Investments Trade Log

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@Jason

Excellent call! Up 26.74% today. I wish I would have chosen that one for the call options I've been doing lately...

Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Today I did one of my "exploratory purchases" and got some Rio Tinto stock.
I wanted to start looking into commodities (if you look back into this thread I've wanted to dabble into this for a while*) and ended up with RIO because
1- they're completely out of coal and other fossil fuels
2- they have the lowest debt of the big commodity players
I had to buy a little as I have found myself incapable of consistently following a company without having a little skin in the game.

Anybody have an opinion on RIO?

*long enough to miss a 100% runup obviously. another reminder to ALWAYS jump in when sectors experience "once in a decade or more" drops

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Executed:
Transaction type: Buy to open
Order type: Limit
Option name: V 09/18/2020 C $265.00
Quantity: 29 contract(s)
Price:* $0.87

Jason
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Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:37 am

Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason »

Lemur wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:28 pm
@Jason

Excellent call! Up 26.74% today. I wish I would have chosen that one for the call options I've been doing lately...
I'm an investing genius.

SPCE is definitely the little dove flying in the shadow of Tesla's irrational eagle's wings. And for purposes of transparency, my FOMO got the best of me and I bought a Tesla share on January 28 and am now up 48%. It was too embarrassing to admit. But Charlie Munger spewing like Jabba The Prick rankled me. Not that I like Elon Musk. I mean he's one nervous breakdown from going full blown John McAfee. But what the hay.

On another note, I went hardcore (relative to my portfolio) into NVDA in the fall thanks to none other than Jim Cramer who said that along with Disney it was his pick for the next decade.. My lowest entry point was $181.00. Average is probably in low 200's. Shit is now $295.00. The icing on the cake is Al Gore's hedge fund sold at the time I bought. I like to think I bought his stuffed shirt shares. Recent press release is he went back in after it spiked on earnings report. I guess a day late and a dollar short is why Tipper left him. My TTD has pretty much equaled the run.

ToFI
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ToFI »

SPCE is going to the space! (Pun intended).

SPCE has moved to the top 10 of my portfolio within weeks.(Individual weight is less than 1%) I've purchased more shares to establish a full position. My average cost is: $23.4

It seems the share float is very limited and the demand is pushing it to the space. There are big funds investing in SPCE. This is a virtuous cycle. Higher price allows VG to raise funding for expansion at a very favourable price. It's interesting to see how far can VG grows as a space company.


@Jason,
I bought TTD as well. A super growth stock. 50% revenue growth rate and it's profitable. At 14B cap, I see more growth in the years to come. This is how to beat the index return.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Lemur was considering MSFT, VISA, or SPCE as his first big call option investments. Lemur went with the first two and is up but.... Lemur wonders why he didn't pick SPCE lol.

Jason
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason »

ToFI wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:31 am
I bought TTD as well.
TTD and Roku are usually coupled together as the two cut the cord plays that are not actual streaming services. I don't own Roku. The person who runs the MF TTD board SWEARS by this stock. Believes it will be $1000 per share in not so distant future.

I don't know what call options are. But, many people think MSFT will be making a major MA play this year. Like my buddy, Al Gore, I bought TWLO on the dip. They happen to be one of the candidates but that's not why I bought. I actually don't know why I bought. But its up more than 30% so that's good enough of an explanation I guess.

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

Well this one is a bit more interesting...and a bit riskier but I'm taking a chance here that Disney + in India, Baby Yoda Sales, and Mulan are going to pump Disney up by Summer.

Executed:
Transaction type: Buy to open
Order type: Limit
Option name: DIS 09/18/2020 C $170.00
Quantity: 15 contract(s)
Price:* $1.60

Lucky C
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lucky C »

Never thought I would see this forum jump on the bandwagon of speculative call options for popular stocks with the US market at record valuations in the longest bull run in history.

The trend is your friend til it bends in the end.

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

I'm selling them, so it probably evens out :-P

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Lemur
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Lemur »

@Lucky C

I agree with you; Adjusted CAPE ratio is ridiculously high, Treasury Yield Curve Inverted Recently?, Debt Levels increasing, and all that...however, I do appreciate that this forum can have discourse on alternative investment strategies. On reddit FI forums, MMM, or any other forums, you're pretty much outcasted if you suggest anything other then index funds. Not saying everyone should do options though but they're an...option (pun intended).

