Early Retirement Extreme Forums

@ Lemur Yes, both of those apply to me. (a) Lack of socialization due to Covid would get better in a few months, though socialization would be primarily family members in my case. I am at the stage in life when college friends have mostly drifted apart and I don't yet have friends via my kid's frien...

And: 9. I have recently realized I am more ISTP than INTP or INTJ. I think in the past taking MBTI tests while working and being in the ERE mindset, I may have biased my answers toward being "free" and independent, as well as toward the plethora of opportunities and broad learning I wanted...

@LuckyC, would you go into bonds or stay in cash when you reduce equity exposure? Right now aside from equities I have a combo of cash, intermediate US government bonds, gold, silver, and diversified commodities that are heavily influenced by oil prices (via PDBC which allows commodity exposure wit...

I am equipped mentally to deal with a 50% drop, which might come in 1-2 months, with the last big run until December before the next few years of sideways start again. But, yeah, plan is to wait for the last upside in this 4 cycle. Sounds like a rock solid plan. Just short Bitcoin for the next 1-2 ...

I am now thinking of going back to my previous place of employment after nearly two years FIREd. Reasoning in no particular order: 1. While it wasn't a "fun" job, I liked it there well enough. I did well while improving my skills (even achieving Flow sometimes!) and had the respect of supe...

when interest rates get high enough to cause a significant market correction My view was short term based on news & sentiment of the past few weeks-months, so "significant market correction" was what I was thinking one might want to prepare for, if their allocation is a bit high due t...

Covid is "ending" (optimism about economic recovery is high). Stimmies this week might bump stocks up a bit more. People will be going back to work more in person where they won't have as much opportunity to day trade. Speculative mania has been falling from very high levels. Divergence in...

I just eat more cold foods and microwave or pressure cooker meals during heat waves. If a summer day is unusually cold, that's when we do our baking

You might be thinking about home heating wrong in a bunch of different ways, depending on your home's particular quirks. In my case, I have forced hot air with an oil burner and didn't have a lot of insulation, but the biggest jump in our efficiency was changing part of our ductwork. A couple years ...

Hasn't that already been extremely priced in? Copper futures are near all time highs, having doubled in price in the past year. Also down 7% in the past week. The metals and agriculture futures that surged in past months before mainstream media inflation talk have now slowed down or rolled over sinc...

Barrick Gold (GOLD) is back at pre-pandemic prices. In Q4 2020: - Dalio bought GOLD (has traded it several times but is long term bullish on gold / bearish on USD, see his public posts) - Druckenmiller sold GOLD (has traded it several times over the years, trying to get the most out of trends) - Buf...

Wrong about bonds having a short term bounce back up / yields bouncing back down, so I sold that little stake.
Today I'm glad I'm not holding much in bonds, or stocks for that matter.

Eh it's just for a week or two, since that's how long it takes a deeply oversold situation to go back to normal, with under 3% of my net worth. I don't have any other bonds so my bond allocation is well below what most financial advisors would recommend. Good chance it will stay in a +/-5% range ove...

Bonds are extremely oversold with the spike yesterday seeming to be a clue of an inflection point or simply overreaction. Bought a tiny amount of bonds a couple days ago (had 0% in bonds previously) and maybe more today. 10Y back down below 1.5% now. Even if this is now a long term bond bear market,...

Historically you'd want to go after trends in the 3 month to 12 month range and avoid trends of about 5 years due to mean reversion. At least that's the case for indices / asset classes. SPY in early 2008 had a great 5-year trend and a poor 6-month trend, for example. Individual stocks seem to be ha...

Why not Kroger?

Lemur wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 24, 2021 4:51 pm

COSTCO ...
Anyone have quick bearish reasons to not like this stock?

1. Its price is going down
2. All insider selling, no insider buying
3. Just announced $16 min wage

Don't think that you're missing some fundamental rule if you try to apply logic to mania, especially on a very noisy time scale of only a few days.

So, how would you identify the speculative things to put money into now, and do you have any specific ideas :) For shorter term trends/fads, see what teenagers are getting into now that they weren't a few months ago. They have the means to buy the product but not invest in the company, and it takes...

@white belt My desire for "some" cash allocation is not a bet on deflation. I have been making money from energy, miners, gold, silver, and other commodities. And I have been avoiding losing money recently by not holding bonds. So you could say I am very much "net long" on inflat...