Almost two months went by...
First weeks I was traveling, then I was busy, and then two weeks ago a serious health problem stroke our life... I don't want to talk about it.
At some point I'll review objectives & al. and I must remember to post about "The life of Pi"
Now, I wanted to write here because I made some re-shaping into our expense tracking and wanted to leave the reasons and intentions behind.
Rent or own
I read 7th chapter of ERE's book, and then I also read the approach to rent vs own in chapter 6.. which made me think (thanks) but I think it may be wrong (

)...
Maybe Rent vs own is the wrong question: it's three decissions in one!
Decission one: You decide where you want to live, and according to that, the market sets a rent and this is your housing cost.
Decission two: you decide to invest in a house to rent.. you must ponder annual rent minus costs against acquisition cost, and if the return is ok, you go for it.
When you decide to buy a house to live in, you are taking the decission to invest in a house to rent with a reliable tenant (yourself), and thus you should be sure the return is good for you, and you should track the rent as a return of the investment you made (and consequently, the house must be in your NW as a producing asset.. at real cost (not acquisition)).
As a tennant you shouldn't forget that your living expense is the "market rent" for your house, and track it as it.
Decission three: You may decide to leverage the house with a mortage... It's ok, as far as you know where you are going!
When you leverage you incur in a financing cost (interests) and compromise yearly payments for a few years:
- Financing cost may be fixed (so you don't add any uncertainity to the investment, or variable in which case you add one degree of uncertainity and you must run the different scenarios to be sure your investment makes sense in the long run or know when you must react and how..
- The compromised payments will affect your cash flow, so you may need to resize your emergency fund..
In exchange for those, you benefit from the returns of all the asset....
When is it attractive to invest in real state?
Jacob gives the formula (the concept, I may change the form of it) :
% return = ( Annual rent - annual expenses ) / Asset cost
And now let's talk about boundaries:
- It is ok to assume that as far as there are no big changes in the housing demand / offer / market, the rent will go up around the inflation.
- It is also reasonable (I think Jacob states that too somewhere in the book) that in the very long term, asset cost should also move around inflation.
So we should try not to buy in a hot market or in a dying city.. ok so far!
Now we move on one year, and we find that, since both rent, cost and acquisition cost moved up the inflation, the return stays aprox the same...
But our asset gained value over the year!!!!
So maybe we should add asset value inflation in the formula:
% return = ( Annual rent - annual expenses + asset value inflation) / asset cost
And thus your main risks are: overestimating the right rent (right rent = the one that allows you to rent continuously to reliable tennants), seriously underestimating the asset and renting expenses and wrong timing (this last being a crucial one, according to the frequent bubbles...)
What about it??
Portfolio control strategy
So far, I have created my portfolio tracking sheet with the ideas above, which I will update yearly or when conditions change and take action if necessary.
Reviewing our decissions over the years under those criteria:
1- We timed very badly the market.. twice!! (bought a small house just to realize we wanted a family that didn't fit in the house, so we bought a second.. first in the bubble and second after the peek, but before the gross correction) so we suffered from a very severe loss of money we didn't have (we leveraged and in spain mortage stays with the person, not with the house).
2- Once bought the second house, we decided to keep the first and rent it: the correction had already started, so it made and makes sense. Additionally, thanks to an external factor such as the low interests for the last decade, it has given a nice return..
Now let's see what happens with interests the next years (when and how much they go up: they may make the returns schrink or even negative) and if that doesn't happen, it seems like a good idea not to do nothing...
Also, I must keep an eye in the market just in case it may go up enough as to make the sell atractive: a tougher decission here, if markets were so easy to time...
I will now start thinking about starting a second stream in my portfolio: index investing..
Needs and wants
I also started changing my expense tracking sheet to show these categories:
Needs: Housing (at market rent), food, water & energy
Strategic / Basic wants: Children education, Communications, Car
Wants: All the rest
Let's see where it takes us
