SWR milestone record

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Seabourne
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Seabourne » Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:09 pm

Well, at the last Chicago get-together it was suggested that I should post about a successful across the finish line. I'll throw something up in the Journals, but for here I can pull out my trusty tracking spreadsheet (started in 2006). For the WR, i'm just going to use my ballpark current budget without worrying about historical spending, since in retirement is what we're all really shooting for (~$100/day = $36,525/year). For what it's worth, I'm using June numbers because 1) I have a large unusual investment that reprices 1/year in about March and 2) I started it after January 2006 and ballparked backwards a couple of months, so June is closer to real and 3) I retired June 1, 2018, so it gives a good end date snapshot:

WR
6/2006: 54.4%
6/2007: 38.6%
6/2008: 28.7%
6/2009: 26.0%
6/2010: 14.9%
6/2011: 10.4%
6/2012: 9.1%
6/2013: 7.4%
6/2014: 8.3%
6/2015: 6.6%
6/2016: 5.9%
6/2017: 4.6%
6/2018: 3.6%


notes: retired on 6/1/18 at age 39. Will see an increase in early 2019 as the price at which company stock is held is annually revalued and I get cashed out (had to leave the firm to be allowed to sell it), so while the 3.6% may seem a little aggressive, there is a reasonable bump coming as part of the exit. I'm estimating that the price change will mean 6/2019 ought to be right at 3.0%. While my wife has savings as well, I've been tracking them well before we met, so this is just mine, but covers all of our expenses - we are treating her savings as a safety backstop and they are ignored here. For what it's worth, I started paying attention and saving before this spreadsheet, but really only focused on it starting about 1-2 years earlier, so if you're starting out, this is a reasonably lucky but possible path.

cmonkey
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by cmonkey » Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:36 pm

Seabourne wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:09 pm
While my wife has savings as well, I've been tracking them well before we met, so this is just mine, but covers all of our expenses - we are treating her savings as a safety backstop and they are ignored here.
Nice! What would your SWR be if you included your wife's savings?

Seabourne
Posts: 30
Joined: Fri Jul 30, 2010 10:22 pm

Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Seabourne » Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:43 pm

right around the 3.0% I believe.

Edit: I suppose I ought to clarify what I'm actually counting as well: my numbers exclude the condo (because it's not an investment property) and the expenses continue to include the mortgage payment. If I netted out the outstanding mortgage and the total investments and decreased the spending by the P+I, my 6/2018 WR would be about 3.2%. So, a couple of backstops/rounding conservative numbers involved.

2Birds1Stone
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Location: Earth

Re: SWR milestone record

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:15 am

1/1/2011 - 120%
1/1/2012 - 80.0%
1/1/2013 - 58.5%
1/1/2014 - 36.7%
1/1/2015 - 20.7%
1/1/2016 - 14.4%
1/1/2017 - 8.8%
1/1/2018 - 6.4%
1/1/2019 - 4.2%

2/1/2019 - 3.88%

cmonkey
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by cmonkey » Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:34 pm

My SWR dropped from 4.89% to 3.46% today (*).




















* darn you Google Finance and your lying flakiness ... it's still fun to look at those numbers. :P

Douglas
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Douglas » Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:18 pm

month 23 was 2/1/2019

Image

2Birds1Stone
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Location: Earth

Re: SWR milestone record

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:40 am

1/1/2011 - 120%
1/1/2012 - 80.0%
1/1/2013 - 58.5%
1/1/2014 - 36.7%
1/1/2015 - 20.7%
1/1/2016 - 14.4%
1/1/2017 - 8.8%
1/1/2018 - 6.4%
1/1/2019 - 4.2%

3/1/2019 - 3.63

Kipling
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Location: London

Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Kipling » Mon Mar 25, 2019 4:22 pm

1/1/13 - 12.29%
1/1/14 - 12.57%
1/1/15 - 8.53%
1/1/16 - 8.67%
1/1/17 - 19.07%
1/1/18 - 8.75%
1/1/19 - 7.46%

Freedom_2018
Posts: 387
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2010 12:10 am

Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Freedom_2018 » Mon Mar 25, 2019 4:40 pm

Current = 1.846%

Would have to look into past data (hard to do while traveling) and see when it exactly went below 3%...but approximately more than 6 yrs ago.

cmonkey
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by cmonkey » Mon Mar 25, 2019 7:42 pm

Freedom_2018 wrote:
Mon Mar 25, 2019 4:40 pm
Current = 1.846%
Impressive! Other than JLF I don't know of anyone lower.

