COVID + Residential Real Estate?

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wheatstate
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by wheatstate »

Lots of interesting thoughts.

I agree, Katy trail is totally awesome and a great resource. The Rock Island spur just connected Katy trail to KC. Kansas is doing some rail to trails with Prairie Spirit Trail and Flint Hills trail. Riding the Katy trail shows how a rail trail develops. Now, the Katy is super nice with good surface, drainage, smooth road crossings. Towns every 10 miles have water, food and restrooms. Some of these other trails are a lot younger and less developed.

Wichita overall, I think it is nice. I would confirm the area you wanted to live before purchasing. Do vanlife there for a month. Do a rental like you did in the southwest. Real estate is not liquid and has transaction costs on both sides. Some of Wichita's development was a flight to the suburbs with the "best" schools for midwest families with good aviation jobs. With no geographic barriers and minimal traffic, this created a ring around the city. There has been some redevelopment in the center with old town and along the river. Wichita is a big aviation town. The aviation industry has its ups and downs. I am not sure how the aviation industry will come out of Covid.

Fracking. Yes, I feel fracking earthquakes a couple times a year in Kansas. If Covid halts fracking oil production, that would be a positive for me.

If you say Kansas is too windy, you should find some wind sports. I like kiteboarding and sailing. On no wind days, you bike. :) A cool plus. Recently on a particular day, Kansas recently produced more wind power than coal power.

There is definitely a lot of positives for a Midwest life.

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C40
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by C40 »

wheatstate wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:05 pm
Wichita overall, I think it is nice. I would confirm the area you wanted to live before purchasing. Do vanlife there for a month. Do a rental like you did in the southwest. Real estate is not liquid and has transaction costs on both sides. Some of Wichita's development was a flight to the suburbs with the "best" schools for midwest families with good aviation jobs. With no geographic barriers and minimal traffic, this created a ring around the city. There has been some redevelopment in the center with old town and along the river. Wichita is a big aviation town. The aviation industry has its ups and downs. I am not sure how the aviation industry will come out of Covid.

Fracking. Yes, I feel fracking earthquakes a couple times a year in Kansas. If Covid halts fracking oil production, that would be a positive for me.

If you say Kansas is too windy, you should find some wind sports. I like kiteboarding and sailing. On no wind days, you bike. :) A cool plus. Recently on a particular day, Kansas recently produced more wind power than coal power.

There is definitely a lot of positives for a Midwest life.
Thanks for the info. I already sold the van. I have hung out in Wichita with the van for 2-3 weeks total. Long enough to see that I'm cool with the city. Not yet sure about the people. Wherever I do go, I will probably rent there for ~6 month to make sure I like it enough and then/also to have somewhere to live while I search for a home to buy. In Wichita, I'd probably rent a house since they are so cheap.

As for the flight out of the center of the city - that's perfect for me, in large cities at least, like St Louis. It results in the child-less people congregating there, which I appreciate.

(wasn't me who mentioned the wind). That's not a big deal for me. Even when bicycling. I just go slower one direction and faster the other. No big deal. Sometimes a lot of wind is a problem for me with allergies, but so far I've been able to eliminate my allergies by eating honey.

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C40
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by C40 »

Also, Wheatstate - have you spent much time in Topeka? What do you think of it?

A year or two ago, when I was down in Oklahoma, I saw a dream property for sale in Topeka. (2 or 3 acres in the city, a combination mechanics shop / home, really cheap)

wheatstate
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by wheatstate »

That sounds like a good visit to Wichita and a great way to test the market. I would probably do the same with Topeka.

With the wind on the bike, We climb mtns of wind and then enjoy the tailwind home.

I like Topeka. Good mtb, road and gravel options. Pro bike racer, Steve Tilford lived there and built a good cycling community.Swing dance club. Huge Mexican Fiesta 5-block street party in June. NoTo, North Topeka art district. Art walks on first Friday of the month. Local breweries opening up, currently four. River access to the Kaw. Community bike co-op. Washburn University.

The negative. I am sure you can handle this. Part of this is you probably won't find a "perfect" place with the lowest cost of living. A bike friend was killed in his home in Topeka last year. Young, active, likeable. Shot at night, not many clues. Probably won't be solved. The bike Topeka FB page frequently has stolen bikes, probably from drug users.

I have friends living great lives in Topeka. I might add Emporia, Kansas to the list. Dirty Kanza bike community has exploded. Huge disc golf scene. Emporia State University.

Lawrence and KC suburbs is where I have spent the most time, and there are good options here.

CS
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by CS »

@c40 yes, fracking. Wonder if that will continue to be a thing if these companies go bankrupt?

It sounds like a small thing, but it wasn't, at least not to me.

Kansas felt insecure enough then, but now, with the financial fallout that is coming, it might feel even worse. Perhaps I'm more sensitive to that as a woman, but I think there is value in being in a place where all are better off, even if a palace is not attainable on ere terms. Of course there is always the route of gun ownership.

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C40
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by C40 »

My friend who is (has been?) a lifelong pacifist recently bought a gun.

Also, I tell you what, there are so many environmental problems with so many places in the U.S.,.. when you start looking into it, it's like there are few safe places to live.

Utah? Radiation/Fallout from Nuclear testing.
Arizona? Water shortages, really high temperatures coming (projection are 3x more temperature increase than the global average increase)
Kentucky? big problems from mines. I forget what exactly
Areas with fracking? earthquakes, groundwater contamination
Agricultural areas? Groundwater contamination from fertilizer runoff

... and so on. And that's not even getting around to the people.


Anyway... I might try out a little personal exercise: to predict what cities will have more or less drop in real estate prices. I might try to look at the main types of business/employers in some cities and predict which will be hit the hardest in job loss, business/income loss, and thus real estate problems and price drops.

