Investments Trade Log

[jacob]

I feel tempted to cash out and take it permanently.

It's interesting that TGT and WMT both beat significantly and unexpectedly for the end-consumers given how the intermediate goods and delivery sector are declining. So about that recession ... where does it first materialize?

[2Birds1Stone]

I feel tempted to cash out and take it permanently.

TGT? Or the market as whole?

[jacob]

https://www.apnews.com/3b21f8af2045410581e0af41661fb7a5

The next round of the trade wars with 15% tariffs on imported "consumer stuff" begins tomorrow, so you might want to get your xmas shopping in today (unless you're buying sneakers and TVs which got a reprieve until 12/15... or DIYing the gifts). This time the tariffs target consumers, so not mainly farmers. There seems to be some consternation on whether the retail sector will be able to pass the cost onto consumers or whether they'll have to eat the cost themselves and lower earnings. Probably some combination of both.

JPM estimates the tariffs will cost the average household $1000/year. That average household must spend a lot^H^H^H^Hn average amount

[Jason]

This reflects my thoughts on the matter:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/28/trump-a ... aucus.html

[Ego]

This reflects my thoughts on the matter:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/28/trump-a ... aucus.html

I see the threat of tariffs as a 'something for nothing' strategy for Trump. He will do nothing (not implement tariffs) or remove them when each industry provides the requisite campaign tribute he deems suitable . It is the perfect leverage as he has the ability to direct it with pinpoint accuracy against those who have not shown sufficient largesse. We shall see.

[Jason]

I think its safe to assume that while Trump believes that tariffs have economic benefits, he does not understand fully the economic repercussions of tariffs. It appears that those who do understand tariffs, and support his imposition of them, say he is correct in principal, but not strategy. It's for him, more of a political strategy. It plays into his isolationism and they have been taking advantage of us for years narrative. Whatever he does or doesn't do, at the most politically opportune moment, he will jump out from behind the curtain and say "We made the best deal" and no one, including both him, me and his base, will know or care as long as everyone's portfolio is shitting more green than a leprechaun on St Patrick's Day.

[Seppia]

@jacob
The retail sector operates at razor thin margins, so either the supplier take the hit, or the additional cost is going to be passed on to consumers 100%.
Brands with high product margins (Apple, P&G, etc) May be able to do so, but the cause of the increase being so obvious and known by the masses, I’d be surprised if they did.

[jacob]

ECB drops rate from -0.4% to -0.5%. USD rises further.

[Dream of Freedom]

Added to CHL @41.32. Long term investment.

[bryan]

ECB drops rate from -0.4% to -0.5%. USD rises further.

They did more than just that, right? https://www.philosophyofmoney.net/dragh ... -farewell/

https://twitter.com/teasri/status/1173559166369185792

So a "carry" and direct fiscal transfer from depositors to banks? Could be seen as a tax payable to banks; banks collecting rents based on their centrality.

[Mister Imperceptible]

Fed to continue repo operations until at least October 10, Thomas Cook collapses.

Chaos is a ladder.

[Dream of Freedom]

Added to DEA @21.17. It's up quite a bit from where I first bought it, but it's still reasonably priced given its growth rate and the stability of its tenets.

[Mister Imperceptible]

Entertaining article on Seeking Alpha by Manish Aurora

The Battle Of Trafalgar and The Failure Of Portfolio Theory

https://seekingalpha.com/article/429422 ... lio-theory

Edit: I remember reading his first article, excellent sense of humor.

Leverage: A Love Story

https://seekingalpha.com/article/427557 ... love-story

[Dream of Freedom]

Logging in to my TDAmeritrade account I was greeted with this message:

$0 commissions coming soon

Starting Thursday: $0 commissions on online stock, ETF, and options trades. Enjoy cutting-edge technology and award-winning investor education and service teams, with commission-free trading.

Turns out they are in a price war with Charles Schwab which dropped their commissions to zero earlier that day. Shares of Schwab fell 9.7% and TD Ameritrade lost 25.8% on the news.

[Dream of Freedom]

Added to UNH @221.79.

On a side note, I've decided that zero commissions means that with no fees to make small trade size uneconomical the compounding effect is more important. It is advantageous to buy more often.

[Mister Imperceptible]

S&P 500 creeps up above 3000 once again.

Established new long put position on SMH, added to long put position on XBI, all expiring Jan 2021.

[Dream of Freedom]

Added to JCAP @18.82. It's damned cheap for a company that has averaged 103.1% compound annual revenue growth for the last 3 years.

Established new long put position on SMH, added to long put position on XBI, all expiring Jan 2021.

So why those particular industries? I know you are a bear, but biotech isn't very economically sensitive. I'm curious what your reasoning is.

[Mister Imperceptible]

SMH is high equity beta and should be amongst the worst sufferers in a liquidity crisis.

XBI is to hedge my employment.

Edit: You can see the performance of XBI is similarly fantastic to SMH since 2009, tho the ebbs and flows are different. Biotech is speculative, going to see your doctor or to a hospital is not.

Nevertheless, you should check out the performance of both XBI and UNH in 2008 to check your thesis regarding the invulnerability of health care in general.

The Hilary tweet in 2015 helped temporarily crush XBI. In late 2019 and election year 2020 I fully expect Elizabeth Warren’s ravings to potentially impact my income. My income in 2015-2016 was not impacted, but Democrat-tweet plus liquidity crisis might make this time different.

Unlike some people, I am realistic about the future viability of my extreme salary.

[2Birds1Stone]

What do you consider an extreme salary?

[Mister Imperceptible]

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=9806&start=80#p197247

I am motivated.