Only if the expected failure rate is 50%.jacob wrote:It's easier to cover 1 JAFI with a half-time minimum wage job. 2 JAFI either requires a full time min wage job or finding something that pays twice the min wage. It's reasonable that confidence would be less for finding something that pays $15/hr years down the road since those jobs are rarer for unskilled labor---it's certainly beyond the pay of screwing nuts on bolts, stocking shelves, or doing tax returns. People will weigh this against the fact that they earn $30, $45, or $60/hr now, so the question becomes whether they really hate their job 2-4x as much as they would hate a future job. Alternatively, in terms of "doing time", whats the discount factor in terms of doing time now vs doing 2-4x as much time in the future. (In reality the future time will be even longer because of interest.)
then I would suggest that a better (more likely to reduce expectation Total Hours Lifetime Worked Forward) would include something like a programmable thermostat and something like a sweater. The "sweater" could be Work for Money and the Programmable Thermostat could be set to reflect the individual's risk tolerance. For instance, one individual might set it to turn on Work for Money option if/when Expected 30 Year Horizon Failure Rate rises to 20% with annual calculation. Semi-ERE is much more difficult if you don't have low spending. I don't engage much with the fatFIRE community because I don't relate to them. I guess my feeling is, if you hate your job and you're already in the FIRE/ ERE community, you should be that much more compelled to bring spending down. I don't spend a lot of time talking about the benefits of low spending towards semi-ERE, because these benefits are extensively covered in the FIRE community. Off the cuff, I'd say:
I can think of a bunch of part-time jobs that pay $15/h. I think the most desirable jobs pay between $12-$25/ hour. These jobs are semi-skilled. Unskilled jobs are usually pretty lame. This is sort of a weak spot akin to investing in FIRE (if you're not in the index investor cult). I can't come up with a formula for everyone. I think if you were skilled and smart enough to live on 25% of average expenditures and save 50-90% of your income for years on end, it's highly likely that you can land a part-time job making $12-$25/ hour. I think this is scariest for the salaryman who's only done one job that they went to college for throughout most of their life. There's a high amount of prestige/ identity attached to the job and not much experience switching. Inside the salaryman culture, losing the job is deeply feared and surviving without a salary is unthinkable.jacob wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:47 pmIt's easier to cover 1 JAFI with a half-time minimum wage job. 2 JAFI either requires a full time min wage job or finding something that pays twice the min wage. It's reasonable that confidence would be less for finding something that pays $15/hr years down the road since those jobs are rarer for unskilled labor---it's certainly beyond the pay of screwing nuts on bolts, stocking shelves, or doing tax returns.
So much this.
Same for me. I certainly lack imagination (I often come out as a logistician when I take the Myers-Briggs), but I’d probably need to get to the point where my dividends cover 200% of my expenses to completely forgo stable incomeclassical_Liberal wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:41 pmThis is why I say, I'll probably NEVER feel safe if I don't have, at least some, form of income.
It strikes me that your issues have nothing to do with money, SWRs, 40x expenses or financial independence.classical_Liberal wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 5:41 pmAfter 1 year I would have a hard time finding a position as a travel nurse. Hospital experience within the last year is generally a height requirement. Although it may be possible with a reduced set of options geographically. After 2 years travel contracts are out of the question. I'd have to get a staff nurse job at 2/3 my current pay, probably in less than ideal geographic region. After 3 years I can't even maintain a nursing license in even the most liberal states. I'd have to pay several thousand dollars and several hundred hours for a "refresher course". Then I'd be treated as a new graduate nurse in any hiring process, so entire swaths of the country would be unavailable to me for work.
More likely she is looking to rationalize her lifelong impulsive desire to free up her time to be spent as immediately as possible. It's just a lucky thing that it's hard to burn enough CO2 to melt the green scrim off the planet if your vices are as inexpensive as books, cookies, and the company of grouchy old menSee, this a perfect example of 7WB5 thinking and why different ideas are so important around here. Instead of looking to prevent all type I errors, at any cost (save 44X). She is looking to ensure there are no Type II errors.
classical_Liberal wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:54 amSometimes I wonder if part time would be better. What I've noticed is that I really don't want to go in the day before, and am exhausted by day two or three. After the first day though, I kind-of just become a robot and do it without further internal whining. Since it's the first day that bugs me the most, I'm not sure 1 shift a week or something similar would be any better. I'd definitely be less exhausted, but then I'd have to work much more of the year just to cover living expenses.
classical_Liberal wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2020 3:54 amWhen I first started this I really thought I'd want my time completely free and do it in chunks, like I am. What I noticed though is that I didn't really take advantage of that total freedom much. Many times I thought about going on a road trip, or taking a week to go visit someone, or whatever. I mostly didn't
This is one of the reasons why this forum is such a great place for me - I was not aware of the fact that there are people out there who are worse over-thinkers that I am! :) I have this comic as my desktop background at work and everyone is like - OMG that's SO you!classical_Liberal wrote: ↑Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:42 pmGenerally, I’m beginning to realize @horsewoman was right all along, I overthink everything.
