Optionality/High Risk High Reward Speculation Via.....Sports Betting?

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Mister Imperceptible
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Optionality/High Risk High Reward Speculation Via.....Sports Betting?

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Mon May 14, 2018 4:58 pm

U.S. Supreme Court Overturns Federal Ban on Sports Gambling

https://www.si.com/more-sports/2018/05/ ... -las-vegas

If one is implementing a 90% super-safe/10% super-speculative strategy to get best risk-adjusted returns, perhaps to go along with those microcap equities and out-of-the-money options, one makes a few bets on the big underdog, if they know a thing or two about sports handicapping?

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Seppia
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Re: Optionality/High Risk High Reward Speculation Via.....Sports Betting?

Post by Seppia » Mon May 14, 2018 5:04 pm

Mmmmh
Unless you're Haralabos Voulgaris, I would still put my money on Vegas being better at pricing these things VS you.
Of course you can get lucky, but in probabilistic terms it's a losing game (I don't like losing games)

Peanut
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Re: Optionality/High Risk High Reward Speculation Via.....Sports Betting?

Post by Peanut » Mon May 14, 2018 7:30 pm

Hey, a lot of sports books lost big on the Super Bowl this year. Go for it!

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Optionality/High Risk High Reward Speculation Via.....Sports Betting?

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Mon May 14, 2018 7:54 pm

I’ll take the Rockets tonight and give points. Chris Paul knows this is his chance.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Optionality/High Risk High Reward Speculation Via.....Sports Betting?

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Tue May 15, 2018 9:08 am

Someone is already coming to break my legs!

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C40
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Re: Optionality/High Risk High Reward Speculation Via.....Sports Betting?

Post by C40 » Tue May 15, 2018 12:12 pm

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Smashter
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Re: Optionality/High Risk High Reward Speculation Via.....Sports Betting?

Post by Smashter » Tue May 15, 2018 1:45 pm

The line for Rockets vs. Warriors Game two is the exact same as game one, even after that beatdown the Warriors just handed out. Interesting. I would lose so much money gambling on sports.

Jason
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Re: Optionality/High Risk High Reward Speculation Via.....Sports Betting?

Post by Jason » Tue May 15, 2018 2:45 pm

Gambling scares the life out of me. I never had a problem but just watching The Soprano's episode where the guy loses his sporting goods store in a high stakes poker game scares me to death.

That being said, a multi-billion dollar underground economy is now rising through the earth. This is as devastating a blow to organized crime as RICO. Although not a gambler in the traditional sense, I will be looking for opportunities to gamble on gambling which I guess makes me a gambler. I would be interested to get people's opinions on whether this will impact Bitcoin. Just thinking of all the stoned jersey wearing people gambling on football with bitcoin, there has to be a way to make some coin here.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Optionality/High Risk High Reward Speculation Via.....Sports Betting?

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Tue May 15, 2018 4:56 pm

The government saw the average dope getting raked over the coals playing FanDuel against all the pros running algos and scripts, they decided to get a piece of the action.

Soon they might have some sense and start similarly profiting from legalized and taxed marijuana. I guess they are too busy in the meantime importing opioids from Afghanistan and decreasing the surplus population.

Our government is pretty much the Mafia at this point.

Jason
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Re: Optionality/High Risk High Reward Speculation Via.....Sports Betting?

Post by Jason » Wed May 16, 2018 4:34 am

The government and the professional leagues have known about the extent of gambling forever, way before fantasy sports. Jimmy The Greek introduced the football betting line into the popular culture in the 1970's. Although the legal decision was a federal vs. states rights issue, this was about the leagues themselves controlling their and profiting from their own product.


Jason
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Re: Optionality/High Risk High Reward Speculation Via.....Sports Betting?

Post by Jason » Sat May 19, 2018 7:24 am

@MI -

Yes. Good flick and good story.

I don't know if you have seen this one on fantasy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdspviDAV7E

This was also good for people interested.

http://www.espn.com/30for30/film?page=playingforthemob

NFL football seems to be the sport most in need of legalization. It's popularity is waning and they can use the revenue. From a local government position - New Jersey, Connecticut etc. - states that already have casinos as tourist destinations have a leg up with infrastructure.

I guess the big loser will be opioids, as it's preeminence in addiction behavior might be challenged.

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bryan
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Re: Optionality/High Risk High Reward Speculation Via.....Sports Betting?

Post by bryan » Sat May 19, 2018 3:52 pm

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7983&p=123175#p123175
bryan wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2016 7:54 pm
irl there are plenty of bets to be made where the odds of the bet don't align to the real probabilities of the event occurring (see: information asymmetry. insider trading). The main issue is the lack of ubiquitous, popular, or reliable platforms to place bets and receive payouts for a variety of events occurring. Only sports betting seems to have enough interest/activity to have developed adequate platforms (consider also stock trading and insurance).
I've been a fan of betting but have never done anything over $1000 iirc. I don't keep track of my returns as I should (a tool to do this more seamlessly would be useful, valuable) but for sure two years ago I under-performed S&P and three, four years ago I killed the S&P. I considered incorporating sports betting into my portfolio about two years ago (and promptly had a loss for the year, putting it to the bottom of my concerns)..

There are issues with the platforms, markets for betting, even for sports. One obvious one is not being able to make the correctly sized bet when you need to. For example, you have a 50% edge on an upcoming event and calculate that you should bet $15,000 on it, but when you go to make the bet you find that the platform, broker, whatever will only allow a $2000 max bet for this particular event.

So if anyone is considering adding active sports betting to their portfolio, just be sure to investigate the risks, as always. Maybe the recent ruling will help with some of the risks, problems (and introduce some new old ones, like corruption and insider dealing).

MarginVariation
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Re: Optionality/High Risk High Reward Speculation Via.....Sports Betting?

Post by MarginVariation » Sun May 20, 2018 7:59 am

I too am attempting to implement barbell type strategies. What other domains of investments are you seeking in the 10% optionality?

I've done prop betting for awhile, the problem is leaving money in all sorts of places to find the right price. Many are limited in bet size too.

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