Climate Change!

Intended for constructive conversations. Exhibits of polarizing tribalism will be deleted.
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steveo73
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by steveo73 »

George the original one wrote:steveo, that makes this final. You come into the discussion saying you can't find any scientific range for the effects, I tell you my experience and show you the science, and then you don't bother discussing the science & switch to politics. There's really nothing more we can discuss when you do that, just like you did two years ago and it reinforces my earlier comment that you are not qualified to pass judgement on the science because you do not engage it.
I honestly believe that you do not have the ability to rationally discuss this topic. I am definitely qualified to discuss the science on this topic. I have tried to do this with you on multiple occasions but you are antagonistic and irrational.

You have to accept the reality of the situation and that is that you don't know everything about this topic and the science is far from as clear cut as yourself and other alarmists want to make it out to be. Unfortunately you and your like have politicised any discussion on this topic.
Last edited by steveo73 on Wed Dec 07, 2016 12:29 am, edited 1 time in total.

steveo73
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by steveo73 »

Ego wrote:Somewhat off topic but I find it absolutely fascinating that the elders here are arguing about Trump and climate change while the young folks are talking about sex toys, tattoos and which parts of their bodies are ideal for piercing.
This is interesting. I think that politics can often be a distraction to give your life some meaning. It's like supporting a sports team.

sky
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Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2011 2:20 am

Re: Climate Change!

Post by sky »

vexed87 wrote:@chenda, and if you go even further back... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doggerland
That is my tribe's homeland, Atland.

The Old Man
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by The Old Man »

http://mashable.com/2016/11/28/west-ant ... U4amI7UqqE
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases ... 112316.php

And it has begun!

"It's generally accepted that it's no longer a question of whether the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will melt, it's a question of when," said study leader Ian Howat, associate professor of earth sciences at Ohio State.

Now, would be a good time to sell your beachfront property.

George the original one
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by George the original one »

theanimal wrote:Ok so if markets are going to go down long term what's the strategy? T-Bills? Avoiding large markets and investing locally?
Focus on income rather than net worth. The income should be sourced from activities that are as independent of market collapses as possible. Net worth is only important when you have to dig deep into your pockets to get out of a jam.

An example would be a typical dividend growth portfolio during the Great Recession: income declined by about 10% even though the portfolio value declined by 30%. Within two years, the income returned to prior level while the portfolio value took about 4 years to return.

[While I'm fond of a dividend growth portfolio, I'm not recommending it as a universal solution since we all know there are many ways to solve this problem]

Gilberto de Piento
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by Gilberto de Piento »

I think that politics can often be a distraction to give your life some meaning. It's like supporting a sports team.
I see this as a big part of why people can't compromise on politics. A lot of people enjoy the in group/out group drama and are uninformed about and uninterested in policy. Making sure the other team is down is all that matters.

stand@desk
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by stand@desk »

What would happen to the world if it cooled 2-5 C? Would it be terrible for the planet as well? Like shifting ocean currents and more droughts and storms etc? Winter has fiercely come back to the part of the world where I live and http://www.accuweather.com/en/ru/yakuts ... ast/290150 Yaktusk is looking pretty cold right now.

I read in a book a couple years ago they could inject fine particles to some degree in the atmosphere that would have nothing but a mirroring affect to deflect a portion of the Sun's rays away from the surface, limiting the heating by the Sun, thus saving the Earth! When other Scientists/Climatologists etc were asked about this phenomenon they said it was too risky or too crazy etc. It might have been in one of the Freakonomics books. They also had an idea to thwart Hurricanes..

jacob
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by jacob »

@s@d -

Last time the average world temperature was -5C lower than it is now was during the last ice age. The local climate in Chicago, which was covered by vast amounts of ice at that time, was ... rather different in the -5C world than it is now---more like the interior of Greenland buried under a kilometer of ice if you want a modern equivalent. Certainly not fit for gardening (permaculture or not) or running major trading hub/city; or solvable by buying a better snowsuit, cranking the thermostat up a bit or weatherstripping the windows :lol:

The point here is that a shift of a few degrees is a much bigger deal that most laymen apparently appreciate.

The ocean currents were definitely shifted. Huge polar caps stretching down to 45-55deg latitude would be somewhat of a show stopper. Several places that used to be land are now covered, e.g. Doggerland mentioned above. A map of the world would look rather strange/unfamiliar in certain places.

Image

You may recognize the outline of what would become Britain over the next few thousand years as oceans rose. Continental Europe is a bit harder to make out.

Almost all post-neolithic civilization (7+ billion people, the location of major human centers, and the limited/handful of food crops humans rely on (wheat, potato, squash, etc.) developed on a world map that looks very close to what we see today. The Holocene climate has been very stable in the past 10000 years until things started changing/accelerating about ~100 years ago.

Maybe the reason civilized humans have such a hard time appreciating that "climate change" really means "changing climates" and not just reprogramming the HVAC thermostat by a few degrees over the next few hundred years is because it's NEVER happened to civilized humans before. There's zero cultural memory when it comes to climate change. We're only culturally aware or familiar with the one we've always been in.

