Investments Trade Log

[slimicy]

Bought a few JAN 2017 TWTR 60.00 Calls. I think the call side is depressed due to all the M&A talk, but I don't see that happening. I really don't understand why analysts are so down on it, it's the only social media that EVERYONE I know uses.

[Chad]

Bought a few JAN 2017 TWTR 60.00 Calls. I think the call side is depressed due to all the M&A talk, but I don't see that happening. I really don't understand why analysts are so down on it, it's the only social media that EVERYONE I know uses.

They aren't doing what Wall Street wants quick enough. But, I agree, it's actually useful compared to most social media. I like it long-term. They are going to have a unique market (high income, high educated, power users) to target once they figure out how to.

http://www.pewinternet.org/2015/01/09/d ... atforms-2/

[cmonkey]

Did anyone pick up CAT today? They are down 5-7%.

I decided to put my Sept funds in a bit early and catch them at 4.65% yield on cost (they are historically around 3%). Was thinking of going with oil stocks this month, but CAT surprised me.

[Chad]

There is going to be downward pressure on CAT's stock as long as the Chinese economy is an issue and commodity prices are pressured. Though, in the long run it will be fine.

[cmonkey]

Agree on CAT. There are just too many good buys right now but I think it'll last for a while.

I'm in Dragline's camp. In reality it won't matter much except to the psychology of the investors. The amounts are going to be so small (.25%) and so infrequent (they are adamant the raises won't always come one right after the other) they won't make a material difference for a while.

Its interesting that economies seem to be sputtering along even with rates so low. Reading the last book club selection I'm astonished that rates were that high at one point (17% CDs!), and I'm left wondering if rates would ever get even to single digits again (2-5%) given current slowing trends despite all the efforts being undertaken by central banks.

[Chad]

An interesting article concerning long-term oil investment:

http://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/the-col ... le?ref=yfp

Also, and unfortunately, probably a good sign for the defense stocks.

[cmonkey]

Also consider that Russia and the US have been the only countries hiding a decline in production from the rest of the world.

However, Russia is now peaking.

Conventional oil (excluding NGL) production will drop to 3.1 billion tonnes by 2040 from the current 3.4 billion tonnes, and the long-discussed ‘conventional oil peak’ will occur in the period from 2015 to 2020. The drop in its extraction will be due to the gradual working-out of reserves of the largest existing fields.

The argument can be made that the US has now peaked as well.

[jennypenny]

I'm working on a project and haven't been watching the market today. I just checked my account and I had a couple of limit orders trip today. They are only partial executions. Two are for ONE share. People aren't buying one share, are they? It must be combined with another order in some way and I've just never seen it before.

[black_son_of_gray]

Anyone have any thoughts on the recent spate of food-born illnesses hammering Chipotle (NYSE:CMG)? The drop in price has knocked them back about 2 years...

[C40]

I'm no expert. I'm probably not even warranted to have an opinion. But I'm surprised Chipotle's price hasn't dropped much further.

[fiby41]

If anyone here has thought about or is investing in developing markets, I'd appreciate if you could share your thoughts.

[JL13]

If anyone here has thought about or is investing in developing markets, I'd appreciate if you could share your thoughts.

I haven't, but I was visiting Hungary last month for the first time and I was really surprised to find the city very clean and safe and so cheap! The population is well educated, and in Budapest a large portion of the population speaks English. The HUF has really taken a dive against the USD lately, most things were about 1/3 of the price here in the US, but it didn't feel like the third world at all. Cleaner and prettier than Rome with more English speakers!

I would be interested in learning more about the investing environment there.

[Chad]

I'm definitely investing in developing/emerging markets. They have been hit the hardest over the last few years and I like out of favor markets/stocks. Most of my overseas investing is with ETFs and funds, both indexes and managed funds. I'm not as confident in my ability to pick individual foreign stocks that aren't global companies. I'm starting to focus more on India and Africa now, as they both have good long-term demographic trends.

[cmonkey]

Anyone have any thoughts on the recent spate of food-born illnesses hammering Chipotle (NYSE:CMG)? The drop in price has knocked them back about 2 years...

I bought CMG back in 2013 and sold in 2014 making about a 20% profit on it in my HSA. Glad I sold when I did, I think this will set them back for a while. Ultimately I think they'll come back though. People tend to have pretty short memories for these sorts of things.

[JL13]

CMG is really an incredible company. They're earning 25% on equity in the bread and butter restaurant industry. If it ever gets down to a PE of 20 I think Buffett & Co would probably try to buy it out.

[cmonkey]

Anyone thinking of jumping on MW today? A good handful of analysts look to this just being a down year and then looking positive going forward. Dividend looks relatively safe and at 5% now. They have been overvalued for a while but have now swung wildly into undervaluation.

[George the original one]

Remember, the board ousted the founder of MW a few years ago, so it might not be the company it once was.

[cmonkey]

Yea I am not buying MW, I was just curious what others thought. If I was FI with a solid portfolio and just had extra to invest I probably would though.

[Chad]

The big issues for MW will be how the customers who frequented Jos. A. Banks react to ending the big specials.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/bus ... ree-sales/

And, how much online services will impact their business. I know I probably won't be going to MW for suits anymore, as I can get custom made suits online for the same price. No more need for me to wear off the rack suits that are altered. Plus, it appears services like Trunk Club are becoming popular.

Though, I would suspect you are correct in thinking it will recover once they work through these issues and adjust their business model a little. Could be a nice double or triple.

[jennypenny]

Wow.

Anyone bottom fishing yet? The indexes probably have a ways to go yet, but some sectors have bottomed. Lots of talk about names like AA and CLF in my group today. They are also itching to buy back into energy. SDRL, GPOR, and many MLPs were mentioned. I'm on the sidelines but only because I'm too busy to watch closely enough right now.