COVID + Residential Real Estate?

How to avoid signing your life over to a mortgage
CS
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by CS »

@c40 yes, fracking. Wonder if that will continue to be a thing if these companies go bankrupt?

It sounds like a small thing, but it wasn't, at least not to me.

Kansas felt insecure enough then, but now, with the financial fallout that is coming, it might feel even worse. Perhaps I'm more sensitive to that as a woman, but I think there is value in being in a place where all are better off, even if a palace is not attainable on ere terms. Of course there is always the route of gun ownership.

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C40
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by C40 »

My friend who is (has been?) a lifelong pacifist recently bought a gun.

Also, I tell you what, there are so many environmental problems with so many places in the U.S.,.. when you start looking into it, it's like there are few safe places to live.

Utah? Radiation/Fallout from Nuclear testing.
Arizona? Water shortages, really high temperatures coming (projection are 3x more temperature increase than the global average increase)
Kentucky? big problems from mines. I forget what exactly
Areas with fracking? earthquakes, groundwater contamination
Agricultural areas? Groundwater contamination from fertilizer runoff

... and so on. And that's not even getting around to the people.


Anyway... I might try out a little personal exercise: to predict what cities will have more or less drop in real estate prices. I might try to look at the main types of business/employers in some cities and predict which will be hit the hardest in job loss, business/income loss, and thus real estate problems and price drops.

Some cities have things that I think are predictable, like:

Big impacts:
  • Aviation-related business in Wichita (though IDK how much is for commercial flight, vs for the air force?)
  • Tourism (Vegas)
  • Automobile industry
  • ? Various other non-essential consumer goods..
  • College towns?
Things that may reduce impact:
  • Government jobs - normal ones - fairly small capital cities (like Topeka? and Jefferson City?)...
  • Government jobs - military - (Tucson?... Wichita?... CA cities just north of San Diego?)
  • Cities with large industry of important consumer goods like food. (? a small town I worked at in Nebraska had maybe half the population working at three large food production plants)
  • ?
I doubt I'll do all that well at predictions.. and if I do, probably only fairly small cities with huge portions of people working in just one or two industries

aditya01
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by aditya01 »

Due to COVID-19, our lives are affected so much and many buyers who had decided to purchase a house in Ontario, Canada, they have dropped the idea due to economic conditions. However, many experts have been predicting that there will be a drop in the residential selling prices because of unemployment and reduced travel or tourism, which are impacting short-term rental business.
Landlords who have multi-residential properties offering to postpone rent for one or two months for those who need it. With this, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced commercial rent relief for small businesses affected by COVID-19 pandemic.

ertyu
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by ertyu »

dropping prices would be wonderful. unfortunately i follow a couple of property websites local to me and prices don't seem to be budging :/

thrifty++
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by thrifty++ »

It seems to be impacting the centre of large cities in Australia the most, which makes a lot of sense. https://www.businessinsider.com.au/aust ... ZQPHM9LJWI

Seems only natural for the centre of large cities to be most affected by price drops. Due the increased risk of infection in the age of the pandemic. Being confined to smaller less pleasant apartment spaces in lockdown also. Have more food insecurity. Being in the centre of a ghost town with none of the usual benefits of being in the city centre during a lockdown. The rise in remote working. The rise in unemployment.

I think the same thing is happening in NZ but to a lesser extent. Wellington is less impacted because its the government city where unemployment will still be low. You can see how Canberra is not really impacted likely for the same reason. Auckland city centre will be getting impacted like Sydney and Melbourne I would say is highly likely. We just don't have the data yet. Al the other cities in NZ are too small and have such low population density it wont be impacted the same. But Queenstown in NZ, the tourist city in the centre of the South Island mountain range, has been hit hard. Its gone from the most unaffordable city to one with a totally stuffed economy where landlords are unable to find tenants. So in NZ, central Auckland and Queenstown seem the most affected. Which is ironic as they were the two most unaffordable places in NZ prior to COVID19.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by thrifty++ »

ertyu wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:02 am
So far in my home town the effect is that a shitton of property has been put on the market all at once - at the old, high prices. This is mostly the real estate agents who usually have first hand information on any listings and buy the best properties to flip later. Those guys have apparently called the top. I am in the market and there are properties I like, but the asking price is about 1/2 to 3/4 of my NW, which is too expensive. I am not sure exactly what sellers are thinking. I have enough to pay for a property like that after having worked abroad my entire career and it's still steep. How could locals who earn 1/10th of my salary if they're lucky + have kids ever afford it??
My god that sounds so cheap. I would be lucky to get something twice my net worth, but t still wouldn't be somewhere very satisfying. Where are you that property is so cheap?

ertyu
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by ertyu »

thrifty++ wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 1:57 pm
Where are you that property is so cheap?
Buttfuck nowhere eastern europe. It's really not cheap considering the city is depopulating and it's, well, buttfuck nowhere eastern europe. It's definitely not cheap relative to local incomes and earning prospects. you'd spend for an apartment here an amount of money that i'm told gets you a house in the netherlands. it's ridiculous.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by thrifty++ »

