Investments Trade Log

[Chad]

Yes, the relationship between their recommendations and what they buy would be interesting. The myth of the Chinese wall on Wall Street.

[George the original one]

While trying to find any bargains in the world of dividend growth, I came across this nice reminder:
http://valuentumbrian.tumblr.com/post/1 ... ut-for-how

It was a good reminder that having stop losses is useful.

[jennypenny]

Shoulda bought MOS the other day.

It's still on my watch list with AGU, TDY, DE, HCP, and PPL (want to see what kind of hit PPL takes today after the miss).

edit: Forgot ADM on my watch list.

[jacob]

@Chad - If you're looking at CAT and DE, check out CMI.

[Chad]

@jacob
Thanks for the heads up. I actually bought some of that for my dad last week. It's definitely on my list.

[George the original one]

Thanks for the tips, gave me the nudge I needed.

[Dragline]

I bought some MMP on Thursday.

[jennypenny]

Tempted this morning. Added GBX to my watch list.

[jennypenny]

@Chad - If you're looking at CAT and DE, check out CMI.

Hey, next time you give a stock tip, mention that it's about to pop 12% so we know to jump right in.

[Chad]

It's even up on down days this week.

Anyone looking at HPQ? It isn't going to grow, but all the ratios are deep in value territory and it pays a really nice dividend.

[cmonkey]

I've had CMI on my list since about September. Should have bought then...dang it.

[cmonkey]

Is anyone looking at VIAB? They don't have a long history of dividends but the fundamentals look very solid despite the bad year and they are tanking right now.....yield is over 4.5%. P/E of 5.12.

[Chad]

I haven't been looking at VIAB, but have been watching DIS. VIAB, and maybe other media companies, may need some of my attention. Though, I'm seeing a 3.7% dividend and 9.1 P/E. Not necessarily bad.

[Dragline]

Sold some O and some EDV today.

[Dragline]

Bought some PCL today.

[jennypenny]

bought GBX

[Chad]

Ok, why is GBX down so much? It's earnings are double from last 2015 Q1. It's revenue is up, but not quite as much. It's PE is 3.6 and has a dividend of 3.12% with a payout ratio of 8% . What am I missing other than the possibility of a potential economic slowdown? I haven't been following GBX.

[jennypenny]

I think (1) shorts, and (2) TRN's results, although I think GBX is in a much better position than TRN so their outlook is better.

I'm already thinking I didn't buy enough.

[George the original one]

From my brief research, GBX builds railcars and orders are slowing due to the glut of oil (presumably oil transported by rail). They've recently guided downwards inline with analyst opinions. Earlier this month, they did some executive shuffling (created a new vice president position, moved the CFO to that position, and promoted a long-time staffer to CFO), which sounds like they're trying to plan for alternative expansions.

GBX has turned dividends off/on in the past, so they're unreliable in that regard. The recent higher valuations by Mr. Market appear to have been a historical anomaly and we're back in the price range they've had in the past.

[jacob]

Maybe they're suffering the same fate as dry bulkers. Is there a rail shipping cost index? How does it look compared to history? How long does a railcar last and how long does it take to add capacity? What's the current ratio for GBX? Do they have loans coming due in 1-3 years? How does their running/operating costs compare with competitors?

It seems like the commodity business is currently where banks were in 2008. A lot of capacity was ordered a few years ago when business was booming. There's a lag time bringing it online (mines takes several years, ships take a couple of years, rail takes.. how long?) and it's all coming on now. The survivors will likely be those who have the lowest debt; the lowest marginal costs; and the cash to gobble up the failures.