Freedom_2018
Posts: 387
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2010 12:10 am

Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Freedom_2018 » Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:50 pm

Thanks. I didn't know it was a competition :-)

Actually today I calculated my SWR after a long time..partly because for past few days I've been on Tamiflu and hence more on the forum.

I mostly keep a close eye on my $ burn rate, especially long term (multi year) burn rate and periodically check in on portfolio performance.

2Birds1Stone
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Location: Earth

Re: SWR milestone record

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Tue Apr 09, 2019 12:36 pm

1/1/2011 - 120%
1/1/2012 - 80.0%
1/1/2013 - 58.5%
1/1/2014 - 36.7%
1/1/2015 - 20.7%
1/1/2016 - 14.4%
1/1/2017 - 8.8%
1/1/2018 - 6.4%
1/1/2019 - 4.2%

4/1/2019 - 3.62%

Progress sure does seem to slow down a bit once you get below 4%

jacob
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by jacob » Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:09 pm

2Birds1Stone wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 12:36 pm
1/1/2011 - 120% ~ 6.91
1/1/2012 - 80.0% ~ 6.32
1/1/2013 - 58.5% ~ 5.87
1/1/2014 - 36.7% ~ 5.20
1/1/2015 - 20.7% ~ 4.37
1/1/2016 - 14.4% ~ 3.85
1/1/2017 - 8.8% ~ 3.14
1/1/2018 - 6.4% ~ 2.68
1/1/2019 - 4.2% ~ 2.07

4/1/2019 - 3.62% ~ 1.86
It's because the WR's show a 1/x relation to x which tends to be rather linear during the accumulation phase because it's dominated by earned income. The second column shows log2(100*) which inverts it. I suppose, I could also just have plotted 1/WR. That's of course just another way of saying that 2% is twice as much money as 4% which is twice as much as 8% and so on.

PS: Insofar this will become a foundation of various plots, I propose using log3(%) because 3% is the historically perpetual SWR. My agenda here would be to get away from the @#$@ 4% rule. If that metric is preferred, then log4(%) is better.

TopHatFox
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Location: FL; 25

Re: SWR milestone record

Post by TopHatFox » Tue Apr 09, 2019 2:00 pm

7%, woop woop

wolf
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by wolf » Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:52 pm

General question: When calculating the SWR, do you consider your total NW (including value of house, and maybe other things like gold, ... ) or do you exclude the value of such things, which doesn't produce any income?

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Bankai
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by Bankai » Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:28 am

Would including your house not be double counting its value? Its already sort of included by reducing your expenses. Say you have €100k house and €100k portfolio, and you spend €8k pa. If you include your house, your SWR is 4%, but your portfolio needs to grow by 8% pa to support this spending level since you can't exactly sell a bit of house each year.

Unless it's a rental property or you have a lodger.

I would still include it in calculating NW though.

2Birds1Stone
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:26 pm

I would only count the portion of home equity above and beyond the price of a dwelling I would be willing to downsize to.

Ex: You own a $100k home, and owe $25k on it. You could/would downsize to a $50k home as part of your draw-down strategy. I would count the $25k* equity I would have left over.

*I understand that in reality you would lose $$ on transaction costs during the sale and purchase of both properties, so this math is not exact. But it gets the point I'm trying to make.

Bankai makes a good point as well. If you plan on selling that home and renting, now your expenses increase by the cost of rent, minus the carrying costs of a home outside of the mortgage.

wolf
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by wolf » Sun Apr 14, 2019 2:56 am

@Bankai, 2B1S: Yes and Yes. Both of your answers make totally sense. Thanks for your feedback. I haven't reported my SWR with my home equity and I won't.

niemand
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Location: Woop Woop, Australia

Re: SWR milestone record

Post by niemand » Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:22 am

niemand wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:09 am
2014 -- 9%
2015 -- 7%
2018 -- 4.8%

IlliniDave
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Re: SWR milestone record

Post by IlliniDave » Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:19 am

I have a hard time with this thread because I keep changing the rules on myself.

Back in 2016 I reported 3.94%. In early 2019 that same calculation is 3.41%. Those numbers are computed as if all expenses were to be met from the stash. When I subtract off what outside income sources will take care of the number is 0.78% assuming I live to age 80.

I've also given myself a raise (for planning purposes anyway) since I'm leery of how things will go with medical costs and other things. At the higher spending rate the standalone number is 4.3% and the net-of-income number is 1.5%

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