so that would be 5 weeks. And so on. The more people quarantine together, the longer the quarantine needs to last. South Korea locked up early---in practice by testing massively and chasing every vector down---which fixed the problem until 1 person ("patient 31") got out of quarantine and started two new clusters.

Mathematically... the earlier the quarantine the better, simply because it has a higher likelihood of working (catching everybody) when the number of infections is low. That would be a variation of contact tracing which worked on SARS-1. I doubt humans are intelligent enough to do this on their own though. Well, they clearly aren't. Besides, the economic system is clearly not set up for it---as we see now. But if it was, this would be the easiest way.

Practically... follow the Chinese/Italian approach. Close the borders of as small an area as possible. A county. A city. A city or apartment block. Then let it burn out (nobody tests positive) inside the block. That block is now green. This releases the block to join an adjacent block that is also green. And so on for larger and larger areas. People can freely move inside their blocks but not pass into outside red blocks. If an area fails a test, it fractures and is declared red again. Rinse and repeat.

A self-quarantine is simply creating a block that's the size of one's home. A similar strategy could be followed insofar the humans/human control systems (culture, regulations, government) work. They did in China and South Korea where "the curve" was broken.

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

Some indication that the "youth" fatality count is ramping up because many young people were stupid and still out spreading it to each other whereas the older population took self-isolation seriously a couple of weeks earlier. Thus while the true death rate of the young is lower, they've infected each other to a greater degree, so there are more of them who have been infected. At this time the virus has had time to incubate and so they're showing up at the hospitals around now.

Trying to find confirmation ...

GandK
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Re: COVID-19

Post by GandK »

I wonder how many people will get sick tonight because people will insist on celebrating St. Patrick's Day in the traditional fashion.

bostonimproper
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Re: COVID-19

Post by bostonimproper »

I can't imagine maintaining social distancing measures for a year or more is going to fly. I am very much an introvert and working from home and isolating the last three weeks has been slowly driving me insane.
Last edited by bostonimproper on Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

Three wild ideas.

1. Infect the young. Pay them to get infected and recover to begin herd immunity.
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/03/e ... young.html

2. Pay those with immunity for their blood and use it to treat the ill.
PDF: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articl ... -24634.pdf

3. Test widely and create a database of those with immunity who are free to restart the economy.

AnalyticalEngine
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

So you're saying @Ego that we just need to infect a bunch of children and then sell their blood? That sounds like a business opportunity to me. :lol:

Doing some research, it appears to me the innate immune response is absolutely critical for this virus. Specifically it's the production of interferon (your body's natural antiviral). This virus might be able to dodge getting deactivated by interferon, which is why it can get so bad. Children and younger people naturally have better innate immune system and so they can deactivate the virus easier. It also explains why a high inoculum may lead to more death. Interferon is produced before your t cells can launch into action. More viruses at onset = more probability that some will be able to avoid interferon deactivation and infect your cells.

This also explains why certain medications like ibuprofen can make infection worse. Interferon can be deactivated or work less well depending on medication you're taking.

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TheWanderingScholar
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Re: COVID-19

Post by TheWanderingScholar »

Ego wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:22 pm
Three wild ideas.

1. Infect the young. Pay them to get infected and recover to begin herd immunity.
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/03/e ... young.html

I offer myself as tribute if I get paid enough.

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

Ego wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:22 pm
1. Infect the young. Pay them to get infected and recover to begin herd immunity.
There would be plenty who'd go for it. After all, it's only 1/500 to die, right...?

Either Warren or Charlie said something along the lines of 'never risk what you can't afford to loose to gain something you don't need'.

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

Peanut wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:15 am
She should stand firm and dare them to fire her, which they won't.
She isn't going in. It's pretty funny. She has worked there for 20 years and never takes sickies or works from home.

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Bankai
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Bankai »

I wonder if it makes sense to create a separate topic with links to COVID-19 resources? This topic is already 59 pages long and will hit 10,000 posts by late summer so navigating will be impossible.

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID-19

Post by classical_Liberal »

Ego wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:00 am
Important Note: This is not a study. It is a hypothesis. Buyer beware.
Some real science on this:
http://www.nephjc.com/news/covidace2
Theoretically, and in some studies, the ACEi or ARBs could be beneficial as well. Please don't stop taking your medication just yet.
From the science, it’s not just that we don’t if know ACEis or ARBs (looked at seperately) increase the risk of COVID19, or the severity, we don’t even know whether these drugs might be beneficial. To reiterate:

We don’t know if there is an association between ACEi/ARB and COVID19

If there is one, we don’t know the direction of association (beneficial or harmful)

We don’t know the magnitude of any possible association
_________
theanimal wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:09 am
@C_L- Curious where you see 41k on that site? The total tests given is showing ~27k on my end. Either way, happy things are trending upwards.
Not sure why we are seeing different numbers.
https://www.politico.com//interactives/ ... new-cases/
Now up to 54,000 tests. At this rate, we should at least get a handle on how widespread it is at this time.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

classical_Liberal wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:51 pm
Some real science on this:
http://www.nephjc.com/news/covidace2
Theoretically, and in some studies, the ACEi or ARBs could be beneficial as well. Please don't stop taking your medication just yet.
Yes, you may have missed it but I included that same study at the bottom of that post.
Ego wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:00 am
ETA2: No simple answers: http://www.nephjc.com/news/covidace2