@ertyu - interesting. In a big city or a small one?

tonyedgecombe
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by tonyedgecombe »

thrifty++ wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 1:54 pm
Seems only natural for the centre of large cities to be most affected by price drops. Due the increased risk of infection in the age of the pandemic. Being confined to smaller less pleasant apartment spaces in lockdown also. Have more food insecurity. Being in the centre of a ghost town with none of the usual benefits of being in the city centre during a lockdown. The rise in remote working. The rise in unemployment.
If that's a general trend then I'll be quite happy as we plan to move in the opposite direction, to somewhere smaller and less rural.

chenda
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by chenda »

Interesting analysis from the NYT showing where people have fled to. A similar pattern has happened in Europe.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... pe=Article

I am very grateful to be living during corona at the edge of a very small city, ~ 35 000, with well supplied supermarkets, healthcare and other amenities, but also next to open countryside with farm shops and open spaces. I don't blame New Yorkers wanting to leave, I expect but these central areas will recover quite quickly.

Edit: Feeding Freezing in The Hamptons: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/real ... ion=footer

nomadscientist
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by nomadscientist »

ertyu wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:02 am
So far in my home town the effect is that a shitton of property has been put on the market all at once - at the old, high prices. This is mostly the real estate agents who usually have first hand information on any listings and buy the best properties to flip later. Those guys have apparently called the top. I am in the market and there are properties I like, but the asking price is about 1/2 to 3/4 of my NW, which is too expensive. I am not sure exactly what sellers are thinking. I have enough to pay for a property like that after having worked abroad my entire career and it's still steep. How could locals who earn 1/10th of my salary if they're lucky + have kids ever afford it??
I feel exactly the same about my (not depopulating, Western European) home country. I feel like I would not be that comfortable buying a house where I live in the US with FX-adjusted salaries 2-3x as high as back home and when I look at my parents' neighbourhood in the old country (nice but nothing special) I see that prices are even higher...

Yet these houses are not unoccupied. Many of them are quite new. Someone must be buying them.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by thrifty++ »

Anyone else seeing any impact on property yet?

In NZ Im seeing it. Well, proper detached houses do not seem impacted at this stage. But it does seem quite obviously in the apartment market in the central city areas of the biggest cities. Most apartments are not selling, the vast majority of auctions are passing in as unsold, for those apartments that do selll it seems 90% are selling at less than 2017 valuation and most of them by a large margin. So its to trends. Proper houses not impacted but apartments taking a hit.

What about elsewhere?

tonyedgecombe
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by tonyedgecombe »

The last survey I saw in the UK showed prices down 1.7% YOY. The volume of house sales have gone through the floor.

As we have a services based economy (well we used to) and we still have Brexit looming at the end of the year I'm expecting much worse to come.

chenda
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by chenda »

tonyedgecombe wrote:
Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:20 am
The last survey I saw in the UK showed prices down 1.7% YOY. The volume of house sales have gone through the floor.

As we have a services based economy (well we used to) and we still have Brexit looming at the end of the year I'm expecting much worse to come.
I don't know how much supply shortage will shore up prices in certain areas, maybe not much with mass unemployment. We also may see something of a 'back to the land' movement like in the 1970s.

rube
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by rube »

In the Netherlands even more transactions. No declining prices yet either, though declines are predicted for next year. Though predicted declines are still limited compared to absurd gains last couple of years.
I read an article that said Spain is expecting declining prices.
We'll see.

Riggerjack
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by Riggerjack »

Well, I listed a house last week. 5 offers, all over asking price, under contract in 4 days.

Real estate hasn't slowed down in the Puget sound, yet.

But I expect it will, Boeing just announced they are laying off 10k workers here. And so it begins.

classical_Liberal
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by classical_Liberal »

Locally, in my neck of the woods, single family homes, condos/townhomes are still going very strong. I have noted an uptick in new listings for smaller multi-units, 2-4. They are actually at reasonable listing prices too, as they are passing the 1% smell test.

A year ago the few multi-units that were listed were waaay too expensive to bother with further analysis. I wonder if all the Federal interference (ie halting evictions), the recent social pushes for more rent controls in bigger cities, ect, has some mom & pop investors spooked. Trying to get out while the gett'en is still good?

Riggerjack
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by Riggerjack »

Trying to get out while the gett'en is still good?
That's my plan.

chenda
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by chenda »

Riggerjack wrote:
Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:33 pm
That's my plan.
Do you know yet how you'll invest the money once its sold ?

Riggerjack
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by Riggerjack »

Pay off my existing mortgage, then wait and see. Some of the proceeds will fund my garage/workshop.

Buying near historical highs, while the effects of C19/lockdown don't yet seem priced in, doesn't appeal to me.

This is a defensive, plan for the worst strategy. I don't want to be a landlord, anymore, and housing prices seem very 2007-8, to me.

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