Investments Trade Log

[Chad]

@JP & Dragline

Yeah, GS is on my watchlist too. And, I too, usually get in a little too early.

Oil is really taking a bath, which is a little surprising given the saber rattling between the Saudis & Iranians. This makes this downturn more interesting than previous ones.

[George the original one]

OK, I can follow that AAPL is tanking, following the tech forecast. But why is GS following suit? Do they hold a lot of oil or is it fear over rising interest rates or ???

[Chad]

I'm not really sure why GS is going down. Probably multiple reasons.

What I'm really interested in is what happens when China opens. They took off the automatic trading stop, so it will be interesting to see if they blow through it or if everyone panics less because they won't be prevented from selling.

[jennypenny]

Anyone planning on selling into the rally? I have a couple of fish that I might throw back if they climb high enough today.

[cmonkey]

IBM at 4.3% yield and P/E of 8.22 in case anyone is looking for a deal today... of course you might get a better deal tomorrow the way things are going

[jennypenny]

ouch

Some of it is crazy though. SN is trading below cash on hand. MORL is up to a 46% yield.

[jacob]

@jp, cmonkey - Those ratios probably reflect past numbers. Does SN still have that cash or how does it compare to its current liabilities? Will the next dividend from MORL be as high as the previous one? (One thing I've noticed about yahoo finance is that they don't update the yield calculation if the dividend is cut to zero.)

[jennypenny]

SN's cash flow is from recent Q4 reporting and I calculate MORL's div based on the current div projections of its components.

Not my first bear market rodeo.


edit: I should say that I haven't bought yet. UBS's ETNs are getting close to redemption levels so, for now, I'm just watching. I used MORL as an example.

There are also high yields to be had in some income funds like PKO, GDO, PCI, and PDI. Just FYI.

[almostthere]

@jp I am also monitoring the high yield CEF space. I'd just note a couple things. If you look at histogram of these type funds, they are fat tailed. The ones I am looking are at the bottom 3% percentile of 15 year historical prices. That's pretty good until you look at the actual graph, the tail keeps going. The downward momentum seems so strong, I see no reason to jump in yet.
One interesting one is TEI, Franklin Templeton Emerging Market Income, its 20% cash and trading at 17% discount. If the cash was factored out, the discount would be 21.5%. There are some drawbacks, the annual report says something like 59% is below investment grades, but it does not say how much is CCC. It also holds mostly frontier market bonds - think Serbia and Iraq. I'd bet that scares people. The thing I really don't get though is that it has no leverage and yet has the same volatility as very leveraged similar funds. Long term the fund has done a good job relative to similar funds that just deteriorate over time.

[I(E)reland]

Anybody considering TWTR? I know there are issues but its a strong brand and seems really beaten down...

[jennypenny]

@almostthere--I haven't bought anything yet this year except adding to OHI and VTR. I'm just watching for now. I'm interested in using these funds so I want to see how they do during this downturn.

Thanks for the info on TEI. I haven't looked at many Franklin Templeton funds. I started looking at Eaton Vance's funds this weekend.

[cmonkey]

Those ratios probably reflect past numbers.

I use Google Finance for those types of number and they are updated pretty quickly once numbers are out. Usually within 24 hours. P/E and yield are actually live calculated based on current price.

[cmonkey]

Looking at the 5 year chart for MORL, their dividend is all over the place but is heavily weighted toward the Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct months suggesting a quarterly pattern. Is it just based on whatever they can pay out in any given month? Looks like this month is .71 ; 30% yield.

Interesting read for anyone considering it.

[C40]

I bought some EV this morning. ~3.9% yield, consistent historical ~10% dividend growth. PE 15. Their yield used to not be as good. It looks to me like they had a huge earnings jump a year or two again, and now a slight drop this year. People freaked out over the drop so now the yield is pretty high.

[jennypenny]

@cmonkey -- MORL's divs are irregular because of the components. See this article for more information.

I guess somebody else did the math on SN. Up another 30% today.

[jennypenny]

Anyone looking at stuff like MOS, DE, or AGU yet? I might dip my toe in. I'm slowly refilling my commodities basket. I added to OHI and VTR last week, so my REIT basket is now full. If gold holds at this level, I'll add to it slowly as well.

FYI, I've closed my trading fund. I've basically got three piles now. The first has cash (for our EF) and will have just enough in income funds to pay our bills. The second has the kids' education money, which is mostly in muni funds at the moment. The third is the behemoth that I'm shifting into a more aggressive allocation since we won't need it for a long time, if ever. I'm still going to tinker with it constantly, but only within the confines of the target allocation. According to the Book of Jacob, I'm still technically 'trading' but it's part of an overall strategy instead of my usual smash and grab trading.

[Chad]

Anybody considering TWTR? I know there are issues but its a strong brand and seems really beaten down...

I have bought TWTR. I like it long-term. Though, I don't think comparing it to Facebook is the correct comparison. I actually think the analysts making this comparison are making a huge mistake. TWTR will never be Facebook and they shouldn't try. TWTR is a more nuanced, more accessible, and more elite social media.

When I say "elite" I'm not suggesting the people on there are better people than those who are not. I'm suggesting it's a great tool for high achievers to be more focused on the appropriate information and to have direct contact with people who are normally inaccessible. For instance, I have had conversations on TWTR with multiple high level investment people (Asness, Ritholtz, etc.) and other interesting public people (Dan Carlin, Tim Ferriss, etc.). The discussions with them are secondary to using it as a filter for good information.

When TWTR finally realizes how they should focus I do see it recovering, but I don't see it exploding up for a big long run like Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc.

[Dragline]

I sold some TLT last week and bought some XLP.

[Chad]

I'm thinking about picking up more Apple. It's a cash machine, with a very very sticky user base because of the integration between the hardware, software, and their ecosystem. If the rumors are true about the wireless charging iPhone 7 or 7S then I'm really not worried about slowing growth.

Also, this doesn't hurt either:

https://kirkburgess.wordpress.com/2016/ ... n-8-years/

@jenny
I've been eyeing DE and CAT for a while. DE is less risky and not as tied to emerging markets/commodities as much, but also a little less upside than CAT.

I have also been looking at the POT and MOS. It's not like the world will need less food in the next 10 years and they have nice high dividends that they can easily pay while we wait. Though, JP Morgan just downgraded MOS to neutral. Not that these analysts are usually right. Actually, they seem to be contrarian indicators most of the time.

[jennypenny]

Not that these analysts are usually right. Actually, they seem to be contrarian indicators most of the time.

Or are covering their own positions. I've heard from several people this week that Stifel Nicolaus is actively trying to drive down TWTR to cover their short.

It's always interesting to compare the analyst statements at GS with GS's buying patterns on Relational Stocks.