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:11 pm
State of Washington published count as of 3:45p Mon, 16 Mar
- 904 Positives
- 9451 Negatives
- 48 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 4 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 3 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 7 Island (Coupeville)
- 3 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 488 King (Seattle)
- 7 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 3 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 1 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 38 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 7 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 200 Snohomish (Everett)
- 3 Spokane (Spokane)
- 4 Thurston (Olympia)
- 3 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 4 Yakima (Yakima)
- 126 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 7% 0-29
- 12% 30-39
- 13% 40-49
- 16% 50-59
- 15% 60-69
- 17% 70-79
- 18% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 53% Female
- 43% Male
- 4% Unknown
Added Klickatat County.

State of Washington published count as of 3:15p Tue, 17 Mar
- 1012 Positives
- 13117 Negatives
- 52 deaths

Cases by County (County seats)
- 4 Clark (Vancouver)
- 1 Columbia (Dayton)
- 7 Grant (Ephrata)
- 1 Grays Harbor (Montesano)
- 14 Island (Coupeville)
- 3 Jefferson (Port Townsend)
- 569 King (Seattle)
- 7 Kitsap (Port Orchard)
- 3 Kittitas (Ellensburg)
- 1 Klickatat (Goldendale)
- 1 Lewis (Chehalis)
- 1 Lincoln (Davenport)
- 45 Pierce (Tacoma)
- 9 Skagit (Mount Vernon)
- 254 Snohomish (Everett)
- 4 Spokane (Spokane)
- 5 Thurston (Olympia)
- 6 Whatcom (Bellingham)
- 5 Yakima (Yakima)
- 70 Unassigned (labs are having trouble keeping up and Dept of Health is working to determine the proper county)

Cases by Age
- 2% 0-19
- 7% 0-29
- 12% 30-39
- 14% 40-49
- 16% 50-59
- 15% 60-69
- 17% 70-79
- 17% 80+

Cases by Sex at Birth
- 51% Female
- 46% Male
- 3% Unknown

George the original one
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Re: COVID-19

Post by George the original one »

George the original one wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:52 pm
Oregon Health Authority as of 10a Mon, Mar 16
- 47 Positives
- 689 Negatives
- 1 Death
- 184 Pending
- 352 Currently Monitoring
- 381 Completed Monitoring or no risk

Cases by County
- 2 Benton (Corvallis)
- 2 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 6 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 10 Linn (Albany)
- 3 Marion (Salem)
- 2 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 14 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 1 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 1 17 or younger
- 3 18-24
- 1 25-34
- 13 35-54
- 29 55+
18 new cases, first big jump primarily from 7 new cases in Washington County and 5 in the Veterans home in Albany. Unlike Washington state currently, the infected people are predominately elderly.
Edit: Evening news says first Lane County case has appeared, but the count is still 65 cases.

With no explanation, Oregon quits reporting the number of people being monitored and that have cleared monitoring.

Oregon Health Authority as of 9a Tue, Mar 17
- 65 Positives
- 968 Negatives
- 1 Death
- 215 Pending

Cases by County
- 2 Benton (Corvallis) - Note these are actually in Washington state, though they're residents of Benton County.
- 6 Clackamas (Oregon City)
- 6 Deschutes (Bend)
- 1 Douglas (Roseburg)
- 2 Jackson (Medford)
- 1 Klamath (Klamath Falls)
- 15 Linn (Albany)
- 4 Marion (Salem)
- 3 Multnomah (Portland)
- 1 Polk (Dallas)
- 2 Umatilla (Pendleton)
- 21 Washington (Hillsboro)
- 1 Yamhill (McMinnville)

Cases by Age Group
- 3 17 or younger
- 4 18-24
- 1 25-34
- 15 35-54
- 42 55+

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C40
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Re: COVID-19

Post by C40 »

Here in Vietnam they have pretty much closed the borders to all foreigners for one month, starting today. Nearly all of if Vietnam's recent cases have been from people coming in on flights from Europe and the middle east. They seem to do a great job of tracking down others on the flight, and preventing local community spread by those who entered with Covid. But they were starting to get 2-3 new cases every day from those flights coming in. So they've shut that off to buy time.

It's tricky now for me and other foreigners whose visas or entry periods expire soon. Mine expires within 30 days, so I can't go to the border by land as planned and get a new re-entry stamp (which would be good for 3 months). As of today, I can only get a 1-month extension in place. It's more expensive than usual, but I think I will do that. I'd rather buy some time before going back to the U.S. My options seem to be:

- Extend one month here in Vietnam. Then see if I can get a new entry stamp at border... or extend more..
- Either right now or near the end of my +1 month (~very early May) come back to the U.S.
- Find some other country to go to and wait things out for a while. (I have a plane ticket to Malaysia for April 5, but that's not looking like an option)


Malaysia is taking pretty drastic measures, starting today. (most businesses closed. No foreigners can enter. Malaysians cannot go 'overseas'.). This is currently set up for March 18-31. Could totally be extended.

steveo73
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Re: COVID-19

Post by steveo73 »

The travel restrictions are happening in Australia as well. Schools are still on.

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