By "civilized" I mean cultures which grow crops and have permanent cities.

As for the aerosol thing ... we're mainly talking sulfates and nitrates. This is well-understood by now and fully included in the complex/integrated models. Now, we already inject these particles into the atmosphere via car exhaust, coal burning, etc. near the surface and they reflect incoming sunlight which provides a cooling effect. If you ever noticed a white haze over a major city, that's what we're talking about. To you it might be better known as smog ... but as far as the climate is concerned, it keep things a bit cooler than they would otherwise be. The combined cooling effect from these emissions corresponds to removing about 25 years of CO2 emissions ... so kinda like taking a loan in the bank. Unlike CO2 which stays up for thousands of years, aerosols wash out/break down quickly. Therefore, if we all transitioned to electric cars, PV, ... it would be the radiative forcing equivalent of adding in an additional 25 years worth of CO2 emissions in short order.

Regardless, the geoengineering idea is to increase sulfate emissions but put them in the stratosphere instead where they stay up for about 10 years (instead of 1-2). This will have a cooling effect, w/o the associated smog problems down on the ground (e.g. acid rain, asthma), so that's the proposed plan.

Note, that all these fixes to solve the radiative forcing problem (including giant mirrors in space) does nothing to solve the chemistry problem, i.e. ocean acidity.

chenda
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by chenda »

Recent evidence has suggested Doggerland was highly populated, been rich in hunting and fishing opportunities.

Dogger island, formally hills now bank, may have partially survived as late as 5000 BC. Perhaps only home to seasonal fisherman. It's speculated that flood myths, which are found in most parts of the world, maybe a legacy of this period.

jacob
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by jacob »

@chenda - Yeah, I found this interesting:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilgamesh_flood_myth ... which is a much earlier version of the story about Noah's ark, featuring Sumerian gods playing different parts and more technical detail too. What's interesting that unlike(?*) the Genesis story, which suggests a deluge, these earlier version(s) clearly mention the breach of a dike, i.e. a landmass/construct that holds back major waters. This would have made the eventual disaster a bit easier to forecast/risk-manage too.

(*) I'll accept corrections if I'm wrong here. I claim no expertise or understanding of religious matters/ancient history just because I "took a class in religion" back in school during my late teens.

Modern equivalent experience (New Orleans) suggest that people who live behind levies in areas that are prone to extreme weather would be wise to store an inflatable under the roof of their house and remember to bring an axe/saw to break trough said roof if need be. It's a rather big improvement to have a boat and an axe over lacking either of those. Also, bring your most important possessions along. These days it would be various personal documents, pictures, etc. and not seed potatoes and prized breeding animals. Well, some might disagree which is fine by me but if so I recommend getting a bigger boat!

DSKla
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by DSKla »

Mythology is one of my interests, and I can't tell you how many indigineous North and South American flood myths I've read. Additionally, most of them attribute the splitting of tribes and languages to being separated by a massive flood.

And like the Noah story, most of the stories include a person or group that was warned ahead of time and built a raft or relocated to higher ground, the raft is often grounded on a mountain, and people venture back down slowly when the waters recede.

If you work on the hypothesis that a lot of myths are born from histories that are condensed into allegory and passed down orally in a memorable form, you might be inclined to read it as a relatively quick rise in global sea level (some of these stories even come from non-coastal river people who tell of the river swelling) that a small percentage of people saw coming. The "building a raft" might be an after the fact metaphor for making preparations and relocating to higher ground. And those are the ones who survive (don't starve from loss of hunting and foraging grounds or agriculture if they had it).

Most likely a big spike in sea level didn't occur nearly as quickly as the myths tell, but I suppose it's possible that an event like meltwater pulse 1a--though probably a more recent event--could have happened more rapidly than we suspect. Certainly low lying areas could have been inundated in a few short years, even if the entire event really did take hundreds of years.

Edit: and while the Noah flood emphasizes the rain, most of the ones I've seen don't mention rain. They describe either the sea or the river rising up to swallow most of the land.

Gilberto de Piento
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by Gilberto de Piento »

Trump's choice for head of the EPA looks like more of a friend to the coal industry than the environment:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/07/us/po ... .html?_r=0
As Mr. Pruitt has sought to use legal tools to fight environmental regulations on the oil and gas companies that are a major part of his state’s economy, he has also worked with those companies. A 2014 investigation by The Times found that energy lobbyists drafted letters for Mr. Pruitt to send, on state stationery, to the E.P.A., the Interior Department, the Office of Management and Budget and even President Obama, outlining the economic hardship of the environmental rules.

theanimal
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by theanimal »

The Age of Stupid

A European documentary on climate change and resource depletion. It's a different perspective than most documentaries, based in a devastated future world (2055) and looking back at events happening today and the past that led to the problem. If you've read a lot on these topics, there's nothing really new here. The reviews on IMDB were interesting to read. Apparently this was paradigm changing for many people.