Some cities have things that I think are predictable, like:

Big impacts:
  • Aviation-related business in Wichita (though IDK how much is for commercial flight, vs for the air force?)
  • Tourism (Vegas)
  • Automobile industry
  • ? Various other non-essential consumer goods..
  • College towns?
Things that may reduce impact:
  • Government jobs - normal ones - fairly small capital cities (like Topeka? and Jefferson City?)...
  • Government jobs - military - (Tucson?... Wichita?... CA cities just north of San Diego?)
  • Cities with large industry of important consumer goods like food. (? a small town I worked at in Nebraska had maybe half the population working at three large food production plants)
  • ?
I doubt I'll do all that well at predictions.. and if I do, probably only fairly small cities with huge portions of people working in just one or two industries

aditya01
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by aditya01 »

Due to COVID-19, our lives are affected so much and many buyers who had decided to purchase a house in Ontario, Canada, they have dropped the idea due to economic conditions. However, many experts have been predicting that there will be a drop in the residential selling prices because of unemployment and reduced travel or tourism, which are impacting short-term rental business.
Landlords who have multi-residential properties offering to postpone rent for one or two months for those who need it. With this, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced commercial rent relief for small businesses affected by COVID-19 pandemic.

ertyu
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by ertyu »

dropping prices would be wonderful. unfortunately i follow a couple of property websites local to me and prices don't seem to be budging :/

thrifty++
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by thrifty++ »

It seems to be impacting the centre of large cities in Australia the most, which makes a lot of sense. https://www.businessinsider.com.au/aust ... ZQPHM9LJWI

Seems only natural for the centre of large cities to be most affected by price drops. Due the increased risk of infection in the age of the pandemic. Being confined to smaller less pleasant apartment spaces in lockdown also. Have more food insecurity. Being in the centre of a ghost town with none of the usual benefits of being in the city centre during a lockdown. The rise in remote working. The rise in unemployment.

I think the same thing is happening in NZ but to a lesser extent. Wellington is less impacted because its the government city where unemployment will still be low. You can see how Canberra is not really impacted likely for the same reason. Auckland city centre will be getting impacted like Sydney and Melbourne I would say is highly likely. We just don't have the data yet. Al the other cities in NZ are too small and have such low population density it wont be impacted the same. But Queenstown in NZ, the tourist city in the centre of the South Island mountain range, has been hit hard. Its gone from the most unaffordable city to one with a totally stuffed economy where landlords are unable to find tenants. So in NZ, central Auckland and Queenstown seem the most affected. Which is ironic as they were the two most unaffordable places in NZ prior to COVID19.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by thrifty++ »

ertyu wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:02 am
So far in my home town the effect is that a shitton of property has been put on the market all at once - at the old, high prices. This is mostly the real estate agents who usually have first hand information on any listings and buy the best properties to flip later. Those guys have apparently called the top. I am in the market and there are properties I like, but the asking price is about 1/2 to 3/4 of my NW, which is too expensive. I am not sure exactly what sellers are thinking. I have enough to pay for a property like that after having worked abroad my entire career and it's still steep. How could locals who earn 1/10th of my salary if they're lucky + have kids ever afford it??
My god that sounds so cheap. I would be lucky to get something twice my net worth, but t still wouldn't be somewhere very satisfying. Where are you that property is so cheap?

ertyu
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by ertyu »

thrifty++ wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 1:57 pm
Where are you that property is so cheap?
Buttfuck nowhere eastern europe. It's really not cheap considering the city is depopulating and it's, well, buttfuck nowhere eastern europe. It's definitely not cheap relative to local incomes and earning prospects. you'd spend for an apartment here an amount of money that i'm told gets you a house in the netherlands. it's ridiculous.

thrifty++
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by thrifty++ »

@ertyu - interesting. In a big city or a small one?

tonyedgecombe
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by tonyedgecombe »

thrifty++ wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 1:54 pm
Seems only natural for the centre of large cities to be most affected by price drops. Due the increased risk of infection in the age of the pandemic. Being confined to smaller less pleasant apartment spaces in lockdown also. Have more food insecurity. Being in the centre of a ghost town with none of the usual benefits of being in the city centre during a lockdown. The rise in remote working. The rise in unemployment.
If that's a general trend then I'll be quite happy as we plan to move in the opposite direction, to somewhere smaller and less rural.

chenda
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by chenda »

Interesting analysis from the NYT showing where people have fled to. A similar pattern has happened in Europe.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... pe=Article

I am very grateful to be living during corona at the edge of a very small city, ~ 35 000, with well supplied supermarkets, healthcare and other amenities, but also next to open countryside with farm shops and open spaces. I don't blame New Yorkers wanting to leave, I expect but these central areas will recover quite quickly.

Edit: Feeding Freezing in The Hamptons: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/real ... ion=footer

nomadscientist
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Re: COVID + Residential Real Estate?

Post by nomadscientist »

ertyu wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:02 am
So far in my home town the effect is that a shitton of property has been put on the market all at once - at the old, high prices. This is mostly the real estate agents who usually have first hand information on any listings and buy the best properties to flip later. Those guys have apparently called the top. I am in the market and there are properties I like, but the asking price is about 1/2 to 3/4 of my NW, which is too expensive. I am not sure exactly what sellers are thinking. I have enough to pay for a property like that after having worked abroad my entire career and it's still steep. How could locals who earn 1/10th of my salary if they're lucky + have kids ever afford it??
I feel exactly the same about my (not depopulating, Western European) home country. I feel like I would not be that comfortable buying a house where I live in the US with FX-adjusted salaries 2-3x as high as back home and when I look at my parents' neighbourhood in the old country (nice but nothing special) I see that prices are even higher...

Yet these houses are not unoccupied. Many of them are quite new. Someone must be buying them.

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