Investments Trade Log

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jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob » Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:43 pm

I feel tempted to cash out and take it permanently.

It's interesting that TGT and WMT both beat significantly and unexpectedly for the end-consumers given how the intermediate goods and delivery sector are declining. So about that recession ... where does it first materialize?

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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:52 pm

jacob wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:43 pm
I feel tempted to cash out and take it permanently.
TGT? Or the market as whole?

jacob
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:00 am

https://www.apnews.com/3b21f8af2045410581e0af41661fb7a5

The next round of the trade wars with 15% tariffs on imported "consumer stuff" begins tomorrow, so you might want to get your xmas shopping in today (unless you're buying sneakers and TVs which got a reprieve until 12/15... or DIYing the gifts). This time the tariffs target consumers, so not mainly farmers. There seems to be some consternation on whether the retail sector will be able to pass the cost onto consumers or whether they'll have to eat the cost themselves and lower earnings. Probably some combination of both.

JPM estimates the tariffs will cost the average household $1000/year. That average household must spend a lot^H^H^H^Hn average amount :-P

Jason
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:25 am

This reflects my thoughts on the matter:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/28/trump-a ... aucus.html

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Ego
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Ego » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:08 am

Jason wrote:
Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:25 am
This reflects my thoughts on the matter:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/28/trump-a ... aucus.html
I see the threat of tariffs as a 'something for nothing' strategy for Trump. He will do nothing (not implement tariffs) or remove them when each industry provides the requisite campaign tribute he deems suitable . It is the perfect leverage as he has the ability to direct it with pinpoint accuracy against those who have not shown sufficient largesse. We shall see.

Jason
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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Jason » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:22 am

I think its safe to assume that while Trump believes that tariffs have economic benefits, he does not understand fully the economic repercussions of tariffs. It appears that those who do understand tariffs, and support his imposition of them, say he is correct in principal, but not strategy. It's for him, more of a political strategy. It plays into his isolationism and they have been taking advantage of us for years narrative. Whatever he does or doesn't do, at the most politically opportune moment, he will jump out from behind the curtain and say "We made the best deal" and no one, including both him, me and his base, will know or care as long as everyone's portfolio is shitting more green than a leprechaun on St Patrick's Day.

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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by Seppia » Sat Aug 31, 2019 7:22 pm

@jacob
The retail sector operates at razor thin margins, so either the supplier take the hit, or the additional cost is going to be passed on to consumers 100%.
Brands with high product margins (Apple, P&G, etc) May be able to do so, but the cause of the increase being so obvious and known by the masses, I’d be surprised if they did.

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Re: Investments Trade Log

Post by jacob » Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:57 am

ECB drops rate from -0.4% to -0.5%. USD rises further.

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