7Wannabe5
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

What I have learned so far...Seems like one of the problems is that there really aren't very many climate scientists, and scientific education up to the level of B.S in STEM field actually magnifies differences in viewpoint, depending on both "cui bono" and ideology. I took a brief quiz to identify my ideology. I am moderately egalitarian (as opposed to hierarchical) and right on the boundary of "individualistic" and "communitarian" in my ideology. Therefore, I am on the "free market" fringe of those who are likely to want to believe in climate change.

Since I reside in an economic zone which is highly linked to the automotive industry, it makes perverse sense that the level of scientific literacy (as opposed to overall literacy or level of intelligence) I perceive in members of my peer group is actually inversely correlated to desire to believe in climate change. Therefore, my personal frustration involves the attempt to make use of my decades old and greatly decayed B.S. in mathematics to create convincing argument for people who know that I do not know how a diesel engine functions. My second dilemma would be that it bums me out to not be able to paint a bright picture for the future of the 5 year old refugees whom I teach.

So, my question for the members of this forum might be "Is there a free market solution to global climate change and/or peak oil that does not involve terrible, relatively early, form of death (violence/starvation/infectious disease previously eradicated/poisoning through contamination) for approximately 4/5ths of the current or likely to be born in next 20 years human population?"

BeyondtheWrap
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by BeyondtheWrap »

George the original one wrote:I think stilts would be more appropriate. ;)
Can confirm. In my waterfront community, all new houses are to be built on stilts raising them 13 feet off the ground. I really gotta move out of this place before it becomes the next Venice.

George the original one
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by George the original one »

Climate Change Belief Levels

0 - "No climate change. The world is as it always has been and will always be. I distrust scientists and I've seen no difference in climate."

1 - "Climate change happens so slowly the only effects we have to worry about happen on ice age scales. Modern society is absolutely not affecting climate change. I don't believe there is scientific consensus and I've seen no difference in climate."

2 - "Climate change happens so slowly the only effect we have to worry about takes centuries to be noticeable. Very unlikely modern society has had an effect because there is inadequate understanding of modern society's effects. If modern society does have an effect, it is short term because there are limitations in the climate (or there is inadequate understanding of modern society's effects on climate change). I don't believe there is scientific consensus and I've seen no difference in climate. If a problem crops up, they'll quickly find a solution for it."

3 - "Climate change happens and the effects are noticeable within two generations. It does not matter whether human society has an effect on climate change because the change is rapid enough (and/or it is unlikely we can slow/reverse the effects) that we should be planning to work around the effects . I have either noticed effects and/or I believe scientific consensus has been reached."

4 - "Climate change happens and effects are noticeable within two generations. Climate change is likely accelerating due to human society, therefore it is necessary to change human society in order to decrease/delay the effects of climate change. At the very least, we should be planning to work work around the effects. It is a pity that we didn't start taking action sooner since it takes 30+ years for action to take effect. I have either noticed effects and/or I believe scientific consensus has been reached."

5 - "Climate change happens, it is definitely accelerating due to human society, and the effects are noticeable within two generations. Changing human society is the only way to decrease/delay the effects of climate change even though the future is getting more dire due to the previous 30 years delay in action since it takes 30+ years for action to take effect. I have either noticed effects and/or I believe scientific consensus has been reached."

6 - "Climate change happens, it is definitely accelerating due to human society, and the planet is past the tipping point, so society is doomed. My future will be sweaty/underwater/crowded/hungry/stormy, so we might as well end it all sooner rather than later to reduce the suffering."

Anyone want to modify these levels?

Dragline
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by Dragline »

-1: Gets understanding of science from lies propagated by Breitbart and gets mad and makes up conspiracy stories when called out on fabricated story with erroneous conclusions:

https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherChan ... 948530921/

7Wannabe5
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

5.5 b- Climate change happens, it is definitely accelerating due to human society, and the effects are noticeable already to anybody willing to look at the body of evidence, or attempting to rationally plan a garden. Changing some aspects of human behavior is the only way to decrease/delay the effects of climate change. If humans do not decide how to change their behavior, then nature will decide for us. Since nature doesn't give a special flying f*ck about us, and since the historical record reveals that humans are unlikely to reach bottom-up consensus on need for action until rivers are on fire or major metropolises are underwater (which likely will happen even if CO2 emissions were halted today due to irreversible effects in Greenland and Antarctica) , my only remaining hope is pinned on some anonymous smart kid in Asia, perhaps not yet born.

For example:

http://www.amgs.or.kr/New/common/journal/vol3_no.2.PDF

jen
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by jen »

I don't understand the attitude expressed that 'climate change' is so obvious, so obviously bad, and so obviously man-made. Other than it is obvious that the climate changes and always has, regardless of human life.

Apparently most scientists don't even think that.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor ... dfb016171b

But average people are expected to google their way to certainty about it, reaching the 'politically correct' consensus, and then radically alter their lifestyles to avert disaster? The predictions of doom seem quite far-fetched when they aren't entirely vague, and the promoters condescending and bullying. Persuasion-wise, there is much lacking in getting people to see the 'obvious' truth.

daylen
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Re: Climate Change!

Post by daylen »

+1 jen

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