COVID-19

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ToFI
Posts: 136
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2011 1:22 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by ToFI »

The big spike was just from the Hubei province alone. There's no spike outside of Hubei province at all.

Also the mortality rate is much lower outside of Wuhan, Hubei.

For example, there are 1261 confirmed cases in Guangdong province but only 2 deaths. That's 0.16% mortality. It's like a seasonal flu.


Guangdong province average mortality is 0.16%
Hubei province average mortality is: 2.53%.
Nation wide average mortality is 2.17%.

Ah, it could be the temperature difference. It's much warmer in Guangdong province.

I checked the northern china:
In Heilongjiang province which is very close to Russia, the mortality rate is: 11/418 = 2.63%. So the virus thrives in colder temperature.

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TheWanderingScholar
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Re: COVID-19

Post by TheWanderingScholar »

@ToFI

Or just does worse in warm temperature. ;)

In other news, plasma immunotherapy has been brought up as a way to combat the disease.

Source: Convalescent plasma offers promising treatment for coronavirus
Source:China Seeks Plasma From Recovered Patients as Virus Treatment

So there is stop gap measures without a vaccine.

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Sclass
Posts: 1935
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:15 pm
Location: Orange County, CA

Re: COV

Post by Sclass »

That is really interesting. It reminds me of how they make antivenin by shooting horses with snake venom.

I hope and pray they are screening for HIV and Hepatitis B and C when they do this. China created an HIV epidemic with contaminated plasma decades ago.

Edit - here’s a reference. It’s a dangerous game in China.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasma_Economy

Oh hell no, they’re still doing it.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... inated-hiv

Hey they mention the rabies vaccine. Didn’t know that’s how the belly injections worked.

JuliusFC
Posts: 32
Joined: Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:07 pm
Location: Vancouver, BC

Re: COVID-19

Post by JuliusFC »

I live in Vancouver and there continue to be multiple fights a day arriving from China and Hong Kong and our province is still only at 4 confirmed cases. Can anyone explain to my non-scientific mind how this can be? I'm assuming it's because people are simply dealing with their flu symptoms and not going to the doctor if they are/get sick (and they've been lucky not to be sick enough to have to go). So they're not getting tested and the numbers are staying low. Of course not all the people on the flights are staying in the Vancouver area. Some would just be moving on to cities in North America that have banned flights. It just seems odd to me that Vancouver and the airport haven't become hot spots.

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Dream of Freedom
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Location: Nebraska, US

Re: COVID-19

Post by Dream of Freedom »

@JuliusFC

The population of China is over 1 billion. There are about 65000 infected. So a fraction of 1 percent of people are infected. Hence not many cases coming through.
Last edited by Dream of Freedom on Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

AnalyticalEngine
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Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:57 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Not to mention they have Hubei and other provinces inside a sanitary cordon, so the odds of a random infected person getting on a given plane are pretty low. Combined with airport fever screenings and quick isolation, they've done a pretty good job at containing it. Note that you don't have to detect every single case. You just have to keep the average number of people a give infected person infects below one. If you can do that, you can effectively contain the outbreak.

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TheWanderingScholar
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Re: COVID-19

Post by TheWanderingScholar »

Not only that but Chinese people, especially males, smoke a lot more than western countries. That makes the average Chinese person more susceptible to pneumonia like virus, which COVID-19 is.
Last edited by TheWanderingScholar on Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

JuliusFC
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Location: Vancouver, BC

Re: COVID-19

Post by JuliusFC »

Thanks @DreamOfFreedom et als.

Your logic and math are interfering with my overwhelming need to panic though. :)

ertyu
Posts: 948
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by ertyu »

It's ok, you can still panic. Says cnn: in JP some old lady from middle of nowhere died of pneumonia and they decided to test her for shits and giggles, she was positive. She didn't go anywhere or have contact with anyone suspicious. Virus is out, it's a matter of time.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20022707v1

Estimates 1.8 undetected cases for every detected case globally (outside of China).

jacob
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Re: COVID-19

Post by jacob »

https://www.dw.com/en/africa-confirms-f ... a-52384446

First case in Africa.

An asymptotic person has tested positive in Egypt. I didn't find anything about their nationality. It should be noted that China has a strong presence in Africa with Chinese workers likely returning(?) as the new year's celebrations are ending.

Jean
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Location: Switzterland

Re: COVID-19

Post by Jean »

ertyu wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:40 pm
It's ok, you can still panic. Says cnn: in JP some old lady from middle of nowhere died of pneumonia and they decided to test her for shits and giggles, she was positive. She didn't go anywhere or have contact with anyone suspicious. Virus is out, it's a matter of time.
That's calming to me. I understand from this event that it's already around, and that it isn't catastrophic.

Lucky C
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Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2016 6:09 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by Lucky C »

Cases outside US are approx. doubling every week and currently confirmed around 600. With potentially asymptomatic infections over long incubation periods, and the possibility that R0 is significantly higher than initial estimates, each case in a new location is a potential patient zero for exponential growth. We can treat people better in the developed world vs. China but we are also not going to be locking people in their own homes... I picture Americans having more of an IDGAF attitude toward the disease and not wearing masks, not suspending travel plans, etc.

