Climate Change: Fact, Fiction, Something in Between?

[ohcanada]

"Stop feeding the troll" guys. Overt purposeful stupidity is best ignored.

[steveo73]

It's also interesting how humans...(then add whatever quaint saying we want)

Can't think for themselves but pretend they can.

[Chad]

Exactly. The use of belief instead of actual information leads to this ridiculously long thread.

[steveo73]

Exactly. The use of belief instead of actual information leads to this ridiculously long thread.

I don't think its that simple. I think people believe stuff that is quoted as being proven via statistics or science or from an enlightened (in their opinions) source.

You probably think that GW is proven and yet its pretty easy to poke some substantial holes in the theory. So your idea of information within this topic is to trust the conventional wisdom whereas mine is to do some research for myself (admittedly I did study GW in university) and actually be analytical. Most GW proponents (at least on this thread) are not being analytical and cannot admit the simple fact (and this is a reality) that the earths climate is not a simple thing to model and it is definitely more complex than increased man-made CO2 leads to increased temperatures. Seriously this is the base point from where to get started from and it seems so hard for people to admit this. I don't think they are dumb or uneducated its just that it goes against their belief system.

Note this is just on this topic but it will carry over to lots of areas. I can't be bothered for instance to pick shares and I intend to use index funds and not think about it. Maybe some people are more analytical on different topics than I am.

[jacob]

Impacts specific to the US with much more detail than the IPCC reports.
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/downloads

[Hankaroundtheworld]

I tested this subject with some colleagues and connections, most of them with enough brains & university degree. The conclusion: Most of the people do not care, just busy with their daily lives and worries, then there are people that do understand, but believe nature (Gaia) will correct it (even if this leads to millions of deads), and then a small group worries about it, but do not know how to make a positive contribution.
Conclusion (but I think you know this already): things needs to go much more worse, before we see people changing their behavior, and that means indeed, economic impact and suffering (both for humans as many other species). We can only hope it will not be that bad ...

[slimicy]

An interesting new model:

Both the CO2 model and the new solar model are viable explanations of the global warming of the last century. Any linear mix (e.g. 60% CO2, 40% solar) also fits the observed temperatures. On the performance of the models over the last century, we cannot tell which is correct. However, over the next decade the models predict dramatically different things: the CO2 model of course predicts warming, while the solar model predicts a sharp fall in temperature very soon.

http://joannenova.com.au/2014/06/big-ne ... el-coming/

[workathome]

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/06 ... nt-page-3/

[Tyler9000]

The challenge issued by Dr. Christopher Keating, a professor who previously taught at the University of South Dakota and the U.S. Naval Academy, according to a news release, will award prize money to anyone who uses the scientific method to prove that human activity has not been a factor leading to climate change.

I hate strawman crap like this. The real issue is not whether man has an effect on the climate -- even cold-hearted warming athiests will happily concede that point. But the degree of human contribution relative to natural causes, the accuracy of computer models, the veracity of doomsday storytelling, and the efficacy, cost, and measurability of any proposed "fix" are all worthy of reasonable discussion.

[Chad]

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/07/su ... he-future/

[jacob]

Try Phoenix, AZ

[dragoncar]

Try Phoenix, AZ

San Francisco will be gorgeous.

[jacob]

Yeah, some localities will definitely benefit, temperature-wise. The PNW remains the best long term bet for Americans all things considered. One thing that the "average summer temperature" map doesn't consider if how to run the A/C. I bet Phoenix (my favorite example of a really bad idea as far as cities go) didn't consider the heat island effect when it calculated the temperature. Also water supply---San Francisco might be gorgeous, but it might also be out of water.

I was surprised to see that the east coast will have larger shifts than the west coast. Basically Boston, MA will become the new Florida. Even Maine is not immune.

[Dragline]

Or Northern Minnesota maybe. Duluth only moves to Illinois.

[Chad]

Yeah, the east coast, including Maine, really surprised me. Portland, ME becomes Virginia and that's too hot for me.

Vancouver will probably be spectacular.

[jennypenny]

Vancouver will probably be spectacular.

It already is!

Real estate is sky high there. Imagine how high it will go if that app is right.

[Chad]

Vancouver will probably be spectacular.

It already is!

Real estate is sky high there. Imagine how high it will go if that app is right.

Yeah, real estate would be even more astronomical than it already is. Cool summers and somewhat mild winters with the ocean and world class skiing all with in decent drives. It sounds like my perfect city, except for the price.

[Chad]

Try Phoenix, AZ

I wouldn't live in Phoenix now, let alone then. Just a dumb place for a city. Also, Vegas...

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/wate ... w-24476761

Though, at least Vegas has some redeeming sinful qualities.

[Tyler9000]

"If current emissions trends continue"

I wonder which trend they assume -- the long-term hockey stick since the industrial revolution, or the decade-long modern dip riding the fracking trend.



The problem I have with future projections of temperatures is that it too often blurs the lines between science and science fiction, and is only as good as the assumptions.

In any case -- if the projections are right, I'm happy to move to sunny Colorado if push comes to shove.

[George the original one]

Is that chart looking at USA-only or are they looking at the world?