And if you really believe that things are going to bend in the end....there is always put options haha.

The market has been completely irrational for a while now and maybe this is a bad omen that someone as risk adverse as myself is jumping on the train (though I'm only putting 3% of my portfolio on speculations). Though I can irrationally argue that Trump will keep the Fed held down and this bull has a little bit more juice left in it before it pops (I doubt I will be doing any options over the election cycle for various reasons).

Also I do not believe it is irrational to have at least a small amount of your portfolio allocated to risky investments to potentially boost returns. There is some type of portfolio theory argument for that somewhere I read about that I cannot recall at this time.

@Jacob

Selling/Writing Call Options? Or are you just sitting on Cash?

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

Selective covered calls on overvalued positions.

ajcoleman22
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ajcoleman22 »

I love Disney as well. Good luck on that trade Lemur.

theanimal
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by theanimal »

I bought Disney a few months before Disney + launched. It's treated me well so far, such a great business.

Seppia
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia »

Lucky C wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 11:34 am
Never thought I would see this forum jump on the bandwagon of speculative call options for popular stocks with the US market at record valuations in the longest bull run in history.

The trend is your friend til it bends in the end.
In general I think what a 10 year bull market does is some people forget one of my favorite Warren Buffett nuggets

“Over the years, a number of very smart people have learned the hard way that a long string of impressive numbers multiplied by a single zero always equals zero.”

In this sense, being an index ayatollah is not as bad

Jason
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason »

I started buying DIS in the mid 120's. It has come down since the initial spike caused by streaming launch. It's four businesses in one - merchandising/movies/theme parks/streaming. The only thing they can't do is gaming so they license it out. The capital costs of launching streaming plus Coronavirus issues is keeping it down. No one company in the history of America has been better at integrating their products. I personally hate fucking Star Wars. And I hate movies about super heroes. The thing I love most about Disney are videos of families beating the shit out of each at Disney World. Put that on Disney + and I'd subscribe. Any ways, for those who love it, they pass it on too their idiot kids. It's a legacy thing.

ajcoleman22
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ajcoleman22 »

I agree with Jason's assessment; don't forget cruises. I bought Disney several years ago when my inlaws planned a trip for $10k. I thought $10k was crazy. The response, "but it's Disney"

Disney will never stop making money with the cult following they have.

ertyu
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by ertyu »

wait for a dip, dis have parks in china, and english teaching thing in china; if movie attendance + park/cruise attendance suffers because of ncovid, dis might be going down before it goes up (if it does go up)

Jason
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason »

The fact that Disney is being impacted by Coronavirus is informative: it tells us Disney has a strong presence in China. So what's negative in the short run is positive in the long run. The main reason that movies are comic books or cartoons with unsophisticated dialogue is in order that they can appeal to the Chinese market.

https://www.firstthings.com/media/how-c ... -hollywood

8 out the 10 highest grossing films in 2019 were in some way connected to Disney and now they will only be accessible in the future through Disney +. That's owning the hardware and the software. Then they make a theme park ride and a musical and a prequel and it never ends. Thirteen year old boys living in a future that actually looks like Star Wars will be dry humping their Princess Leaih sleeping bags. George Lucas made American Graffiti so I can't completely kill him. But he's the movie mogul version of The Who. When you take a closer look at the catalogue, its limited but through re-packaging and various media formats it doesn't stop earning. They also own ESPN and the Chinese love NBA basketball. They're probably treating Yao Ming like Secretariat and having him bang the tallest women in the country five times a day. I bet he's got a hundred kids right now working out in some secret gymnasium. Country is bat shit crazy. Literally and figuratively. No offense to any Chinese ERErs.

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob »

A lot of today's damage is likely margin buyers being forced to cover. Even gold is down today. 2008 saw some of the same behavior. Initially all the high-flyers get punished, yet the day after the good stuff gets dragged down too. Correlations are breaking down as expected.

Add: Margin speculators will only sell "the good stuff" for covering purposes insofar it has recently appreciated.

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