Investments Trade Log

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jerry
Posts: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2010 5:28 pm

Post by jerry » Tue Aug 09, 2011 11:58 am

Eric, I have seen no evidence that technical analysis works in the long run. On the contrary, all of the unimpeached research that I am aware of says it does not work. All systems occasionally work or they wouldn't be systems, but the only consistent winners seem to be the robo traders with servers located a couple of ip hops away from the exchanges. Regular investors have no chance of playing that game.
Edit: Yesterday I placed 3 lowball "bets" on mrk, ge, and intc. I picked up mrk and missed intc by 8 cents. If the market drops today I may get the intc but the ge at 15 will probably take a bit longer.


eric
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon Nov 29, 2010 11:36 pm

Post by eric » Tue Aug 09, 2011 5:28 pm

That's fine. I'm not trying to convince anyone to use technical analysis. I'm merely suggesting that studying market cycles and reviewing market internals may be a useful component of analyzing more or less favorable times to risk your hard earned money. Doing so implies no prediction - just observation.
If you want to see the way a famous value investor uses such information, then check out this Jeremy Grantham article published in January:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/47607952/Jere ... 011-Letter
Just goes to show that there are few ways, all of which are imperfect, to determine some sense of underlying supply and demand in the market. A basic familiarity with such history and precedent probably doesn't hurt.
Best


jerry
Posts: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2010 5:28 pm

Post by jerry » Tue Aug 09, 2011 8:28 pm

I agree with that. I just think that published theories can't give you a direct edge because that knowledge is already factored into the market which is essentially what EMT says.
On the other hand, if someone develops a theory that works, they would have little incentive to publish it. They would just use it and get rich.


George the original one
Posts: 4834
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Post by George the original one » Tue Aug 09, 2011 8:39 pm

@jerry - don't give up on technical signals for the overall market. See http://www.buydonthold.com/category/blog/ for an example of using technical indicators in the real world... I've been watching the blog carefully since May 2010 and the indicators have been pretty much spot-on.


sshawnn
Posts: 460
Joined: Tue Mar 08, 2011 8:17 pm

Post by sshawnn » Tue Aug 09, 2011 8:58 pm

@dividendguy, @eric. Appreciate your thoughts on BAC. Eric, using your comments as a framework for some research, I think your spot on with the dead money comment. It may be a long while before BAC pays a worthwhile dividend. I used todays push to dump it just minutes ago for a nice profit.


DividendGuy
Posts: 441
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 9:58 pm

Post by DividendGuy » Tue Aug 09, 2011 11:36 pm

@sshawnn
Nicely done sir.


jerry
Posts: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2010 5:28 pm

Post by jerry » Wed Aug 10, 2011 2:30 pm

@george. I checked out buydonthold and I found limited and very short term back testing so it is hard to draw any conclusion without reading the book or watching it for a while.
I will follow it myself for a while and see how he does. I will also try and find out if he is a billionaire or at least very rich. I believe that is the best indicator of a truly successful strategy.


ExpatERE
Posts: 220
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 5:49 pm

Post by ExpatERE » Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:09 pm

Another great day in the markets eh??
I used todays drop to purchase HGIC just before close. Anyone else make any purchases today??


DividendGuy
Posts: 441
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 9:58 pm

Post by DividendGuy » Thu Aug 11, 2011 12:04 am

@ExpatERE
Nice pickup. HGIC is trading well below my cost basis. Insurance has been getting HAMMERED.
I wouldn't mind picking up AFL at these levels.
I am still a little short on funds until the early part of next month, but I may make a stab at a buy anyway.


ExpatERE
Posts: 220
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 5:49 pm

Post by ExpatERE » Thu Aug 11, 2011 12:23 am

DG
HGIC has been on my watch list for several months. I was anticipating they would have problems with the storms that hit in the early spring. This was revealed in their Q2 earnings report that came out Monday with the share price being hit as a result. I don't have to tell you what the rest of the week has done to the price. No way of knowing if the markets are going to go lower, but I'm happy with a YOC of 5.49%
AFL is also on my watch list. I had not been that excited about it due to the yield being just over 2% but now with it over 3% it's got my attention. Seems like the financial sector is getting hammered over the debt problems in both the US and Europe. There are a lot of bargins to be had if you can stomach the risk.


Hoplite
Posts: 489
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2010 1:03 am

Post by Hoplite » Thu Aug 11, 2011 12:48 am

@ExpatERE,
One purchase today just before close: PCL, a timberland REIT that I had owned for years and sold a few months ago. 4.6% yield and it goes ex on the 12th (Friday). It's always been a plodder, but that looks ok right now.


ExpatERE
Posts: 220
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 5:49 pm

Post by ExpatERE » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:13 am

@hoplite
I've been looking at REITs for a few months as well. I can't decide if I should keep them in my taxable account or a trad. or roth IRA. Any thoughts??


dragoncar
Posts: 1317
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2010 7:17 pm

Post by dragoncar » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:27 am

REITs almost always in an IRA, because their dividends are generally not fully qualified (i.e. you'll pay your marginal tax rate on the dividends). This may not be an issue if you are ERE, because your marginal tax rate will be low.


Hoplite
Posts: 489
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2010 1:03 am

Post by Hoplite » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:34 am

Different REITs classify dividends differently. @dragoncar is right as to many REIT dividends, i.e., not fully qualified thus treated as income and better kept under a tax umbrella (the regular IRA vs Roth comparison should be made on anticipated taxable income and the compound effect of the initial tax savings over the number of years to withdrawal).
But timberland REITS are different:

http://forisk.wordpress.com/2011/01/19/ ... dividends/
Most timber REIT distributions are taxed as long term capital gains from the sale of timber, so I like to hold them in a taxable account.


George the original one
Posts: 4834
Joined: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:28 am
Location: Wettest corner of Orygun

Post by George the original one » Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:19 am

Might some REITs also provide "return of capital" as some or all of their distributions, which would not be taxable?


jerry
Posts: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2010 5:28 pm

Post by jerry » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:32 pm

In a rare case of good judgement concerning the market, I decided to get completely out 3 weeks ago and wait for the DOW to hit 10500.
I have not waited for 10500 but I am now long on GE, MRK, T, INTC, NLY, WM, TOT. I plan on continuing to buy mostly dividend stocks held by Vanguard Wellesley if the market continues downward.


JohnnyH
Posts: 2007
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 6:00 pm
Location: Rockies

Post by JohnnyH » Thu Aug 25, 2011 3:16 am

Call me crazy but I'm betting AAPL works on closing its opening gap tomorrow :)


dragoncar
Posts: 1317
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2010 7:17 pm

Post by dragoncar » Thu Aug 25, 2011 4:11 am

Right now, AAPL is down 5%. That seems low to me, but it sounds like you're saying it's high. I don't know if you were paying attention to Apple between the time SJ left and the time he returned, but it was pretty bleak.


JohnnyH
Posts: 2007
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 6:00 pm
Location: Rockies

Post by JohnnyH » Thu Aug 25, 2011 5:24 am

Yeah, I wouldn't touch it until min 10m after the open. But I bet the gap closes...


DividendGuy
Posts: 441
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 9:58 pm

Post by DividendGuy » Fri Aug 26, 2011 12:35 am

I purchased 18 shares of COP at $63.65/share on 8/22/11. This doubles my position with ConocoPhillips. This will likely be the last energy purchase for a while, as energy now comprises almost 25% of my portfolio. I feel that's high, and typically would like one sector to comprise no more than 20% of the portfolio.
My next purchase will likely be in the financial or consumer staple sector.


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