COVID-19

[Lucky C]

Not news to me after seeing in the past several weeks multiple plausible accounts of Americans going to the doctor with a good match of the symptoms, testing negative for the flu, and being sent home with just an antibiotic prescription or whatever. No Wuhan contact = no test, reassurance that they can't have COVID-19. The CDC are only starting to roll out serious testing now. Not sure if their updated test kits are actually reliable yet.

So many exciting realities in this Choose Your Own Adventure!
If you'd like to believe it will run its course by summer and its impact to GDP will be exactly -0.251%, turn to page 42.
If you'd like to believe it's less deadly than the flu and a Democrat hoax, turn to page 101.
If you'd like to believe it's an incurable bioweapon that will kill 5% of the population, reinfect, and kill a greater percent ad infinitum, and China is incinerating people while they're still alive, turn to page 666.

[Gilberto de Piento]

I was out at two big box home stores today to buy house project supplies, both were out of masks and goggles and had limits on how many masks you could buy if any came in. If there is anything you need buy it now. That said, don't be the person who buys a pallet of whatever just to hoard it. Supplies are going to be limited, don't make it worse than it has to be.

I had a good talk with some people today about Y2K. I forgot about it and how scared many people were. It was a different problem to prepare for though.

[Sclass]

I just got back from Harbor Freight Tools. One pair of goggles left. Lots of wrap around safety glasses but I wanted the full on lab goggles with the strap. They’ll be good for cord trimming if I survive.

Interesting theory about COVID 19 being around for awhile. My gut feel (and the bits of news) is that it is already out and circulating in California. I saw an interview with a Davis student and she said several students are sick at her dorm under self quarantine. No test of course because this is California where we only have 200 test kits.

I doubt the disease has been lingering long though. The rate at which it has multiplied on the Diamond Princess and in Seoul suggests that once it in here it makes itself known by quickly multiplying and creating a local transmission crisis. This thing spreads and grows exponentially. I honestly think the fact the ERs aren’t filling up with pneumonia cases in California is because it is just starting to gain a foothold.

Or maybe the ERs are overrun and they’re not reporting on it?

Well, given the case in Davis and the Santa Clara community transfer I think it’s just a matter of days before we see some signal popping out of the noise.

[jacob]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

[bostonimproper]

That's quite the provocative title for what amounted to moderate flu-like symptoms. Was worried there would be a twist about the grandmother.

[Gilberto de Piento]

Harbor Freight Tools.

You're definitely going to die if you are using Harbor Freight PPE.

[AnalyticalEngine]

First US death, I think in Washington state? Looks like there's a confirmed case of a nurse from a retirement home. They're now testing the entire home for covid because a lot of the residents have developed flu like illness. Yikes!

Press conference: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u8_4iyPMkoY

EDIT: Press conference is telling residents of Washington state to prepare to stay within their homes/social distancing and that they should stock up on food. They're considering canceling large public events if it gets worse. They have improved testing capacity now in Washington state.

[Ego]

How long until they announce that the supply of tests has been exhausted? I find it hard to see how this is going to work otherwise.

Also, I'd argue for the rapid deployment of a saline "vaccine".

[AnalyticalEngine]

In the press conference, they mention they can test 200 kits a day and are dramatically ramping up with commercial labs. They also drop the bombshell at the end where they say they have 6 "presumptive" cases but can't actually officially announce that until the CDC reruns the tests themselves. (Presumptive being where only their lab has returned positive)

[Sclass]

You're definitely going to die if you are using Harbor Freight PPE.

no kidding. It’s probably still slathered with fresh COVID 19!

Like I always say here about cheap tools, a crappy tool is better than no tool.

[ertyu]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

Two interesting bits about this:

- the medical establishment only decided to test and report him as a case once he was on the mend
- for every 2 cases tested and reported (him + brother), there might be at least two not tested and reported (mom + grandma).

[AnalyticalEngine]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1233 ... 03426.html

Based on analysis of the virus genome in Washington state, they think they've had undetected transmission going on for at least six weeks.