If this doubling every week persisted for only 3 more months (so mid-May), that would be 4 - 5 million confirmed cases and of course when we get to those kinds of numbers we would be very limited in our testing and reporting ability, ability to contain it, etc. Since that is only a few months away, I don't really see a reason to believe that it will be held to a few thousand cases. Even if growth slows to say doubling every 2 weeks, it seems to me at least as likely to saturate the population than to die out in the next few weeks. If it seems unlikely that it will go on to infect many millions, keep in mind that about 26 million people get infected by the flu each year in the US alone, and this coronavirus is significantly more contagious.

Just my guess and I don't mean to cause people to worry. I'm only trying to be realistic and I think the virus eventually getting to areas where myself or loved ones work or live is a more realistic expectation than thinking it won't reach us.

AnalyticalEngine
Posts: 305
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:57 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

The time to truly worry is when we start seeing sustained community transfer that we can't trace back to China. That is, when people start getting sick on a sustained and community basis, and when contact tracing no longer helps. Note that the CDC is now testing for COVID-19 in patients that test negative for flu in Seattle, LA, and a few other places. They chose these locations based on which airports have the most traffic with China.

So when Seattle has a community outbreak, that's when we're doomed. :lol:

Note that if COVID-19 does come to a city near you, the best thing to do is practice social distancing. During the Spanish flu pandemic, cities with better hygiene and better social distancing measures had far fewer deaths. This could also be why Wuhan has been hit so hard. With poor air quality, more crowded living conditions, and more smokers, you would expect more transmission and deaths.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197
“It’s highly possible to get infected a second time. A few people recovered from the first time by their own immune system, but the meds they use are damaging their heart tissue, and when they get it the second time, the antibody doesn’t help but makes it worse, and they die a sudden death from heart failure.”
Granted, this is third hand. Which drugs used to fight viral pneumonia cause heart damage?

-----

Bought another 100 of the thin n95 masks this morning for $3.

Be safe without losing the ability to unlock your phone. $40

https://faceidmasks.com/#about

thrifty++
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Re: COVID-19

Post by thrifty++ »

@Ego - OMFG 100 N 95 masks for $3!! How did you get them for that price? I bought three of them for $32.

AnalyticalEngine
Posts: 305
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 11:57 am

Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Maybe they're talking about getting pneumonia a second time immediately after the virus is gone? A lot of deaths from viral respiratory illness are actually caused by a secondary bacterial infection.

ETA: also not exactly sure on the details, but some antivirals, like interferon, can cause cytokine storm type symptoms. Not sure if that's what they're talking about? Your body makes interferon naturally, and too much immune stimulation can cause inflammation/tissue damage.

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Ego
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Re: COVID-19

Post by Ego »

thrifty++ wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:36 pm
@Ego - OMFG 100 N 95 masks for $3!! How did you get them for that price? I bought three of them for $32.
Yeah, I was digging through a giant box as the seller unloaded and found about twenty packs of 100 masks each. I was tempted to buy them all but when he yelled $3 everyone around me got excited so I starting tossing them to the group. One pack should be enough. I manage a building with fiftysome tenants so I will probably be sharing them.
AnalyticalEngine wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:46 pm
A lot of deaths from viral respiratory illness are actually caused by a secondary bacterial infection.
I was reading a treatment protocol for serious cases of viral pneumonia and was surprised that it involves administering antibiotics as the patient is vulnerable to bacterial infection while their system is fighting the virus.

I've been working on a list of useful tools for treating viral pneumonia at home. Our goal would be to avoid hospitals if at all possible and to know when to go to the hospital in the unlikely event treatment is necessary. Our hospital down the street is the place where the worst cases are taken during any emergency and they are currently treating two people who are Covid-19 positive.

AnalyticalEngine
Posts: 305
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Re: COVID-19

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Esh, did you guys hear they let 2k people off that cruise ship that docked in Cambodia? These people went sight seeing then flew home all over the world. But later on, they tested an American woman for the coronavirus, and she tested positive. So they've just sent 2k exposed people flying all across the globe. :shock: Given how bad it's been on the Princess Plague Diamond, this is pretty concerning.

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Ego
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus

Post by Ego »

@AE, Sheesh!
Ego wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:30 pm
So it looks like the pandemic is coming. Imagine you've been transported back to the first week in January. You live in Wuhan. And you know what you know today. You can't leave the area. You know the pandemic is coming. What do you do?
Image

So, today I bought the Vicks personal steamer on the right for $1. Good for loosening mucus in the lungs. It works perfectly but is missing the face mask. I figure I can jerry-rig something if necessary. I also got the nebulizer on the left for $2. I can cross the border and get some albuterol for it (among other meds) if things continue to deteriorate.

I thought I scored an oxygen concentrator for $4 but it turned out to be a c-pap machine. Hah!

There are a few vendors who specialize in second-hand medical supplies and they have collectively increased their prices for pulse oximeters to $20 anticipating that they will soon fetch far more. I believe pulse oximeters will be the most useful tool in determining the severity of pneumonia. They are still only $11 from Walmart. I know I will find one for $1 at some point in the next few weeks so I have hesitated to order one.

Boxes of medical gloves are selling for $10. They used to be $4-5. I didn't see any masks today.

Suggestions?

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