[Sclass]

Thanks for posting that. What an eye opener.

A bunch of questions come to mind when I see this. One being why don’t we have an outbreak in the PNO? Luck? There has to be a reason our wards are filling up with serious pneumonia cases in LA, the Bay Area and OC.

I had a flashback to grad school thirty years back and recalled a social habit among my mainland Chinese classmates that I found shocking. They used to insist on not using serving utensils at Chinese restaurants. They invite me out, then they’d dip their chopsticks in the dishes and serve themselves after licking their chopsticks. They’d serve me with their chopsticks. I was like eww f..k are you kidding dude? That ain’t cool in ‘Merica!

I confronted the friend alone about it and he apologized. He said it was about showing affection and familiarity. It was a gesture showing that they accepted me. I didn’t know how to respond. He went on to say that my insistence on serving utensils was kind of an affront to their hospitality. Dang. I forgot all about this till now.

Maybe this spread Corona virus around in Wuhan? I recall my mainland Chinese friends not being a very kissy crowd. I could hardly tell which people were couples based on their public displays of affection. No hugs either. Guys held hands till we’d tell them it would be interpreted as homosexuality. Ahh cultural differences. The chopsticks theory.

[rube]

I have never experienced anything Sclass mentioned and have been over the years at quite some Chinese Restaurants in China with Chinese Colleagues/Friends.
You use serving utensils or serving chopsticks for serving. You use your own chopsticks for eating.

[AnalyticalEngine]

One being why don’t we have an outbreak in the PNO? Luck?

I think there's basically two possibilities here. One is that COVID-19 is more mild than we thought and there is an outbreak going on, but due to limitations of CDC testing, these cases are going undetected as "influenza." I'm not sure how likely that is because we've seen it can be quite severe in China/Italy/SK, and even the first patient they treated for it in the US was a guy in his 30s who had to be hospitalized. But maybe we'll get lucky and it turns out to be milder than we think now?

The second possibility is you're in the beginning of the exponential growth curve. Assuming a doubling time of a week, and assuming you start with 1 case, that's 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024 = 11 weeks until you have 1,000 cases. These things grow slowly at first but then quite dramatically at the peak, hence why we keep hearing Dr. Tedros of the WHO refer to "Window of Opportunity." He means the beginning of the curve is when we need to implement drastic social distancing measures and dramatic ramp up of medical supplies. These things can go from nothing to snowball very quickly.

[bostonimproper]

I wonder if nationalized health care will catch on if people keep getting charged huge medical expenses for government-enforced quarantines?

[AnalyticalEngine]

I highly recommend anyone who's curious about how the healthcare situation in the US will play out to watch the entirety of the Clade X video archives. It is long, but it will help you better understand how our officials are thinking and what kind of weakness are in the US healthcare system.

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/ ... livestream

[Sclass]

I have never experienced anything Sclass mentioned....
You use serving utensils or serving chopsticks for serving. You use your own chopsticks for eating.

I think my experience happened a long time ago. SARS seems to have stopped this cultural behavior. Here is an old article about it from the SARS era. Apologies for my ignorance and cultural insensitivity.

Maybe behind paywall.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB11237091 ... lewebshare

[Ego]

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/ ... livestream

I've been watching this in 5-10 minute snippets since you recommended it. I'm almost 2/3 of the way through the second video and they are grappling with the consequences of mobilizing the National Guard to enforce quarantines.

My mind keeps returning to the fact that the president claims to be a germophobe.

[theanimal]

The spread in Iran seems to be happening very rapidly. There are reports all across the country of people falling down in the streets and/or showing symptoms. 20 members of parliament have contracted the virus (7% of parliament). One hospital in Qom is reported to have all 600+ beds filled with people who have covid. That alone is far more than the official numbers coming from their government.

2 detailed twitter threads that have been reporting on the country in the links below.

https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/123 ... 00640?s=19

https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/123 ... 98497?s=19